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<h1 class="reader-title">Venezuela: Guaidó’s Botched Coup – What
Does it Mean and What's Next?</h1>
<div class="credits reader-credits">By Jorge Martin - May 2,
2019<br>
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<p>Just before dawn on 30 April, the Venezuelan
opposition launched yet another attempt at a military
coup. By the end of the day, the botched coup attempt
seemed to have failed, with one of its leaders seeking
refuge in the Spanish embassy, 25 of the soldiers
involved requesting asylum at the Brazilian embassy
and Juan Guaidó in hiding or on the run.</p>
<p>The coup started at 5.46 am with a video message by
Guaidó, who proclaimed himself president in charge on
24 January at a street rally, but who has not moved an
inch closer to Miraflores Palace since. In the video,
he appeared outside La Carlota military airbase in the
east of Caracas, together with a small group of army
soldiers. Also present was Leopoldo López, the
opposition leader under house arrest for his role in
the deadly <em>guarimba</em> riots of 2014.
Apparently, he had been released by the SEBIN
intelligence officers in charge of guarding him.</p>
<p>Guaidó’s message was clear: “I am with the main
military units of our Armed Forces starting the final
phase of ‘Operation Freedom’”. This was the final
battle against ‘usurpation’. The presence of López was
a powerful prop. However, as was to become clear in
the following hours, his claims to have the support of
the “main military units” was a lie. He did not have
control of any military units or bases, no commanding
officers were on his side. In fact, despite claims to
the contrary he was not inside La Carlota base, but
outside. He had not taken control of any TV or radio
stations.</p>
<p>Guaidó called on the people to come out on the
streets nationally. Some joined him in the east of
Caracas and clashed with the National Guard protecting
the air base. At one point, the hundreds of rioters,
which included a few soldiers, managed to breach the
outside perimeter, but were repelled with tear gas
volleys. Not what you would expect from a ‘proper’
military coup.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, at the other end of Caracas, thousands had
gathered outside the Miraflores Palace after an appeal
made by Maduro on Twitter just after 10am, where he
also said that he had contacted the chiefs of all
military units and that they were all loyal to his
government. A few high-ranking Bolivarian officials
spoke, particularly Diosdado Cabello, but other than
that the stage was given to representatives of the
chavista left and rank-and-file organisations, which
never feature in the official demonstrations. The mood
was one of determination, there was a spirit of
resistance.</p>
<h2>Imperialist support</h2>
<p>Of course, the US rushed to support the coup in
Venezuela with tweets and statements by Trump, Pompeo,
Elliot Abrams, Marco Rubio et al. They were followed
by the presidents of Brazil, Colombia, Chile and even
the European Parliament. Organisation of American
States secretary general, Almagro also joined the
chorus.</p>
<p>During the day, Pompeo and Bolton made all sorts of
statements and insinuations in an attempt to bolster
Guaidó’s effort. Pompeo hinted that high-ranking
officials in Venezuela had agreed in talks with the US
to remove Maduro. Bolton specifically mentioned
Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino, military
counter-intelligence (DGCIM) and Presidential Guard
chief Ivan Hernandez, and Supreme Court of Justice
Maikel Moreno. "Key figures in the regime” had been
“talking to the opposition over these last three
months”, he said and appealed to them to “make good on
their commitments to achieve the peaceful transfer of
power from the Maduro clique.” Later on, Bolton
declared that Maduro had had a plane ready to leave
for Cuba but had been dissuaded by the Russians.
Despite all this boasting and psychological pressure,
Padrino came out in a televised address expressing,
once again, his loyalty to the government.</p>
<p>Things on the ground in Venezuela were not going
well. Some of Guaidó’s soldiers took the first
opportunity to defect, claiming they had been tricked.
One of them explained how officers had given them
weapons at the Helicoide, the SEBIN headquarters, and
told they were going to put down a mass jailbreak.</p>
<p>After being repelled at La Carlota, and when it
became clear that the coup was fizzling out, Guaidó
still tried another trick. He led a few thousand of
his supporters, including some of the soldiers he had
in his video in the morning, westwards towards
Miraflores Palace. This was an attempt to repeat the
script of the 2002 coup, when the opposition leaders
marched their supporters to the presidential palace,
where they would be attacked by snipers hired to
create a justification for a military coup. As Marx
once said, history repeats itself, first as a tragedy
and then as a farce.</p>
<p>Guaidó did not have the hundreds of thousands the
opposition commanded on April 2002, and his triumphant
march was swiftly blocked by the National Guard. He
quickly retreated to Altamira in the east.</p>
<h2>A pitiful defeat</h2>
<p>As dawn approached in Caracas, Leopoldo Lopez and his
family had hidden in the Chilean embassy and 25
soldiers were asking for asylum at the Brazilian
embassy. There was an announcement that Guaidó was
going to address the nation at 6pm, but the time came
and went and nothing happened. The coup seemed to have
completely fizzled out. Later on, Lopez and his family
moved to the Spanish embassy.</p>
<p>Trump was so frustrated that he issued even more
threats against Cuba:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“If Cuban Troops and Militia do not immediately
CEASE military and other operations for the purpose
of causing death and destruction to the Constitution
of Venezuela, a full and complete embargo, together
with highest-level sanctions, will be placed on the
island of Cuba.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This is completely preposterous. The reason why the
attempts at regime change by the US in Venezuela have
so far failed is not because of “operations” by “Cuban
Troops” to cause “destruction to the Constitution”,
but rather a combination of the stupidity and
miscalculations of the Venezuelan opposition and its
masters in Washington, the resilience and
anti-imperialist spirit of a large section of the
Venezuelan people, and the support that Russia and
China are providing the government. In fact, US
sanctions, its seizure of Venezuelan assets and other
imperialist measures are certainly causing death and
destruction!</p>
<p>It is clear that Trump thinks that, by exerting
pressure on the Cuban Revolution, he will be able to
break the back of the Maduro government. The US has
already toughened up sanctions against Cuba, including
implementing, for the first time, a clause in the
Helms-Burton act that allows US citizens to sue
companies in third countries using property in Cuba
that was expropriated during the revolution. This is a
scandalous act of imperialist aggression, which can
have a very negative impact on the already fragile
Cuban economy.</p>
<p>Finally, at 8.24pm, Guaidó came out with a delirious
video message on Twitter. Rather than admitting the
failure of his attempt, he announced “tomorrow [May 1]
we will continue the implementation of Operation
Freedom,” he thanked the Armed Forces for their
“support” while insisting that “Maduro does not have
control of the Armed Forces”.</p>
<p>The problem for Guaidó and Trump is that they have
built the momentum to a “day of reckoning” twice
already, on January 24 and February 23, and failed on
both occasions. Very soon, if the situation does not
turn in Guaidó’s favour today, we will start to see
the fracturing of the opposition amongst mutual
recriminations and backstabbing. The opposition ranks,
mainly drawn from middle-and-middle-upper class
layers, will feel disappointed and betrayed by their
own leaders, once again, as was the case with the 2014
and 2017 <em>guarimbas</em>.</p>
<h2>Why did the coup fail?</h2>
<p>The failed coup yesterday raises a number of
questions. This was a completely botched attempt: the
coup did not control any military bases nor units, had
no support from any commanding officers, no TV or
radio stations were taken and it was dispersed with
tear gas, so, why did they launch it?</p>
<p>Did they expect support which did not materialise?
Did they believe their own lies about mass support
amongst the population and an amy that was ready to
crack and all that was needed was a spark in the form
of action? Was it pure desperation at their lack of
success? Why did they not wait until 1 May, when they
had announced mass demonstrations? Did they fear the
turn out was not going to be massive?</p>
<p>The government, for its part, seems to have acted in
a very indecisive manner. No TV statements by Maduro
for 15 hours, no use of the army to crush the coup, no
high-ranking government officers at the rally in
Miraflores. Was it an attempt to prevent bloodshed in
an open military clash, as Maduro argued in his TV
address last night? Was the government unaware of how
far the conspiracy went? Was it not sure that it could
count on military units to use them against the coup?</p>
<p>Some are saying the coup had high-ranking support
from SEBIN, DGCIM and other units, but it was launched
prematurely, and that it had been planned for 2 May,
after the intended opposition rallies on 1 May. This
would go some way to explaining today's somewhat
bizarre events, and it would be a worrying sign for
the future, as it would mean military commanders were
involved, but recoiled at the last minute. From what
we know, there were elements in SEBIN involved in the
coup. Some of the soldiers taking part declared that
they had been given weapons at the SEBIN headquarters.
Apparently, SEBIN director Manuel Christopher Figuera
was removed from his position and arrested.</p>
<p>All along, we have said that the fight against the
coup cannot be left to the army generals. They have
their own interests and that is what they will defend.
As long as they think these are best defended by the
Maduro government, they will remain loyal. If they
think this government is going down and is no longer
able to protect their interests, they will seek to
intervene in order to guarantee them in the short,
medium and long term.</p>
<div>
<blockquote data-lang="en">
<div>
<p>1) To all intents and purposes the botched coup
today in Venezuela has collapsed. Leopoldo Lopez
is in the Chilean embassy. 25 coup soldiers are
in the Brazilian embassy. Guaidó is on the run.</p>
<p>Thousands came out to defend the Miraflores
Palace. <a href="https://t.co/AYlEgydtZH">pic.twitter.com/AYlEgydtZH</a></p>
</div>
<p>— Jorge Martin (@marxistJorge) <a
href="https://twitter.com/marxistJorge/status/1123331347987271680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April
30, 2019</a></p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<p>The continuation of the economic crisis, aggravated
by sanctions, together with international pressure,
might, at a certain stage push key players within the
Armed Forces to want to save their own skins by
removing Maduro.</p>
<p>Even now, the situation is not completely under
control. Guaidó has led an actual coup attempt, with
troops, and has not yet been arrested. Lopez has not
been arrested either and remains free to hop from one
embassy to another.</p>
<p>The IMT and the Venezuelan comrades from Lucha de
Clases in Venezuela have argued since January that
Guaidó should be arrested, the National Assembly
disbanded and strong measures taken against coup
plotters, including arming and developing the militia
and expropriating the coup plotters and imperialism.
Furthermore, we argued against moving Leopoldo Lopez
from jail to house arrest. Events yesterday are a
further demonstration that we were right.</p>
<p>Today is May Day, and there will be opposition and
chavista demonstrations in Caracas and across
Venezuela. The fact that Washington’s coup attempts
have been so far unsuccessful does not mean they are
going to abandon their aims. Yesterday, <em>Yahoo News</em> published
a report about the proposal by private mercenary
company, Blackwater to create a 5,000 strong mercenary
army to intervene in Venezuela. US sanctions and
seizing of Venezuelan assets are having a crippling
impact on an economy already weakened by five years of
recession.</p>
<p>Our duty is to oppose this imperialist aggression, as
we have consistently done since this latest attempt
began on 24 January. At the same time, we must point
out the only methods that can guarantee victory over
the counter-revolution. The Venezuelan comrades of
Lucha de Clases were outside Miraflores Palace
yesterday. In a <a
href="https://luchadeclases.org.ve/?p=7404">statement</a>,
they put forward the following slogans: Jail Guaidó,
disband the coup-plotting National Assembly,
strengthen and spread the Bolivarian militias, respond
to the seizing of assets by expropriating imperialist
multinationals, expropriate the coup-plotting
bourgeoisie, workers control of production, down with
bureaucracy, complete the revolution with
rank-and-file organisation.</p>
<p><em>The views expressed in this article are the
author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of
the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.</em></p>
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