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<div class="gmail-inner-article-top"><h1 class="gmail-">How Yemen is blocking US hegemony in West Asia</h1><p class="gmail-">The
new US-led coalition in the Red Sea will struggle to overcome Yemen’s
naval blockade on Israel, as Ansarallah’s domestically-produced and
inexpensive drones and missiles have leveled the technological playing
field.</p><div class="gmail-another-name"><br><p><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/authors/william-van-wagenen" style="color:rgb(164,4,4)">William Van Wagenen</a></p></div><div class="gmail-another-name" style="margin-top:16px"><p><span>DEC 29, 2023 -<font size="1"> </font></span><font size="1"><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/how-yemen-is-blocking-us-hegemony-in-west-asia">https://new.thecradle.co/articles/how-yemen-is-blocking-us-hegemony-in-west-asia</a></font></p></div></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-img"><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles/0aabfcf8-a672-11ee-a5bd-00163e02c055.jpeg" alt="" width="440" height="208" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span>Photo Credit: The Cradle</span></div><div class="gmail-inner-article-content"><div class="gmail-row"><div class="gmail-col-md-8 gmail-col-sm-7"><div class="gmail-article-content"><span><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Given
the renewed focus on Yemen's de facto government led by Ansarallah and
its armed forces, it is time to move beyond the simplistic and
dismissive characterization of the Houthis as merely a ‘rebel’ group or a
non-state actor.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Since the
start of the war by the Saudi-led coalition against Ansarallah in 2015,
the Yemeni resistance movement has transformed into a formidable
military force that has not only humbled Saudi Arabia but is also now
challenging Israel’s genocidal actions in Gaza as well as the superior
firepower and resources of the US Navy in the world’s most important
waterway.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><strong>Economic fallout of Yemen</strong>’<strong>s naval operations</strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">In response to Israel unleashing unprecedented violence on Gaza, killing </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/22/gaza-israel-war-20000-dead/"><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">over 20,000 people</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">, </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">predominantly
women and children, Yemen’s Ansarallah-led armed forces announced on 14
November their intent to target any Israeli-linked ship passing through
the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. This crucial
waterway serves as the gateway to the Suez Canal, through which
approximately 10 percent of global trade and 8.8 million barrels of oil
travel each day.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">On 9
December, Ansarallah announced it would expand its operations further to
target any ship in the Red Sea on its way to Israel, regardless of its
nationality. “If Gaza does not receive the food and medicine it needs,
all ships in the Red Sea bound for Israeli ports, regardless of their
nationality, will become a target for our armed forces," an Ansarallah
Armed Forces spokesperson</span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemens-houthis-say-they-will-target-ships-red-sea-en-route-israel-2023-12-09/"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">said</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">in a statement.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">To
date, Ansarallah has successfully targeted nine ships using drones and
missiles, and managed to seize one Israeli-affiliated ship in the Red
Sea, according to their official statements. These operations have
prompted the largest international </span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/top-shipping-companies-suspend-red-sea-journeys-in-fear-of-yemen"><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">shipping companies</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">,
including CMA CGM and MSC, and oil giants BP and Evergreen, to re-route
their Europe bound ships around the horn of Africa, adding 13,000km and
significant fuel costs to the journey.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Delays,
transit times, and insurance fees for commercial shipping have
skyrocketed, threatening to spark inflation worldwide. This is
especially worrisome for Israel, which is already contending with the</span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/12441"><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> economic repercussions</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> of its longest and deadliest conflict with the Palestinian resistance in history. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Additionally, Ansarallah has launched multiple missile and drone attacks on Israel’s southern port city of</span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/14235"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">Eilat</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">, decreasing its commercial shipping </span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/eilat-port-chief-says-traffic-down-85-since-houthis-put-squeeze-on-strait/"><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">traffic</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">by 85 percent.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The
disruption in the Red Sea directly undermines a key element of the
White House’s 2022 National Security Strategy, which unequivocally</span><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">states</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">that
the US will not permit any nation “to jeopardize freedom of navigation
through the Middle East’s waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz and
the Bab al-Mandab.”</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><strong>Coalition of the unwilling</strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">On 18 December, in response to Sanaa’s operations, Secretary of State Lloyd Austin</span><a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3621110/statement-from-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-on-ensuring-freedom-of-n/"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> declared</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">
the establishment of a naval coalition named Operation Prosperity
Guardian, with some 20 countries called to counter Yemeni attacks and
ensure safe passage of ships through the Red Sea.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Austin
announced the new maritime coalition would include, among others,
Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands, the
Seychelles, and</span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-gulf-widens-as-gcc-states-differ-on-us-strategy-against-yemen"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">Bahrain</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">.</span></p><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles_media/5d28ff0c-a687-11ee-98bb-00163e02c055.png" width="440" height="314" style="margin-right: 25px;"><span class="gmail-text-tiny" style="color:rgb(153,153,153)">Map of the US-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) in West Asia and North Africa. </span><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">In response to the announcement, Ansarallah politburo Mohammed al-Bukhaiti</span><a href="https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-created-anti-yemen-coalition-to-be-filthiest-in-history"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">vowed</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">that Yemen’s armed forces would not back down:</span></p><blockquote><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Yemen
awaits the creation of the filthiest coalition in history to engage in
the holiest battle in history. How will the countries that rushed to
form an international coalition against Yemen to protect the
perpetrators of Israeli genocide be perceived?</span></p></blockquote><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The
embarrassment for Secretary Austin and White House advisor Jake
Sullivan was swift. Shortly after the coalition's announcement, key US
allies</span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-gulf-widens-as-gcc-states-differ-on-us-strategy-against-yemen"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">Saudi Arabia</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> and Egypt</span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">declined</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">participation. European allies Denmark, Holland, and Norway</span><a href="https://gcaptain.com/spain-italy-france-decline-us-command-of-red-sea-operation-prosperity-guardian/"><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> provided minimal support</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">, sending only a handful of naval officers.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">France
agreed to participate but refused to deploy additional ships to the
region or place its existing vessel there under US command. Italy and
Spain refuted claims of their participation, and eight countries
remained anonymous, casting doubt on their existence.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Ansarallah
has therefore destroyed another pillar of the White House National
Security Strategy, which seeks “to promote regional integration by
building political, economic, and security connections between and among
US partners, including through integrated air and maritime defense
structures.”</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><strong>Revolutions in naval warfare</strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The
Pentagon plans to defend commercial ships using missile defense systems
on US and allied naval carriers deployed to the region.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">But
the world’s superpower, now largely on its own, does not have the
military capacity to counter attacks from war-torn Yemen, the poorest
country in West Asia.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">This is
because the US relies on expensive and difficult to manufacture
interceptor missiles to counter the inexpensive and mass-produced drones
and missiles that Ansarallah possesses.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Austin
made his announcement shortly after the USS Carney destroyer
intercepted 14 one-way attack drones on just one day, the 16th of
December.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The operation appeared to be a success, but <i>Politico</i> swiftly</span><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">reported</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">that according to three US Defense Department officials, the cost of countering such attacks “is a growing concern.”</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The SM-2 missiles used by the USS Carney cost roughly $2.1 million each, while Ansarallah's one-way attack drones</span><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">cost</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">a mere $2,000 each.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">This means that to shoot down the $28,000 worth of drones on 16 December, the US spent at least $28 million in just one day.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Ansarallah
has now launched more than 100 drone and missile attacks, targeting ten
commercial ships from 35 countries, meaning the cost of US interceptor
missiles alone has exceeded $200 million.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">But
cost is not the only limitation. If Ansarallah persists with this
strategy, US forces will quickly deplete their interceptor missile
stocks, which are needed not only in West Asia but in East Asia as well.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">As Fortis Analysis</span><a href="https://twitter.com/maphumanintent/status/1736762433279066316?t=J0aC7mrR4DhE0Ukma8AA7A&s=08"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">observed</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">,
the US has eight guided missile cruisers and destroyers operating in
the Mediterranean and Red Seas, with a total of 800 SM-2 and SM-6
interceptor missiles for ship defense between them.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">He
further notes that production of these missiles is slow, meaning any
ongoing campaign to counter Ansarallah will quickly deplete US
interceptor missile stocks to dangerously low levels. Meanwhile, the US
weapons manufacturer Raytheon can produce less than 50 SM-2 and fewer
than 200 SM-6 missiles annually. </span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">If
these stocks are diminished, this leaves the US Navy vulnerable not
only in the Red Sea and Mediterranean, where Russia is also active, but
also in the Pacific Ocean, where China poses a significant threat with
its hypersonic and ballistic missiles.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Fortis
Analysis concludes by observing that the longer Ansarallah continues
“throwing potshots” at commercial, US Navy, and allied maritime assets,
“the worse the calculus gets. Supply chains win wars – and we are losing
this critical domain.”</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">And
Ansarallah has not yet tried a drone swarm attack, which would force US
ships to counter dozens of incoming threats at one time.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">“A
swarm could tax the capabilities of a single warship but more
importantly, it could mean weapons get past them to hit commercial
ships,” Salvatore Mercogliano, a naval expert and professor at Campbell
University in North Carolina </span><a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/20/middleeast/us-destroyers-houthi-drones-red-sea-intl-hnk-ml/index.html"><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">observed</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Moreover, US warships would also face the question of how to replenish their missile inventory.</span></p><img src="http://thecradle-main.oss-eu-central-1.aliyuncs.com/public/articles_media/c19d40ac-a686-11ee-b4b7-00163e02c055.png" width="240" height="440" style="margin-right: 0px;"><span style="color:rgb(153,153,153)">USS John Finn and USS Porter missiles capacity</span><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">“The only site to reload weapons is at Djibouti (a US base on the Horn of Africa) and that is close to the action,” he said.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Other
experts suggest that the ships would either sail to the Mediterranean
Sea to reload from US bases in Italy and Greece, or to the Gulf island
of Bahrain which holds the Naval Support Activity and is home to US
Naval Forces Central Command and United States Fifth Fleet.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><strong>The </strong>‘<strong>great equalizer</strong>’</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">As a result, Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies,</span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/17/world/middleeast/yemen-houthis-gulf.html"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">described</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">the situation in Yemen as a case where technology acts as a “great equalizer.”</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">“Your
F-15 that costs millions of dollars means nothing because I have my
drone that cost a few thousand dollars that will do just as much
damage,” he told the <i>New York Times</i>.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">While
the US military is successful at producing expensive, technologically
complex weapons systems that provide excellent profits for the arms
industry, such as the F-15 warplanes, it is not capable of producing
enough of the weapons needed to actually fight and win real wars on the
other side of the world, where supply chains become even more critical.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">In
Yemen, the US is heavily challenged by the same problem it faced while
fighting a proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, which after almost two
years, US officials</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRvY8bEppeA&ab_channel=HindustanTimes"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">acknowledge</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">is all but lost.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Moscow
has the industrial base and the supply chains in place to produce
hundreds of thousands of the low-cost, rudimentary 152mm artillery
shells –</span><a href="https://global.espreso.tv/russia-can-produce-up-to-2-million-shells-annually-ukraine-partners-should-boost-production-ukrainian-mp"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">two million annually</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">
– needed for success in a multi-year war of attrition fought largely in
trenches. The US, quite simply, does not. Washington's war industrial
complex is currently, at best, manufacturing 288,000 shells annually and</span><a href="https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2023/03/28/us-army-eyes-six-fold-production-boost-of-155mm-shells-used-in-ukraine/"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">seeks to manufacture</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> one million shells by the year 2028, still only half of the Russian manufacturing ability.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Additionally, one Russian 152mm artillery round costs $600 dollars according to western experts, whereas it</span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">costs</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">a western country $5,000 to $6,000 to produce a comparable 155mm artillery shell.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><strong>Enter Iran</strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The
security situation will only get worse for the US should Iran enter the
conflict in support of Ansarallah, the signs of which are emerging
already.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">On 23 December, the US openly</span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/24/us-says-it-shot-down-four-drones-in-southern-red-sea-launched-from-houthi-controlled-areas-in-yemen"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">accused</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Iran
of targeting commercial vessels for the first time since the start of
Israel’s war on Gaza, claiming a Japanese-owned chemical tanker off the
coast of India was targeted by a drone “fired from Iran.”</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The
same day, Tehran denied the allegations but threatened the forced
closure of other crucial maritime shipping lanes unless Israel halts its
war crimes in Gaza.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">“With the
continuation of these crimes, America and its allies should expect the
emergence of new resistance forces and the closure of other waterways,”
Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an official in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC), </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/24/us-says-it-shot-down-four-drones-in-southern-red-sea-launched-from-houthi-controlled-areas-in-yemen"><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">warned</span></a><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">As a reminder, Iran</span><a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">possesses</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">the
largest and most diverse missile arsenal in West Asia, with thousands
of ballistic and cruise missiles, some capable of striking Israel.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">On 24 December, Iran</span><a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-navy-adds-fully-smart-cruise-missiles-with-1000-km-range-to-its-armory/"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">announced</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">its
navy had added “fully smart” cruise missiles, including one with a
1,000km range that can change targets during travel, and another with a
range of 100km which can be installed on warships.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">With
US and Israeli forces already under pressure from the Axis of
Resistance forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and now Yemen, the
possible entry of Iran in the conflict is even more ominous for
Washington, especially in an election year.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"><strong>Genocide as a foreign policy</strong></span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">So,
how far are President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and
Jake Sullivan willing to go to facilitate Israel’s ongoing carnage in
the Gaza Strip?</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The trio's commitment to military aid packages for</span><a href="https://new.thecradle.co/articles/us-urges-israel-to-protect-civilians-sends-more-bombs"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">Israel</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">and Ukraine, despite looming debt concerns, raises questions about their priorities.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">The
potential risk to the security of the US Navy in the Pacific Ocean may
force a re-evaluation of the situation soon. This leaves the US with the
option of direct military intervention in Yemen, a course of action
with its own ethical and geopolitical consequences.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Recognizing
the difficulty of countering Ansarallah from a defensive posture, at
least some in the US national security establishment are demanding US
forces go on the offensive and strike Yemen directly.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">On 28 December, former vice admirals Mark I. Fox and John W. Miller </span><a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2023/12/to-deter-houthi-strikes-in-red-sea-us-must-turn-from-defense-to-offense/"><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">argued</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">that
“deterring and degrading” Iran and Ansarallah’s ability to launch these
attacks requires striking the forces in Yemen responsible for
conducting them, “something no one has yet been willing to do.”</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">Yemen
itself has just emerged from an eight-year, US-backed Saudi and UAE war
that led to the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Both Persian
Gulf nations used US bombs to kill tens of thousands of Yemenis, while
imposing a blockade and siege that led to hundreds of thousands of
additional deaths from hunger and disease.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">According to Jeffrey Bachman of the American University, Saudi Arabia and the UAE</span><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/Hm6yabBswxhnzfhR8RSI/full"><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)">carried</span></a><span style="color:rgb(153,0,0)"> </span><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">out
a “campaign of genocide by a synchronized attack on all aspects of life
in Yemen,” which was “only possible with the complicity of the United
States and United Kingdom.” And yet Ansarallah emerged stronger
militarily from that conflict.</span></p><p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0)">If US support for two genocides in the Arab world are not enough, maybe the third will be the charm.</span></p></span></div></div></div></div>
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