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<div class="header reader-header reader-show-element" dir="ltr"> <font
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href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14521">https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14521</a></font>
<h1 class="reader-title">Washington Doubles Down on its Military
Intervention Script in Venezuela</h1>
<div class="credits reader-credits">By Patrick Leet – NACLA -
June 3, 2019<br>
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<p>“These [Trump administration] guys are so desperate
for a win—and with so much testosterone in their
veins, I am really worried they are going to do
something really stupid.”</p>
<p>No, this isn't about Iran. That was Fulton Armstrong,
a former senior Latin American analyst with the CIA
and currently faculty member at American University,
assessing the Trump administration’s approach to
Venezuela in a May 3 article in <a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/03/venezuela-protests-news-latest-maduro-uprising-that-fizzled-"
target="_blank">The Guardian</a>.</p>
<p>With the dust now settled after the recent failed
coup in Venezuela, Washington's high hopes of regime
change “from within” have not materialized. For the
last few months, U.S. strategy in Venezuela has
hitched its cart to Juan Guaidó, the self-proclaimed
“president” of Venezuela. His political destiny has
depended on U.S. strategy, and vice versa. With
Venezuela's opposition and their newest leader losing
force, and U.S. President Trump showing signs of <a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-frustrated-trump-questions-his-administrations-venezuela-strategy/2019/05/08/ad51561a-71a7-11e9-9f06-5fc2ee80027a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.991e0a322975"
target="_blank">frustration</a>, hardline elements
are more emboldened.</p>
<p>On May 9, Craig Faller, head of U.S. Southern Command
(SOUTHCOM) <a
href="https://www.diariolasamericas.com/eeuu/jefe-del-comando-sur-dice-estar-listo-apoyar-militares-que-respalden-guaido-n4177142"
target="_blank">tweeted</a> that he was awaiting an
invitation from Guaidó to discuss further cooperation.
Two days later, Washington’s “man in Caracas”
instructed his representative in Washington to meet
with U.S. SOUTHCOM, requesting help with “<a
href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/13/venezuela-news-latest-guaido-us-military-help-maduro"
target="_blank">strategic planning</a>.” The meeting
on May 20 produced seemingly little, but this
back-and-forth is a dangerous precedent, as fringe
elements in Washington and Caracas are increasingly
defining their policy approach in military terms.</p>
<p>Though Guaidó has become a major component of U.S.
strategy in Venezuela, his promises have proven
greater than his capabilities and actual political
sway in the country. <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/world/americas/nicolas-maduro-venezuela-military.html"
target="_blank">Once again</a><u>,</u> the
highly-touted split in the Venezuelan military did not
become reality during the coup he led on April 30.
Perhaps stating the obvious, <a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/need-more-soldiers-venezuelas-guaido-says-opposition-overestimated-military-support-before-failed-uprising/2019/05/04/72561cb8-6e8b-11e9-bbe7-1c798fb80536_story.html?utm_term=.66f1edfd6668"
target="_blank">Guaidó told the <em>Washington Pos</em>t
on May 4</a> that the opposition had overestimated
military support for the coup attempt.</p>
<p>Putting it bluntly, well known anti-Maduro <em>CNN en
Español</em> journalist Fernando Rincón recently
asked Guaidó, twice, about accusations that the
Venezuelan opposition was <a
href="https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/juan-guaido-venezuela-crisis-opciones-intervencion-entrevista-fernando-del-rincon-conclu/"
target="_blank">"inept</a><a
href="https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/video/juan-guaido-venezuela-crisis-opciones-intervencion-entrevista-fernando-del-rincon-conclu/">."</a> Other
opposition <a
href="https://noticiaaldia.com/2019/05/vladimir-villegas-a-guaido-vamos-bien-ni-de-vaina/"
target="_blank">opinion makers</a> have reflected
similar sentiments.</p>
<p>What was once presented to Trump as a quick-fix
regime change has proven much more difficult. Recently
calling Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro a <a
href="https://www.newsweek.com/trump-venezuela-maduro-tough-cookie-guaido-1420678"
target="_blank">"tough cookie"</a>, the U.S.
president has expressed frustration, even questioning
his own administration’s strategy. This has provoked
yet another return to the drawing board in Washington,
in a year filled with roller-coaster moments in
Venezuela.</p>
<p>On January 23, Venezuelans in Miami were “jubilant”
as Guaidó swore himself in as self-declared president
in front of <a
href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/01/23/venezuela-juan-guaido-declares-himself-president-amid-protests/2658642002/"
target="_blank">tens of thousands</a> of opposition
supporters. The second-string politician was then
catapulted into international stardom as the leader of
a U.S.-backed attempted soft-coup, Washington’s new
modality of changing unfriendly Latin American
governments. U.S. allies across Latin America
immediately backed Guaidó, with most U.S. allies in
Europe following suit, albeit with somewhat more
caution. Most of the rest of the countries of the
world continue supporting the current Venezuelan
government.</p>
<p>With Washington's no-turning-back support, at a
February 12 march Guaidó announced that humanitarian
aid would enter the country <a
href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/21/americas/venezuela-aid-power-struggle-intl/index.html"
target="_blank">"one way or another."</a> In a made
for TV public relations spectacle, the star-studded <a
href="https://peru21.pe/mundo/aid-live-venezuela-vivo-sigue-concierto-pro-ayuda-humanitaria-cucuta-video-461493"
target="_blank">rock concert</a> on the
Colombian-Venezuelan border on February 23 was the
would-be point of entry for the Trojan Horse of U.S.
“humanitarian aid.” But that aid wasn’t to be, as
Venezuela didn’t permit such a clear violation of
their national sovereignty.</p>
<p>With members of Trump's cabinet in photo-ops
alongside the <a
href="https://fair.org/home/western-media-fall-in-lockstep-for-cheap-trump-rubio-venezuela-aid-pr-stunt/"
target="_blank">highly politicized</a> humanitarian
aid efforts, not to mention visits across Latin
America to discuss Venezuela, there has been clear
coordination between Washington and the Venezuelan
opposition pushing to unseat Maduro.</p>
<p><strong>Ratcheting up Regime Change Strategy</strong></p>
<p>Pots and pans banged loudly in opposition strongholds
in Caracas when blackouts spread across the city in
March, but regime change plotters were beginning to
acknowledge that there was <a
href="http://elestimulo.com/blog/los-60-dias-de-juan-guaido/"
target="_blank">"more needed"</a> to continue
momentum. The April 30 attempted military coup would
be a make-or-break moment.</p>
<p>Guaidó had billed the opposition march the next day
on May 1 as <a
href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/global/convoca-guaido-a-marcha-mas-grande-de-la-historia/1310476"
target="_blank">"the largest march in the history of
the country</a><a
href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/global/convoca-guaido-a-marcha-mas-grande-de-la-historia/1310476">."</a> However,
fewer showed up compared to his earlier rallies.
Independent journalist Michael Fox reported from the
scene that “a block away it was empty” saying it was
“nothing in comparison” to earlier marches. (His <a
href="https://www.thenation.com/article/venezuela-coup-media-guaido/"
target="_blank">reporting</a> also helped clarify
that that the “takeover” on the morning of the coup
was of an overpass near a military base, and not the
actual military base, as <a
href="https://www.salon.com/2019/05/08/failed-venezuela-coup-was-fake-news-designed-to-fool-people-in-two-nations/"
target="_blank">CNN and the<em> N</em></a><a
href="https://www.salon.com/2019/05/08/failed-venezuela-coup-was-fake-news-designed-to-fool-people-in-two-nations/"><em>ew </em></a><a
href="https://www.salon.com/2019/05/08/failed-venezuela-coup-was-fake-news-designed-to-fool-people-in-two-nations/"><em>Y</em></a><a
href="https://www.salon.com/2019/05/08/failed-venezuela-coup-was-fake-news-designed-to-fool-people-in-two-nations/"><em>ork</em></a><a
href="https://www.salon.com/2019/05/08/failed-venezuela-coup-was-fake-news-designed-to-fool-people-in-two-nations/"
target="_blank"><em> Times</em></a> had claimed.)</p>
<p>Guaidó called for a post-coup <a
href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172wx8lftrcgpd"
target="_blank">general strike</a> that also fell
flat, with storefronts across Caracas open and no
reports on participation numbers.</p>
<p>Again, on May 11 international observers described
the “low turnout” at a march to support Guaidó and the
National Assembly, with between and <a
href="https://nypost.com/2019/05/11/mick-jaggers-ex-vanessa-neumann-hired-as-envoy-in-venezuelan-uprising/">1</a><a
href="https://nypost.com/2019/05/11/mick-jaggers-ex-vanessa-neumann-hired-as-envoy-in-venezuelan-uprising/"
target="_blank">,</a><a
href="https://nypost.com/2019/05/11/mick-jaggers-ex-vanessa-neumann-hired-as-envoy-in-venezuelan-uprising/"
target="_blank">000</a> and <a
href="https://www.t13.cl/noticia/mundo/baja-asistencia-ultima-marcha-convocada-guaido"
target="_blank">2</a><a
href="https://www.t13.cl/noticia/mundo/baja-asistencia-ultima-marcha-convocada-guaido">,</a><a
href="https://www.t13.cl/noticia/mundo/baja-asistencia-ultima-marcha-convocada-guaido"
target="_blank">000</a> participants—a <a
href="https://nypost.com/2019/05/11/mick-jaggers-ex-vanessa-neumann-hired-as-envoy-in-venezuelan-uprising/"
target="_blank">"far cry"</a> from the opposition's
street-heat earlier this year. According to the <em>New
York Times</em>, the coup attempt left the
Venezuelan opposition <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/opinion/venezuela-maduro-guaido.html"
target="_blank">“weaker than before</a><a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/02/opinion/venezuela-maduro-guaido.html">."</a> The
Venezuelan opposition has not called any further
marches.</p>
<p>With a worn out and worn down Venezuelan opposition
and a general sense of Guaidó buyer’s remorse,
Washington doubled down on its aggressive, unilateral
strategy. Despite the failed coup, or perhaps because
of it, members of the Trump administration have been
ratcheting up the rhetoric. The military option has
been mentioned more frequently, although Trump has
suggested that perhaps members of his cabinet are <a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-frustrated-trump-questions-his-administrations-venezuela-strategy/2019/05/08/ad51561a-71a7-11e9-9f06-5fc2ee80027a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.991e0a322975"
target="_blank">overplaying their hand</a>.</p>
<p>Trump officials seem to be on a crusade to find new
legitimate-enough justification for a U.S. military
adventure. With Trump's policy of family separation
and caging of immigrant children in the U.S., its
“humanitarian concern” is entirely without merit.</p>
<p>The groundwork for making such justifications was
laid back in 2015, when the Obama administration
passed a presidential decree declaring the South
American nation an <a
href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/extraordinary-threat-u-s-brands-venezuela-emergency-n319996"
target="_blank">"unusual and extraordinary threat"</a> to
U.S. national security. This move opened the legal,
political and military door much further, allowing
hardline elements in Washington to maneuver more with
greater legitimacy. Whether the justification du-jour
is “national security”, democracy-promotion,
humanitarian aid, or other, the legal and political
precedent was in place for harsh sanctions and direct
military involvement.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly, radical elements of the Trump
Administration have taken advantage of this, with
intensified talk and increasing mentions of the
“military option.” <a
href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/03/politics/trump-caution-bolton-venezuela/index.html"
target="_blank">Secretary of State Mike Pompeo </a>has
said, “Military action is possible. If that's what's
required, that's what the United States will do.” U.S.
National Security Advisor John Bolton has also said
military action in Venezuela is <a
href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/01/politics/mike-pompeo-venezuela-military-action/index.html"
target="_blank">“possible</a><a
href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/01/politics/mike-pompeo-venezuela-military-action/index.html">.”</a></p>
<p>Almost every member of Trump's cabinet has tried to
paint Venezuela as something of a beachhead in Latin
America for U.S. government adversaries, from Russia
and China to Cuba and Iran. Bolton recently stated
that the <a
href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/05/11/john-bolton-and-the-monroe-doctrine"
target="_blank">Monroe Doctrine</a> is “alive and
well,” embracing the offensive neo-colonial role of
the U.S. in Latin America. Pompeo and Bolton have
shown “concern” for threats to Venezuelan sovereignty
due to Chinese investment or the <a
href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/05/03/donald-trump-putin-not-meddling-venezuela-contradicts-pompeo-bolton/1090693001/"
target="_blank">Russians taking over a country in
the Western Hemisphere</a>.</p>
<p>The “all the options on the table” mantra doesn't
mean consensus on all options. The Bolton-Pompeo
extremist tendency, bolstered by the U.S. SOUTHCOM has
recently <a
href="https://www.businessinsider.com/paul-selva-john-bolton-aides-meeting-venezuela-2019-5"
target="_blank">clashed</a> even with the Pentagon.
Trump has mentioned in jest that Bolton wants to get
him <a
href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-venezuela-war-john-bolton-maduro-guaido-us-coup-a8905906.html"
target="_blank">"into a war"</a> with Venezuela.
Trump has felt as though Bolton and Pompeo are
getting <a
href="https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/vb97k3/even-trump-thinks-john-bolton-is-too-hawkish-on-iran"
target="_blank">"way out ahead of themselves</a>" as
well when it comes to Iran. He has also said that
Putin is <a
href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/05/03/donald-trump-putin-not-meddling-venezuela-contradicts-pompeo-bolton/1090693001/"
target="_blank">"not looking at all to get involved
in Venezuela</a><a
href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2019/05/03/donald-trump-putin-not-meddling-venezuela-contradicts-pompeo-bolton/1090693001/">."</a></p>
<p><strong>A Twist in the Plot</strong></p>
<p>In addition to the U.S. SOUTHCOM talks, Guaidó has
begrudgingly agreed to <a
href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190516-venezuelas-guaido-confirms-norway-mediation-effort"
target="_blank">negotiations in Norway</a> between
his representatives and a Venezuelan government envoy,
aimed at a diplomatic defusing. With his street
support at home drying up and in Washington’s
doghouse, Guaidó has been trying to keep his political
boat afloat elsewhere. The talks in Norway would seem
to be the only process that actually brings together
the Venezuelan government and the Venezuelan
opposition, leaving Washington out in the cold.</p>
<p>There is also Russia. A Venezuelan ally, Russia has
been very critical of Washington's role.
Paradoxically, a critical Putin is one of the few
people that would seem to have Trump's ear, and could
be a determining factor in helping put the brakes on
the Washington hardliners.</p>
<p>Does Cuba have a part to play? The Lima Group, an
organization of U.S.-allied countries in Latin
America, interestingly suggested the Venezuelan ally
as a possible mediator. While <a
href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-canada-venezuela-idUSKCN1SM261"
target="_blank">Havana is open to mediating</a> talks,
the suggestion runs contrary to Washington's <a
href="http://www.periodico26.cu/index.php/en/cuba-news/item/15460-us-intensifies-hostility-against-cuba-by-announcing-new-measures-tweet"
target="_blank">increasing hostility</a> towards
Cuba.</p>
<p>Back in Washington, as the few fringe elements
continue pounding their war drums, with many questions
remaining.</p>
<p>Will the U.S. government recognize and respect
negotiations between Venezuelans in Norway, perhaps
the negotiated option that comes closest to respecting
Venezuelan sovereignty? Or will John Bolton, Mike
Pompeo, the U.S. SOUTHCOM, and the small group of
extremists in the Trump administration sway the
decision-making? In a recent interview, the head of
the U.S. SOUTHCOM, Craig Faller, said his troops were <a
href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-on-the-balls-of-its-feet-to-respond-to-crisis-in-venezuela-2019-5"
target="_blank">"on the balls of their feet."</a> Bolton
responded: <a
href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/venezuelas-opposition-put-together-a-serious-plan-for-now-it-appears-to-have-failed/2019/05/01/7df68fe0-6c19-11e9-be3a-33217240a539_story.html?utm_term=.78730c6a49da"
target="_blank">"That's the attitude we need."</a> So
far, the Trump administration, just like Obama before
him, has been drastically out of touch, continuing the
Monroe Doctrine legacy, as Bolton so clearly stated.</p>
<p>While the most radical tendencies in Washington and
Caracas flirt with a military option, the vast
majority of Venezuelans <a
href="https://therealnews.com/stories/guaido-calls-for-us-military-cooperation-but-few-venezuelans-support-the-move"
target="_blank">don</a><a
href="https://therealnews.com/stories/guaido-calls-for-us-military-cooperation-but-few-venezuelans-support-the-move">'</a><a
href="https://therealnews.com/stories/guaido-calls-for-us-military-cooperation-but-few-venezuelans-support-the-move"
target="_blank">t </a><a
href="https://therealnews.com/stories/guaido-calls-for-us-military-cooperation-but-few-venezuelans-support-the-move"
target="_blank">support</a> a U.S. military
intervention in their country.</p>
<p>Reinaldo Iturriza, a researcher at Venezuela´s
National Center for Historical Studies, reflects on
who is defining U.S. policy right now: “When Trump is
in meetings with the members of his cabinet most
active on Venezuela…when a character such as Trump
needs to caution these people, that they should stop
talking publicly about military intervention…it is
very hard to be to the right of Trump. These are the
people that are talking about Venezuela these days.”</p>
<p><em>Patrick Leet is an independent journalist and
professor in the Political Studies program at the
Bolivarian University of Venezuela.</em></p>
<p><em>The views expressed in this article are the
author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of
the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.</em></p>
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