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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">Erdogan's double game: Praising Palestine, aiding Israel</h1><p class="gmail-">While
the Turkish president loudly praises the Palestinian resistance, he is
quietly and ferociously pursuing pro-Israel economic and energy
policies.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><p><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/authors/mohamad-hasan-sweidan" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">Mohamad Hasan Sweidan</a></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span>JAN 18, 2024 - </span><font size="1"><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/erdogans-double-game-praising-palestine-aiding-israel">https://new.thecradle.co/articles/erdogans-double-game-praising-palestine-aiding-israel</a></font></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/e42f0ef8-b620-11ee-b3c5-00163e02c055.jpeg" alt="" width="417" height="197" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Once idolized for schooling then-Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres on war crimes before famously storming off at the 2009 </span></span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/11079"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Davos Summit</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again struck out by </span></span><a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/erdogan-orders-officials-skip-davos-over-gaza-war-report"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">ordering</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> officials to </span></span><a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/erdogan-orders-officials-skip-davos-over-gaza-war-report"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">boycott</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) over Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Anyone
who has paid attention to Erdogan's statements since the onset of the
war could be forgiven for thinking that Turkiye is at the forefront of
nations opposing Israel and </span></span><a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/10/30/turkish-president-erdogan-champions-the-palestinian-cause-fiercely-attacks-israel_6213559_4.html"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">championing </span><span lang="EN-US" dir="ltr">the Palestinian cause</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">. Few around the world are as willing to adopt as sharp a rhetoric against Tel Aviv's</span></span><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> policies </span><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">as the populist Turkish head of state is. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>Erdogan designates Israel a ‘terror state’ </strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">However,
even by Erdogan's standards, his language took a sharp turn following
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October and the subsequent Israeli military
assault on Gaza, when he dubbed Israel a “</span></span><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/15/turkeys-erdogan-calls-israel-a-terror-state-criticises-the-west"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">terror state</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">.”</span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">The
Turkish president even lashed out at his NATO partners, saying: “While
we curse the Israeli administration, we do not forget those who openly
support these massacres and those who go out of their way to legitimize
them,” in reference to the US and other western allies of Israel, before
proclaiming: “We are faced with a genocide” in Gaza. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Initially,
Erdogan cautioned for calm and emphasized the importance of preserving
civilian lives on both sides, in a likely effort to mitigate Ankara’s </span></span><a href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210614-the-only-turkish-boots-on-the-ground-in-palestine-are-on-israeli-soldiers-feet/"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">well-established relations</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">
with Tel Aviv and the west. However, as shocking images of Israeli
atrocities began circulating widely on social media and as public
sentiment in Turkiye began shifting, Erdogan's rhetoric evolved to
reflect the same concerns. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Fueled
by unexpected support from Turkiye’s secular opposition in favor of
Palestinians, Erdogan abandoned his earlier, measured tone and embraced a
more characteristic, high-ceilinged rhetoric. Demanding an end to the
massacres committed by the occupation state, Erdogan not only led street
demonstrations against Israel but also criticized its supporters.</span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Yet,
true to Erdogan's style, the lofty rhetoric has not translated into
tangible action. Instead, it appears designed to manage Turkish public
opinion and underscore Ankara's potential role in any resolution of the
conflict. Recognizing the likelihood of a domestic political shift in
Israel that would </span></span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-war-within-israels-war-cabinet"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">end Benjamin Netanyahu</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">'s political career, Erdogan has strategically focused his attacks on the Israeli prime minister – even comparing Netanyahu to </span></span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-israeli-pm-netanyahu-no-different-hitler-2023-12-27/"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Adolf Hitler</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> – while maintaining normal trade relations with the Israeli government.</span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm;text-align:justify"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>Blanking Bibi, but money talks </strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">In a bold move on 3 November, while recalling the Turkish ambassador to Israel, Erdogan </span></span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/erdogan-says-netanyahu-no-longer-someone-turkey-can-talk-to-we-have-written-him-off/"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">declared</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">:
“Netanyahu is no longer someone we can talk to. We have written him
off.” Despite this diplomatic disavowal, trade between Turkiye and
Israel continues to flourish, with Turkish exports to Israel spiking by </span></span><a href="https://www.turkishminute.com/2024/01/04/turkish-export-israel-rise-by-34-8-pct-from-november-december/"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">34.8 percent</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">
in December – from $319.5 million in November to $430.6 million in
December – surpassing even the pre-conflict level of $408.3 million.</span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Crucially,
Turkiye remains a key player in Israel's oil supply chain, with
approximately 4 percent coming from Azerbaijan via Turkiye. Despite
calls from Iran to </span></span><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/01/iran-supreme-leader-calls-for-oil-food-to-be-blocked-israel/"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">halt oil and food exports</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">
to Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians, Ankara persists in
maintaining its strategic interests with Tel Aviv through realpolitik
shrouded in diplomatic ambiguity. </span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Following his </span></span><a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-remarks-to-the-press-20/"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">West Asia tour</span></span></a><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">,
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken disclosed that there was a shared
goal among the various countries he visited, including Turkiye, for
Israel to live in peace, a united West Bank and Gaza under Palestinian
leadership, regional integration, and the establishment of an
independent Palestinian state. </span></span></p><blockquote><p style="margin-left:0cm;text-align:justify"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">“I
also found across the board that the countries we visited, the leaders
we spend time with, are prepared to make the necessary commitments, to
make the hard decisions to advance all of these objectives, to advance
this vision for the region.”</span></span></p></blockquote><p style="margin-left:0cm;text-align:justify"><span style="color:black"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>Factors affecting the Turkish position</strong></span></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Turkiye’s
stance on the current war in occupied Palestine is shaped by a complex
interplay of internal and external factors that have influenced its
foreign policy for years. Key elements include the economic crisis since
2018, a surge in nationalism within Turkiye, the impact of global power
dynamics (involving the US, China, and Russia) on the West Asian
region, strained relations between Erdogan and the west, and Ankara’s
pursuit of "strategic independence."</span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Economically, Turkiye faced a serious crisis last year, marked by a </span><a href="https://capex.com/eu/overview/turkish-lira-forecast-and-price-prediction"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">35 percent</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> devaluation of the Turkish lira and an inflation rate of 62 percent. Depleting </span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e1e897ab-b68e-48cb-a053-f17a322b949c"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">$26 billion</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> in foreign currency reserves to support the lira and address a substantial current account deficit exacerbated the situation. </span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">An
opinion poll conducted in early November, after the start of the war on
Gaza, showed that 70 percent of Turks believe that the economy is
Turkiye's biggest problem, followed by unemployment at 6.2 percent. The
same poll also showed that 57.5 percent of respondents believe that the
economic situation in Turkiye would worsen in 2024. </span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Interestingly,
events in Gaza were absent from most Turkish opinion polls in favor of
basic living issues. Ankara has a clear interest in this: maintaining
economic ties with Israel directly impacts Erdogan's position on the
war.</span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Domestically,
nationalist sentiment has gained momentum in the past few years,
evident in recent election results where nationalists constituted a </span><a href="https://www.trtworld.com/elections/turkiye/2023"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">quarter of the voter turnout</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">.
Erdogan has responded to the trend – caused largely by his unsuccessful
Syria foreign policy, which saw millions of Syrian refugees flood
Turkiye's borders – by amplifying the role of the Organization of
Turkish States (OTS) and emphasizing a vision for the </span><a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/turkish-century-elections-recep-tayyip-erdogan-mustafa-kemal-ataturk/"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Turkish century</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"> rooted in nationalism rather than Islamism.</span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Be
that as it may, the priority of Turkish nationalists is the state, not
the nation. Therefore, they prefer not to antagonize Israel because of
the prospect of possible cooperation with it, especially in the field of
energy. </span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Erdogan's restoration of relations with Israel aligns with his vision of Turkiye as a vital </span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-eastern-mediterranean-quartet-big-talk-less-action"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">energy transit hub</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">
from West Asia to Europe, with proposed routes including: the EastMed
pipeline linking Israel to Greece, then Europe; a 300 kilometer pipeline
connecting occupied Palestinian gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean
to a gas liquefaction facility in Cyprus; and an underwater pipeline
connecting Turkiye to natural gas fields in occupied Palestine.</span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr"><strong>Rhetoric versus Realism </strong></span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">As
the country approaches municipal elections in March, Erdogan aims to
secure the recovery of his party's political losses in Istanbul and
Ankara, making it imperative to insulate the impact of the Gaza conflict
from domestic concerns. A recent poll indicates minimal support for
Hamas among Turks, with a majority preferring a </span><a href="https://www.pism.pl/publications/t%C3%BCrkiye-seeks-mediator-role-in-israel-hamas-war"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">neutral position</span></a><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">.</span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">On
the international stage, the shift in US focus away from West Asia due
to great power competition in the Asia Pacific has prompted allies,
including Turkiye, to compromise some longstanding policies. Last year
saw increased region-wide rapprochement with Syria, an Iranian–Saudi
agreement, and Turkiye settling differences with the UAE, Saudi Arabia,
Israel, and Egypt.</span></p><p style="margin-left:0cm"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">Finally,
tensions between Erdogan and the west, coupled with its impact on the
Turkish economy, have led the Turkish president to modify some positions
to appease western powers. Despite Erdogan's pursuit of strategic
independence, which seeks autonomy in foreign policy, the need for
co-existence with, and concessions to the Atlanticists remains evident,
as seen in Turkish policy toward the war in Gaza. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">As
the first Muslim state to recognize Israel in 1949, just a year after
the founding of the occupation state, Turkiye has long positioned itself
as an important ally of the west in the region. </span></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><span lang="EN" dir="ltr">While
Erdogan's rhetoric may superficially mimic that of the region's Axis of
Resistance, in practice, he is unlikely to significantly alter
Turkiye’s geopolitical alignment on the Palestinian issue. His natural
position continues to lie within the western axis, particularly when
money is at stake. </span></span></p></span></div></div></div></div>
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