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<a class="gmail-domain gmail-reader-domain" href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/05/12/the-limits-of-israeli-intelligence-does-israel-have-a-yahya-sinwar-problem/">counterpunch.org</a>
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<h1 class="gmail-reader-title">The Limits of Israeli Intelligence: Does Israel Have a Yahya Sinwar Problem?</h1>
<span class="gmail-post_author_intro">by</span> <span class="gmail-post_author"><a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/author/ramzy-baroud/" rel="nofollow">Ramzy Baroud</a></span>- May 12, 2022<br></div>
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<p>Like typical analyses offered by western intelligence when trying to
assess risks or understand major political phenomena in the Middle East,
Israeli intelligence is equally short-sighted. It insists on analyzing
the attitudes and body language of individuals instead of focusing on
the behavior of collectives. This is the case today as Israel is
desperately trying to understand the changing political dynamics in
Palestine.</p>
<p>Following the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/07/27/gaza-apparent-war-crimes-during-may-fighting">Israeli war</a> on Gaza in May 2021, the Israeli military <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/.premium.HIGHLIGHT.MAGAZINE-there-s-something-new-about-hamas-leader-in-gaza-since-the-war-israel-is-concerned-1.10015541">prepared</a>
a ‘personality profile’ of Gaza-based Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar.
Though Hamas, and Sinwar, were important political actors in the events
that took place throughout Palestine at the time, the real stars of the
show were the Palestinian people. The popular Palestinian rebellion did
not only challenge the Israeli occupation, but the stagnant Palestinian
political discourse, saturated with factional references and power
struggles.</p>
<p>Typically, the Israeli government, military and their various
intelligence branches refuse to accept that the Palestinian people are
capable of behaving and responding to Israeli violence on their own
accord.</p>
<p>For example, following the popular Palestinian uprising of 1987 – the
First Intifada – Israel resolved that the entire event was orchestrated
by top Fatah and PLO leader, Khalil al-Wazir, Abu Jihad. In April 1988,
a group of Israeli commandos <a href="https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=Khalil+Al+Wazir&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8">assassinated</a> him in his Tunis residence. However, the Intifada did not stop, but continued more furiously than before.</p>
<p>Now, Israel says it has a Yahya Sinwar problem.</p>
<p>The Hamas leader <a href="https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/3622401/hamas-leader-gaza-be-ready-great-battle">made</a>
his latest public appearance in Gaza City on April 30. Addressing a
group of leaders and representatives of various Palestinian political
groups, Sinwar declared that “Our people must prepare for a great battle
if the occupation does not cease its aggression against the Al-Aqsa
Mosque”.</p>
<p>Though Sinwar did not declare war on Israel, he emphasized that
Israeli violations in Al-Aqsa would lead to “regional, religious war”.</p>
<p>Much can be surmised from these words and the rest of Sinwar’s
speech. Clearly, Palestinians are trying to change the rules of
engagement with Israel altogether. As Israel’s religious and far-right
groups are now the forces that are <a href="https://www.hoover.org/research/religion-and-politics-israel">shaping</a>
mainstream Israeli politics, many Palestinians, too, find their
religious symbols, whether Muslim or Christian, strong points of unity.</p>
<p>In some sense, the choice by all Palestinian groups, including Hamas,
is strategic. Failure to achieve unity around other issues – the ‘peace
process’, the two-state solution, political representation, the type of
resistance against Israel and other contentious points – made the
search for common ground more difficult by the day. However, East
Jerusalem, Al-Quds and, particularly, Al-Aqsa Mosque, are always a
guaranteed platform for national and spiritual unity among all
Palestinians.</p>
<p>Prior to May, Palestinians were divided, not only politically, but
also in terms of language and priorities. Hamas wanted to end the siege,
thus its own isolation in Gaza. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud
Abbas wanted a semblance of any political process that would keep him
relevant in the eyes of the world. East Jerusalimites fought alone
against mounting Israeli <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/sheikh-jarrah-evictions-ethnic-cleansing-meshaal/2234482">pressures</a>
to ethnically cleanse them, one house at a time, from their historic
city. Palestinians who are citizens of Israel were almost entirely
removed from the national conversation altogether, despite the fact that
their struggle against racism and marginalization is a defining one,
and matters to all Palestinians.</p>
<p>May changed all of this. When Gaza <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57053074">responded</a>
to relieve the pressure on Jerusalem – though at a heavy price of war
and massive destruction – Palestinian communities throughout historic
Palestine <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/16/palestinian-protests-in-israel-showcase-unprecedented-unity">rose</a>
in tandem. Using social media and other platforms, they managed to
communicate amongst themselves and coordinate their actions. Their
unified message resonated throughout the world.</p>
<p>Hamas, like other Palestinian groups, was part of this collective
action. But as Abu Jihad did not instigate the First Intifada, Sinwar
did not instigate the May rebellion. Israel, however, refuses to accept
this because, by doing so, it would be forced to swallow a bitter pill –
that Palestinian resistance is not linked to individuals or groups, but
is inherent in the behavior of the Palesitnian people themselves. This
obvious realization is difficult for Tel Aviv because it simply means
that no amount of fire power, military preparedness or intelligence data
will ever succeed in maintaining the Israeli occupation of Palestine
forever.</p>
<p>Oblivious to the changing reality, last July, Israel declared its
assessment of the situation, practically stating that the problem is not
human rights violations, apartheid, military occupation, Jewish
settlers’ provocations, racism and home demolition, but Yahya Sinwar
himself.</p>
<p>In an <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/.premium.HIGHLIGHT.MAGAZINE-there-s-something-new-about-hamas-leader-in-gaza-since-the-war-israel-is-concerned-1.10015541">article</a>
reporting on the Israeli military assessment, the Israeli newspaper
Haaretz conveyed the obsession of Israel with Sinwar’s messages. “Sinwar
is turning himself into a spiritual figure,” the military analysts
claimed, alleging that the Hamas leader, who “has become unpredictable”,
is taking on the “characteristics of someone who believes that he was
chosen to lead the Arabs in the world,” and is “chosen by God to fight
for Jerusalem on behalf of the Muslims.”</p>
<p>If Israeli analysts paid closer attention, however, they would have
concluded that Sinwar’s growing popularity, confidence and evolving
language are all intrinsically linked to the events on the ground.
Namely, Sinwar’s political discourse, as of that of other Palestinian
leaders – including heads of the Fatah military groups and even some PA
officials – are a reflection of popular events on the ground, not vice
versa.</p>
<p>While Israelis continue to chase mirages and desperately try to
decode messages, Palestinians feel, for the first time in many years,
that they are able to influence political outcomes. A case in point was
Israel’s decision to postpone the Flag March, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/jerusalem-flag-march-foiled-as-police-block-nationalists-from-damascus-gate/">scheduled</a> to be held by Israeli extremists in Jerusalem on April 20.</p>
<p>Palestinian messages are not only confined to Israel, however. The fact that the Gaza resistance has <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/.premium.HIGHLIGHT.MAGAZINE-there-s-something-new-about-hamas-leader-in-gaza-since-the-war-israel-is-concerned-1.10015541">threatened</a>
to fire 1,111 rockets on Israel, should the latter carry on with its
provocations in Al-Aqsa, was intended for a Palestinian audience. The
operation, according to Gaza groups will be called Abu Ammar – the <em>nom de guerre</em> of late Palestinian Fatah leader, Yasser Arafat. Abu Ammar died on November, 11, 2004.</p>
<p>After years of political discord and disunity, there is evidence that
Palestinians are finally uniting, the kind of unity that does not
require high-level meetings in luxury hotels followed by press
conferences and official statements. It is the unity of the Palestinian
people themselves, around a set of values, new language and a collective
frame of reference. Deep down, this is what truly terrifies Israel
most, not the speeches of Sinwar or any other.</p>
</div><p>
<em>Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of five books. His latest is “</em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/These-Chains-Will-Broken-Palestinian/dp/1949762092"><em>These Chains Will Be Broken</em></a><em>:
Palestinian Stories of Struggle and Defiance in Israeli Prisons”
(Clarity Press, Atlanta). Dr. Baroud is a Non-resident Senior Research
Fellow at the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA), Istanbul Zaim
University (IZU). His website is </em><a href="http://www.ramzybaroud.net/"><em>www.ramzybaroud.net</em></a>
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