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New Roman',serif;" valign="top"><a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/tin-america-deepen-their-ties-/nmtz5s/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"><b>Washington
Watches as China and Latin America Deepen
Their Ties</b></a></td>
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<b>By Marco Fernandes</b>
<div><br>
Less than a week after the start of Russia’s
military intervention, Juan Sebastian
Gonzalez, senior director of Western
Hemisphere affairs at the U.S. National
Security Council, in an interview with Voice
of America (a State Department asset), <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/aine-venezuela-nicaragua-cuba-/nmtz5w/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">stated</a> that “the
sanctions against Russia are so robust that
they will have an impact on those governments
that have economic affiliations with Russia,
and that is by design. So, Venezuela will
start feeling the pressure; Nicaragua will
start feeling the pressure; as will Cuba.” A
recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine,
which by way of the Council on Foreign
Relations serves unofficially as a kind of
discussion forum of the U.S. State Department,
titled “The Eurasian Nightmare,” <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-2022-02-25-eurasian-nightmare/nmtz5z/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">defended</a> the
thesis that Washington has no choice but to
fight Russia and China at the same time.
However, Gonzalez hints that the Biden
administration’s strategy not only
contemplates attacking the main front in the
east (Moscow and Beijing), but also opens a
front in the south—secondary, but
important—against three Latin American
countries that have challenged Washington the
most in recent years (Venezuela, Nicaragua,
and Cuba). The southern front, however, may be
broader than what <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/r-pa-ei-biog-bureau-254661-htm/nmtz63/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">the Colombia-born</a>
Juan Gonzalez makes clear.<br>
<br>
On March 24, the commander of the U.S. Armed
Forces Southern Command, General Laura
Richardson, <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/ese-influence-in-latin-america/nmtz66/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">testified</a> before
the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee. She
said that although Russia is the “more
immediate threat” in Latin America and the
Caribbean, China would pose a diplomatic,
technological, informational, and military
challenge to the United States. Richardson had
given <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/Posture-Statement-to-Congress-/nmtz69/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">similar testimony</a>
in the House of Representatives about two
weeks earlier, where she also stated that
without “U.S. leadership,” Chinese influence
in the region could “soon resemble the
self-serving predatory influence it now holds
in Africa.” She refers to the advance of the
Belt and Road Initiative across the African
continent since 2013, responsible for
unprecedented tens of billions of dollars in
Chinese <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/revolution-chinese-investment-/nmtz6d/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">investment</a> in
basic infrastructure (energy,
telecommunications, ports, railroads,
highways, etc.) in exchange for the natural
resources China needs to feed its industry,
which is responsible for <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/f-global-manufacturing-output-/nmtz6h/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">28.7 percent</a> of
all manufacturing produced in the world and
consumed globally.<br>
<br>
General Richardson’s statements are based on
two principles. First, that the United States
views Latin America and the Caribbean as its
“backyard,” expressed in the Monroe Doctrine
since 1823 and put into practice in countless
military invasions, coups, and, more recently,
hybrid wars against peoples and governments
not aligned with Washington. Biden recently <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/ews-status-1484021526802358272/nmtz6l/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">said</a> that “Latin
America is not our backyard,” but rather that
it is “America’s front yard.” Latin Americans
do not want to be anyone’s yard, whether front
or back. Second, that the United States
believes that the foreign policy of the
region’s governments should be defined by
Washington.<br>
<br>
<b>China in Latin America</b><br>
<br>
In 2000, the U.S. Congress set up the <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/rt-2021-annual-report-congress/nmtz6p/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">U.S.-China Economic
and Security Review Commission</a>, which
offers Congress its assessment of China on
U.S. national security. In November 2021, the
commission’s report had an important chapter
on the relations between China and the
governments of <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-America-and-the-Caribbean-pdf/nmtz6s/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">Latin America and the
Caribbean</a>. The report worried about
China’s support for what it termed “populist”
governments from Argentina to Venezuela. It
remarked on the increase in the region’s trade
with China: from $18.9 billion (2002) to
$295.6 billion (2020), in addition to its
growing importance as a source of loans,
financing
($137 billion from 2005 to 2020) and direct
investments ($58 billion between 2016 and
2020). Due to this investment, China was able
to assist the region in lessening the impact
of the 2008 financial crisis; this investment
created jobs (1.8 million between 1995 and
2016) and decreased poverty (falling from 12
percent in 2002 to 4 percent in 2018). Chinese
vaccines rushed in during the pandemic, and
Latin American commodity exports to China
dampened the burden of the COVID recession.<br>
<br>
The U.S.-China Commission <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-America-and-the-Caribbean-pdf/nmtz6s/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">worried</a> about the
increased connections between China and the
region in telecommunications and
transportation networks. <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-america-amid-global-headwinds/nmtz6w/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">Huawei’s leadership</a>
in 5G in the region as well as Sino-South
American partnerships in the <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/AG-Outer-Space-Cooperation-pdf/nmtz6z/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">development of
satellites</a> (<a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-America-and-the-Caribbean-pdf/nmtz6s/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">21 launched</a> in
joint ventures, most of which were with
Argentina) are offered
as examples. The commission also expressed
alarm that China’s control or influence over
ports in the region, particularly in the
Caribbean, since these could—in the future—be
used for military purposes (although there is
no indication of any such military use by
China or by the Latin American and Caribbean
states).<br>
<br>
<b>Washington’s Cold War</b><br>
<br>
Washington’s hard-right elements reacted to
this report with speed. In February 2022, <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/fluence-latin-america-82730508/nmtz73/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">Senators Marco Rubio
and Bob Menendez</a>, both Cuban-Americans,
introduced the Western Hemisphere Security
Strategy Act of 2022 in Congress. <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/-senate-bill-3589-text-r-2-s-1/nmtz76/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">This bill</a>,
drawing from the commission’s recommendations,
proposes that the United States government
directly challenge China’s role in the region.
It characterizes the existence of China and
Russia in the region as a “harmful and malign
influence.” The bill is vague and short on
details.<br>
<br>
<a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/people-evan-ellis/nmtz79/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">Dr. Evan Ellis</a>, a
professor at the U.S. Army War College whose
testimony was part of the commission’s report,
wrote a report in January 2022 for the Center
for Strategic and International Studies. The
report—<a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/1E0tejChAtolr6Vg9YyVkVTJqpeyao/nmtz7d/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">“Preparing for
Deterioration of the Latin America and
Caribbean Strategic Environment”</a>—points
to the revival “of a particular model of
leftist authoritarian populism” in Latin
America and the Caribbean. The new
governments, he writes, have developed links
with China to help them over the <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/tin-america-and-the-caribbean-/nmtz7h/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">COVID recession</a>.
The United States, Ellis argues, cannot
mobilize sufficient resources for investment
in the region because the U.S. Congress is
divided and because the private sector is
unwilling to take on this mission. He remains
skeptical of U.S. policy in the region,
particularly as Chinese state-owned companies
have been effectively investing in sectors
such as construction, mining, energy, and
finance.<br>
<br>
Ellis recommends four immediate actions, many
of them part of what is known as “hybrid war.”
First, he says that Washington should promote
a media narrative that denounces the leftist
governments and their relations with China.
Second, the United States should support
protest movements against these governments.
Third, the United States must deepen its
alliances with regional elites. Fourth, the
United States must apply sanctions to these
left-leaning governments.<br>
<br>
Two elections in the coming months could make
things more difficult for the United States.
In Colombia (May), the main ally of the United
States in the region, leftist candidate
Gustavo Petro could push the right wing out of
power. In Brazil (October), Lula leads the
polls against President Jair Bolsonaro.<br>
<br>
Ellis <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/1E0tejChAtolr6Vg9YyVkVTJqpeyao/nmtz7d/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">suspects</a> that the
arrest and imprisonment of Lula had “deepened
the radicalism of his leftist populist
orientation.” In May 2021, Lula told the <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/watch-v-tAnw1rv6nsI/nmtz7l/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">Chinese website
Guancha</a>: “It’s not possible that every
time a Latin American country starts to grow,
there is a coup. And in this coup, there is
always someone from the U.S., there is always
the U.S. ambassador. It is not possible.”<br>
<br>
Lula is not a radical, but if he is re-elected
president of Brazil, he will bring a realistic
attitude toward his country’s development. He
has stressed the importance of rebuilding the
Latin American and Caribbean regional bloc
(Community of Latin American and Caribbean
States, or CELAC) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia,
India, China, and South Africa), both of which
have been weakened in recent years. Chinese
investment and trade are already a key part of
Brazil’s plans for its future, but Lula also
knows that this partnership must evolve, and
Brazil needs to be more than an exporter of
commodities to China.<br>
<br>
Will the United States be able to roll back
the influence of China and Russia on the
region? Even Ellis does not feel confident
about such an outcome. Along with Senators
Rubio and Menendez, Ellis would prefer to
destabilize the region than allow it to become
a protagonist in a possible new world order.<br>
<br>
<em><b>Marco Fernandes</b> is a researcher at
<a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/2022-04-09/nmtz7p/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">Tricontinental:
Institute for Social Research</a>. He is a
member of the <a
href="https://go.ind.media/e/546932/2022-04-09/nmtz7s/1031491100?h=ak8UJ5qYVS5t8qLlCiHC1sQBxeukHQKTdzcVUYtzFeE"
moz-do-not-send="true">No Cold War</a>
collective. He lives in Shanghai.</em></div>
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