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<font size="1"><a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/07/16/laos-has-tackled-covid-19-but-it-is-drowning-in-debt-to-international-finance/">https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/07/16/laos-has-tackled-covid-19-but-it-is-drowning-in-debt-to-international-finance/</a>
</font><h1 class="gmail-reader-title">Laos Has Tackled COVID-19, But It Is Drowning in Debt to International Finance <br></h1>
<span class="gmail-post_author_intro">by</span> <span class="gmail-post_author"><a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/author/drespu/" rel="nofollow">Vijay Prashad</a></span> - July 16, 2020<br></div>
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<p>On June 11, Laos (Lao People’s Democratic Republic)—a country of 7
million in Southeast Asia—said it had temporarily prevailed over
COVID-19. Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/06/11/laos-declares-victory-over-covid-19/">said</a> that his country had “gained an important victory in the first campaign against this vicious enemy.” The first <a href="https://www.covid19.gov.la/index.php?r=site%2Fdetail&id=330">cases</a> of COVID-19 detected in Laos were registered on March 24; a total of <a href="https://www.covid19.gov.la/index.php">19 people</a> had been infected with the virus by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Laos">April 12</a>, and—after <a href="https://tinyurl.com/y724dxd9">58 days of no new cases</a>—the last patient was <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/06/11/laos-declares-victory-over-covid-19/">discharged</a>
on June 9. There were no new cases of COVID-19 in Laos since April 12
(93 days of no new cases as of July 14). There have been no <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/laos/">deaths</a> from COVID-19 in Laos.</p>
<p>Laos is a landlocked country, surrounded by the People’s Republic of
China, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, and
Cambodia. It shares a 423-kilometer border with China, across which
traders and tourists routinely travel. Nonetheless, Laos—like its
neighbor Vietnam—has had no deaths from COVID-19. Laos has been
particular about the possibility of transmission through travelers who
have crossed from neighboring countries (which is why <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/07/07/4061-individuals-isolated-amid-covid-19-concerns-in-laos/">they</a> are being held in quarantine centers for two weeks).</p>
<p><b>How Did Laos Do It?</b></p>
<p><a href="https://peoplesdispatch.org/2020/04/23/how-the-chinese-authorities-and-the-who-handled-the-coronavirus/">News came</a> from Wuhan, China, in the first week of January of the spread of a new <a href="https://www.thetricontinental.org/red-alert-7-coronavirus/">coronavirus</a>. On January 6, Laos’ Prime Minister Thongloun was in <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/07/WS5e13dc1aa310cf3e35582d59.html">Beijing</a>
for talks with China’s President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang,
where their conversations were mainly about economic development. In
particular, the leaders of the two countries discussed the China-Laos
railway, which has been in the works since 2016 and will run for
414-kilometers from Vientiane (Laos’ capital) to Boten (on the
China-Laos border). At the time, too little was known about the
coronavirus for it to have been a likely focus of the meeting. Until
January 20, there was no clarity that this virus could be <a href="https://www.thetricontinental.org/studies-2-coronavirus/">transmitted</a> from human to human. As soon as the World Health Organization <a href="https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)">declared</a> a public health emergency of international concern on January 30, the government of Laos <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/01/30/laos-steps-up-efforts-to-prevent-coronavirus-outbreak/">set up</a> a Taskforce Committee for COVID-19 Prevention and Control to monitor the virus and prevent its spread in Laos.</p>
<p>The first sign of trouble came on <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/02/03/chinese-national-carrying-coronavirus-travels-through-laos/">February 1</a>,
when Zhang Biao, who had recently visited Laos, was found to have the
virus upon his return home to Chongqing, China. On January 26, Zhang
arrived in Vientiane on a China Express Airlines flight as part of a
tourist group. He traveled with the group to Vang Vieng, a tourist
destination four hours away from Vientiane. He returned to China on
January 31, where he was found to be infected. In response, the Laotian
authorities retraced his steps, tested people who had come into contact
with him, and aggressively moved to prevent any further infections. Laos
<a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/02/02/laos-suspends-visas-at-checkpoints-bordering-china/">suspended</a> the issuance of visas to Chinese nationals, and Lao Airlines <a href="https://tinyurl.com/y8noucye">reduced</a>its
flights to China (not only is China the main market for Lao Airlines,
but the tourist trade in Laos is also almost entirely reliant upon
China). There were no confirmed <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/01/28/laos-remains-free-of-new-wuhan-coronavirus/">cases</a> of COVID-19 in Laos until almost two months later, <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/03/24/laos-confirms-first-covid-19-cases/">March 24</a>.</p>
<p>On March 5, Laos’ Deputy Minister of Health Dr. Phouthone Muongpak
held a press conference where he said that there had been 53 suspected
cases of COVID-19 in the country, but each of the patients had tested
negative. “We are confident in our surveillance system,” <a href="https://tinyurl.com/yan7sryg">said</a>
Dr. Phouthone, the deputy head of Laos’ Taskforce Committee for
COVID-19 Prevention and Control. Teams of epidemiologists traveled to
places in Laos where there were reports of deaths that appeared to be
from COVID-19; samples taken from the bodies were tested at three
laboratories: the National Center for Laboratory and Epidemiology (which
had WHO experts oversee the test), the Institut Pasteur du Laos and the
Microbiology Laboratory at Mahosot Hospital. They all came back
negative. Additionally, samples were also sent to the WHO laboratory in
Australia and came back negative, <a href="https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/04/WS5e5f4abea31012821727c44a.html">said</a> Dr. Rattanaxay Phetsouvanh, the director-general of Laos’ Department of Communicable Diseases Control.</p>
<p>The Vientiane Times <a href="https://tinyurl.com/yan7sryg">credited</a>
the lack of cases in Laos to the rigorous scanning and testing done at
ports of entry and the quarantines imposed on those who entered the
country. Even those who showed no symptoms when they entered Laos were
told to go into self-imposed quarantine for two weeks. Showing an
abundance of caution, on March 9, the government <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/laos/laos-coronavirus-public-events-03112020170451.html">declared</a> that celebrations of Lao New Year (April 13-15) would be canceled.</p>
<p>In fact, there were no cases in Laos from January 30 until March 24, when the first two confirmed <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/03/24/laos-confirms-first-covid-19-cases/">cases</a>
were reported: they were a 28-year-old male hotel worker from Vientiane
who most likely contracted the virus during a work trip to Bangkok,
Thailand, in early March, and a 36-year-old female tour guide from
Vientiane who most likely contracted it from a tourist (as reported to
me by a government official). Both patients were taken to the Mittaphab
“150 Bed” Friendship Hospital in Vientiane, which was soon to be
designated as a COVID-19 hospital.</p>
<p>Five days later, on March 29, the Lao government <a href="https://tinyurl.com/y7v9v3al">announced</a>
a full lockdown of the country. Any necessary activity would have to
follow the strict WHO protocols of physical distance, mask wearing, and
hand washing. The task force was enjoined to train medical professionals
and the security services, develop plans to break the chain of
infection (including testing, contact tracing, quarantine, and
treatment), and use the public sector to procure necessary medical
equipment (including protective gear and ventilators). The government
agencies were told to <a href="https://tinyurl.com/y7v9v3al">“provide detail[ed] guidance”</a> in an easy-to-understand format through the various government media and through a special <a href="https://www.covid19.gov.la/index.php">website</a>; only science-based information was to be transmitted to the public.</p>
<p>On July 8, Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research released a <a href="https://www.thetricontinental.org/studies-3-coronashock-and-socialism/">report</a>
called “CoronaShock and Socialism.” The text looks closely at the
experience of four parts of the world with socialist governments—Cuba,
Venezuela, Vietnam, and Kerala, India—and how these parts of the world
were able to substantially break the chain of infection. The analysis
showed that these countries were better able to deal with the virus
because they took a science-based approach, they had a public sector
that they could rely upon for the production of the materials they
needed to combat the virus, and they cultivated public action. Laos very
much followed these principles, as two officials at the Ministry of
Health informed me via telephone in early July. In addition, Laos
received essential materials (protective suits, masks) from both <a href="https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/friendship-association-assists-laos-covid-19-fight-with-500-protective-suits-18500-masks-19642.html">Vietnam</a>and <a href="https://tinyurl.com/y8yxmmk7">China</a> (Chinese medical personnel also <a href="https://tinyurl.com/ya5ldbh3">came</a> to assist the Laotian medical service).</p>
<p>In June, Prime Minister Thongloun <a href="https://laotiantimes.com/2020/06/19/international-health-organizations-praise-laos-for-covid-19-containment/">said</a>
that—for now—Laos appeared to have beaten back the virus. Dr. Howard
Sobel, the WHO representative in Laos, concurred. The response of the
government of Laos, Dr. Sobel said, “was exemplary. The government
anticipated the arrival of this terrible disease and did all the right
things to stop it spreading.” Doubts about the low number of cases and
the lack of deaths were set aside by Ludovic Arnout of the International
Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. “It’s difficult to
hide [coronavirus cases],” he said, “so I believe it.”</p>
<p><b>Impact</b></p>
<p>Laos has not fully recovered from the impact of the U.S. bombing of
the country: 2.5 million tons of U.S. bombs dropped on Laos between 1964
and 1973, with the soil in many parts of the country <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/07/agent-orange-cambodia-laos-vietnam/591412/">polluted</a> for generations. When U.S. President Barack Obama visited Laos in 2016, he <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37286520">regretted</a>
the “biggest bombing in history,” but he did not apologize for it. He
promised $90 million over three years to remove an estimated 75 million
unexploded bombs that <a href="https://www.ipsnews.net/2008/10/laos-unexploded-cluster-bombs-hold-up-farming/">continue</a> to claim lives and damage agriculture decades after the “secret war” ended.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the communist government in Laos has—with investment
from China—persisted in a development pathway that has brought some
gains for its population. Basic human indicators have <a href="https://tinyurl.com/y7ofy2zd">improved</a>, and for the past two decades unemployment has remained under 1 percent.</p>
<p>But the coronavirus recession will strike Laos very hard. In April,
Anousone Khamsingsavath, director-general of the Department of Labor
Skill Development at the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare, <a href="https://tinyurl.com/ybfsjofw">said</a>,
“Poverty in Laos will be exacerbated because large numbers of people
have been laid off from their jobs.” Her ministry “reported recently
that the unemployment rate had surged from the average of 2 percent to
25 percent at present,” according to the <a href="https://tinyurl.com/ybfsjofw">Vientiane Times</a>. The World Bank <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lao/publication/covid-19-to-impact-lao-pdr-growth-debt-in-2020-new-world-bank-report">noted</a>
that while Laos has “so far avoided a health crisis,” it has not been
“immune from the global economic downturn.” Growth rates, which had been
estimated before the pandemic to be secure at 7 percent, will <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/lao/publication/covid-19-to-impact-lao-pdr-growth-debt-in-2020-new-world-bank-report">collapse</a> to near zero as a consequence of the global coronavirus recession.</p>
<p>Most terrifyingly, this will mean that Laos, which had a relatively
stable economy, will slip into debt and chaos. In May, Fitch Ratings <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-laos-outlook-to-negative-affirms-rating-at-b-15-05-2020#:~:text=Fitch%20Ratings%20%2D%20Hong%20Kong%20%2D%2015,Outlook%20to%20Negative%20from%20Stable.">downgraded</a>
Laos’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to B- and
revised its overall outlook from “Stable” to “Negative.” This change in
Laos’ economy is mostly due to the effects of the coronavirus on the
global economy. Laos is slated to make a debt servicing payment of about
$900 million in 2020, money that it simply cannot afford to pay (its
foreign exchange reserves are a mere $1 billion).</p>
<p>“We defeated the virus crisis,” a government official told me. “Now
we are going to be defeated by the debt crisis, which we did not
create.”</p>
<p><i>This article was produced by </i><a href="https://independentmediainstitute.org/globetrotter/"><i>Globetrotter</i></a><i>, a project of the Independent Media Institute.</i></p>
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<em><strong>Vijay Prashad’s</strong> most recent book is No Free Left: The Futures of Indian Communism (New Delhi: LeftWord Books, 2015).</em>
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