<div dir="ltr">
<div class="gmail-top-anchor"></div>
<div id="gmail-toolbar" class="gmail-toolbar-container">
</div><div class="gmail-container" dir="ltr" lang="en-GB">
<div class="gmail-header gmail-reader-header gmail-reader-show-element">
<a class="gmail-domain gmail-reader-domain" href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230206-failed-experiment-three-reasons-why-israel-fears-a-major-war-on-gaza/">middleeastmonitor.com</a>
<div class="gmail-domain-border"></div>
<h1 class="gmail-reader-title">Failed experiment: Three reasons why Israel fears a major war on Gaza</h1>
<div class="gmail-credits gmail-reader-credits">Dr Ramzy Barou - February 6, 2023</div></div>
<hr>
<div class="gmail-content">
<div class="gmail-moz-reader-content gmail-reader-show-element"><div id="gmail-readability-page-1" class="gmail-page"><div id="gmail-post-content">
<img src="cid:ii_ldtbev340" alt="image.png" width="452" height="301"><br><p>Though Israel's past wars on Gaza have often been justified by Tel
Aviv as a response to Palestinian rockets or, generally, as acts of
self-defence, the truth is different. Historically, Israel's
relationship with Gaza has been defined by Tel Aviv's need to create
distractions from its own fractious politics, to flex its muscles
against its regional enemies and to test its new weapons technology.</p>
<p>Though the Occupied West Bank – in fact, other Arab countries, too –
has been used as a testing ground for Israel's war machine, no other
place has allowed Israel to sustain its weapon experimentation for as
long as Gaza,<a href="https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israel-ranked-as-worlds-10th-biggest-arms-exporter-1001407631#:~:text=Israel%20exported%202.4%25%20of%20the,Institute%20(SIPRI)%20in%20Sweden." target="_blank"> making</a> Israel, as of 2022, the world's tenth largest weapons exporter.</p>
<p>There is a reason why Gaza is ideal for such grand, albeit tragic experiments.</p>
<p>Gaza is a perfect place for gathering information once new weapons
have been deployed and used on the battlefield. The Strip is home to two
million Palestinians who live squalid<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/01/un-predicted-gaza-would-be-uninhabitable-by-heres-what-that-actually-means/" target="_blank"> lives</a>
with virtually no clean water and little food, all of them confined
within 365 km² (approx. 181 mi²). In fact, due to Israel's so-called
safety belts, much of Gaza's arable lands which border Israel are off
limits. Farmers are often<a href="https://english.wafa.ps/Pages/Details/132792" target="_blank"> shot</a> by Israeli snipers, almost at the same frequency as Gaza's fishermen are also<a href="https://english.wafa.ps/Pages/Details/132709#:~:text=GAZA%2C%20Sunday%2C%20January%208%2C,shore%2C%20according%20to%20local%20sources." target="_blank"> targeted</a>, should they dare venture beyond the three nautical miles allocated to them by the Israeli navy.</p>
<p>"The Lab", an Israeli award-winning documentary<a href="https://www.gumfilms.com/projects/lab" target="_blank"> released</a>
in 2013, discussed in painful detail how Israel has turned millions of
Palestinians into actual human laboratories for testing new weapons.
Gaza, even before, but especially since then, has been the main testing
ground for these weapons.</p>
<p>Gaza has been 'the lab' for Israeli political experimentations as well.</p>
<p><strong><a title="The world has forgotten the Palestinian prisoners" href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230206-the-world-has-forgotten-the-palestinian-prisoners/">OPINION: The world has forgotten the Palestinian prisoners</a></strong></p>
<p>When, from December 2008 to January 2009, then-Israel's Acting Prime Minister Tzipi Livni<a href="https://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/12session/A-HRC-12-48.pdf" target="_blank"> decided</a>
to, in her own words, "go wild" by unleashing one of the deadliest wars
on Gaza, the Israeli politician was hoping that her military adventure
would help solidify support for her party at the Knesset.</p>
<p>Livni, at the time, was the head of Kadima, which was established in
2005 by former leader of the Likud, Ariel Sharon. As Sharon's successor,
Livni wanted to prove her own worth as a strong politician capable of
teaching Palestinians a lesson.</p>
<p>Though her experiment then won her some support in the February 2009
elections, it backfired badly following the November 2012 war, where
Kadima was nearly<a href="https://www.haaretz.com/2013-01-24/ty-article/.premium/final-results-right-has-slim-majority/0000017f-f428-dc28-a17f-fc3f3c380000" target="_blank"> destroyed</a> in the January 2013 elections. Eventually, Kadima vanished altogether from Israel's political map.</p>
<p>This was not the first, nor the last time that Israeli politicians
have attempted to use Gaza as a way to distract from their own political
woes, or to demonstrate, through killing Palestinians, their
qualifications as protectors of Israel.</p>
<p>Yet, no one has perfected the use of violence to score political
points as much as Israel's current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Returning as the head of Israel's most extremist government in history,
Netanyahu is keen to stay in power, especially since his rightwing
coalition has more comfortable support margins in the Knesset than any
of Israel's five governments in the last three years.</p>
<p>With a rightwing, pro-war constituency that is far more interested in
illegal settlement expansion and 'security' than economic growth or
socio-economic equality, Netanyahu should, at least technically, be in a
stronger position to launch another war on Gaza. But why is he
hesitating?</p>
<p>On 1 February, a Palestinian group<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/israel-carries-out-air-strikes-on-gaza-strip" target="_blank"> fired</a> a rocket toward southern Israel, prompting an Israeli response that was intentionally limited.</p>
<p>According to Palestinian groups in the besieged Strip, the rocket was
fired as part of the ongoing armed rebellion by West Bank Palestinians.
It was meant to illustrate the political unity between Gaza, Jerusalem
and the West Bank.</p>
<p>The West Bank is living its darkest days. 35 Palestinians were<a href="https://english.wafa.ps/Pages/Details/133125" target="_blank"> killed</a> by the Israeli army in January alone, ten of whom<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/26/israeli-raid-kills-three-palestinians-in-jenin-fighting" target="_blank"> perished</a> in Jenin in a single Israeli raid. A Palestinian, acting alone, responded by<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/27/gunman-wounds-at-least-5-people-in-east-jerusalem-attack" target="_blank"> killing</a> seven Jewish settlers in Occupied East Jerusalem, the perfect spark of what is usually a massive Israeli response.</p>
<p>But that response has been confined, thus far, to the<a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/29/israel-prepares-to-demolish-family-home-of-palestinian-gunman" target="_blank"> demolition</a> of homes,<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230128-new-gun-attack-in-east-jerusalem-after-synagogue-mass-shooting" target="_blank"> arrest</a> and torture of the attacker's family members, military<a href="https://english.wafa.ps/Pages/Details/133158" target="_blank"> sieges</a> on various Palestinian towns and hundreds of individual assaults by Jewish settlers on Palestinians.</p>
<p>An all-out Israeli war, especially in Gaza, has not yet actualised. But why?</p>
<div id="gmail-attachment_514123" class="gmail-wp-caption"><p><img src="https://i0.wp.com/www.middleeastmonitor.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/IMG_3893-scaled.jpeg?resize=933%2C579&quality=85&strip=all&zoom=1&ssl=1" alt="When the International community and the Palestinian politics are abandoning Gaza, but it will rise up! - Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]" class="gmail-moz-reader-block-img" style="margin-right: 0px;" width="452" height="281"></p><p class="gmail-wp-caption-text"><font size="1">When
the International community and the Palestinian politics are abandoning
Gaza, but it will rise up! – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]</font></p></div><p>First,
the political risks of attacking Gaza through a long war, for now,
outweigh the benefits. Though Netanyahu's coalition is relatively
secure, the expectations of the Prime Minister's extremist allies are
very high. A war with an indecisive outcome could be considered a
victory for Palestinians, a notion that could alone break down the
coalition. Though Netanyahu could launch war as a last resort, he has no
need for such a risky option at the moment.</p>
<p>Second, the Palestinian Resistance is stronger than ever. On 26 January, Hamas<a href="https://www.palestinechronicle.com/fighting-back-gaza-unleashes-new-weapon-in-fight-against-israel-video/" target="_blank"> declared</a>
that it has used surface-to-air missiles to repel an Israeli air raid
on Gaza. Though the Gaza group's military arsenal is largely
rudimentary, much of it homemade, it is far more advanced and
sophisticated compared to weapons used during Israel's so-called
"Operation Cast Lead" in 2008.</p>
<p><strong>READ: <a title="13 Palestinians injured in Israeli military raid in Jericho" href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230205-13-palestinians-injured-in-israeli-military-raid-in-jericho/">13 Palestinians injured in Israeli military raid in Jericho</a></strong></p>
<p>Finally, Israel's munitions reserve must be at its lowest point in a
long time. Now that the US, Israel's largest weapons supplier, has
tapped into its strategic weapons reserve – due to the Russia-Ukraine
war – Washington will not be able to replenish the Israeli arsenal with
constant supplies of munitions the same way the Obama Administration did
during the 2014 war. Even more alarming for the Israeli military, the
New York Times<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html" target="_blank"> revealed</a>
in January that "the Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known
stockpile of American ammunition in Israel to help meet Ukraine's dire
need for artillery shells …"</p>
<p>Though Israeli wars on Gaza are much riskier nowadays compared to the
past, a cornered and embattled Netanyahu can still resort to such a
scenario if he feels that his leadership is in peril. Indeed, the
Israeli leader did so in May 2021. Even then, he still could not save
himself or his government from a humiliating defeat.</p>
<p>The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not
necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.</p>
</div></div></div>
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div></div>
</div>
</div>