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<div class="header reader-header reader-show-element" dir="ltr"> <font
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href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/01/30/trumps-coup-in-venezuela-the-full-story/">https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/01/30/trumps-coup-in-venezuela-the-full-story/</a></font>
<h1 class="reader-title">Trump’s Coup in Venezuela: The Full
Story</h1>
<span class="post_author_intro">by</span> <span
class="post_author" itemprop="author"><a
href="https://www.counterpunch.org/author/eric-draitser/"
rel="nofollow">Eric Draitser</a> - Janyary 30, 2019</span></div>
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<p>The US-sponsored coup in Venezuela, still ongoing as I
write, is the latest chapter in the long and bloody
history of US imperialism in Latin America. This basic
fact, understood by most across the left of the
political spectrum – including even the chattering
liberal class which acknowledges this truth only with
the passage of time and never in the moment – must
undergird any analysis of the situation in Venezuela
today. That is to say, the country is being targeted by
the Yanqui Empire.</p>
<p>This point is, or at least should be, indisputable
irrespective of one’s opinions of Venezuelan President
Maduro, the Socialist Party (PSUV), or the progress of
the Bolivarian Revolution. Imperialism, and its
neocolonial manifestation in the 21<sup>st</sup>
Century, is there to pick clean the bones of the
Bolivarian dream and return Venezuela to the role of
subservient asset, an oil-soaked proxy state ruled by a
right-wing satrap eager to please the colonial lords of
capital.</p>
<p>But in providing analysis of the situation, the Left
must tread carefully with the knowledge that though it
may be weak, disorganized, fragmented, and bitterly
sectarian, the Left remains the principal vehicle for
cogent analysis of imperialism and its machinations.
This historic role that the Left has played, from Lenin
and Mao to Hobsbawm and Chomsky, is of critical
importance as analysis informs discourse which in turn
ossifies into historical narrative.</p>
<p>And with that weighty and historic responsibility, the
Left is duty-bound to understand at a deep level what
we’re witnessing in Venezuela. Moreover, the Left must
beware the pitfalls of shallow, superficial analysis
which can lead to poor understanding of material
reality, and even poorer anti-imperialist politics.</p>
<p><b>It’s the Oil…Or Is It?</b></p>
<p>One could be forgiven for immediately assuming that the
blatantly illegal coup, and its near instantaneous
recognition by the Trump Administration (among others),
is proof positive that the US has instigated the
overthrow of the Bolivarian Revolution in a nakedly
aggressive action to steal oil resources. Indeed, this
would be a near textbook example of the sort of colonial
policies visited upon the peoples of the Global South
since the dawn of the colonial age.</p>
<p>And there’s no doubt some truth to the conclusion. As
Democratic presidential hopeful Tulsi Gabbard <a
href="https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1090079510291197952?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet">noted</a>
on Twitter, “It’s about the oil…again,” referencing the
parallel to the Bush Administration’s crime against
humanity known as the Iraq War which was, in no small
part, about enriching Dick Cheney’s Halliburton, and the
US <a
href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/03/19/opinion/iraq-war-oil-juhasz/index.html">oil
industry</a> broadly speaking.</p>
<p>And Gabbard is correct to highlight statements by
Trump’s National Security Warlock, John Bolton, whose
every word oozes the sociopathy we’ve come to expect
from this most hawkish of neocons. Bolton <a
href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?457335-1/trump-administration-officials-announce-sanctions-venezuelan-oil-sector&live">stated</a>
in a press conference, “We’re in conversation with major
American companies now…it would make a difference if we
could have American companies produce the oil in
Venezuela. We both have a lot at stake here.”</p>
<p>Leaving aside the likely deliberate ambiguity of these
statements – What are these “conversations”? Does this
mean there was no production plan before the coup was
initiated? etc. – it seems obvious that oil is a major
motivating factor.</p>
<p>But why, exactly?</p>
<p>As anyone with even basic knowledge of the global oil
market can tell you, there are a number of reasons why
we should be skeptical of the idea that the US simply
wants to rake in profits by stealing Venezuela’s oil,
its primary resource and export revenue generator.</p>
<p>First, global oil prices have remained fairly depressed
in comparison to the historic highs of just a decade
ago. With the price per barrel hovering somewhere
between $50 and $60 today, Venezuelan crude remains
profitable, but due to its heavy qualities, it requires
somewhat more expensive refining technologies, making it
less attractive than some other oil reserves, most
notably shale.</p>
<p>This is not to say that oil companies would not be
interested in looting this natural resource, as
evidenced by <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/11450">ExxonMobil
desperately trying to control the Essequibo region</a>
which continues to be a source of competing territorial
claims between Guyana and Venezuela. The <a
href="http://cgxenergy.ca/Operations/About-Guyana/Basin-Potential.aspx">USGS
estimated</a> roughly 15 billion barrels of
undiscovered oil and 42 trillion cubic feet of gas
reserves lie under the Guyana Suriname Basin, making it
2nd in the world for prospectivity among the world’s
unexplored basins and 12th for oil among all the world’s
basins – explored and unexplored.</p>
<p>However, from a pure profit perspective, Venezuelan oil
remains far less profitable (and stable from an investor
perspective) than investing in the Permian Basin in
Texas where the fracking boom, also hampered by global
oil prices, has continued unabated. Indeed, with the US
becoming an exporter of oil, and <a
href="#5520bb475ccb">potentially the most productive
oil field in the world in the Permian Basin</a>, the
appetite for simply snatching Venezuela’s oil supply
would seem to be less.</p>
<p>And yet, here we are. So, what gives?</p>
<p><b>The View from Washington and Moscow</b></p>
<p>In fact, the fixation on Venezuela’s oil is only part
of the story. The real story is the politics, and
geopolitics, behind control over the oil. Put simply,
control of Venezuelan oil is part of the broader
international conflict with Russia, and perhaps to a
lesser degree <a
href="https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14056">China</a>.</p>
<p>In 2016, as Venezuela’s economy was in freefall due in
no small part to the historic lows in oil price ($35 per
barrel in January 2016), the Maduro government took the
<a
href="https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-pdvsa-idUSL1N1EI1FO">controversial
decision</a> to stake 49.9% of its ownership in
PDVSA’s US subsidiary, Citgo, to the Russian state oil
company Rosneft in exchange for a $1.5 billion loan. In
essence, the Kremlin gave Caracas a very temporary
bailout with major strings attached. With this move, the
Russians effectively became part owners of Venezuela’s
primary asset.</p>
<p>But Russia, being one of the world’s leading oil
producers itself, surely had little interest in the oil
per se. After all, Russian energy exports remain
dominant in Europe, with expanding operations in Asia.
Instead, Venezuelan oil was to be a potent lever against
the US at precisely the moment the US was applying
political and economic pressure on Moscow over the
conflict in Ukraine, among other things. It should be
remembered that the Obama Administration had <a
href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/06/executive-order-blocking-property-certain-persons-contributing-situation">imposed
sanctions</a> against Moscow in March 2014 over the
Russian annexation of Crimea, and later involvement in
the civil war in Eastern Ukraine.</p>
<p>With the US and European sanctions, some of which
targeted Russia’s oil industry, the Kremlin was
desperate for strategies to leverage against the US both
to extract a cost for the sanctions, but perhaps more
importantly for potential future negotiations. Putin
& Co. settled on, at least in part, Venezuela’s oil
sector. By providing what amounted to a relatively small
loan of $1.5 billion, Russia immediately became a
dominant player in Venezuela’s oil, thereby becoming a
power player with Washington’s political and economic
strategy.</p>
<p>And indeed this strategy, or at least recognition of
it, was confirmed by powerful US interests in early 2018
when a still shadowy group of US investors made a move
to try to purchase the Russian stake in Citgo.</p>
<p>Essentially, the plan, which was <a
href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-citgo-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-investors-seek-to-acquire-russias-rosneft-lien-in-citgo-idUSKCN1GA2J4">revealed
to Reuters</a> by an anonymous investor who is part of
the group, called for the investors to pay off
Venezuela’s outstanding loan balance and then require
Rosneft to terminate its lien and transfer the loan to
new investors. As the investor told Reuters:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The [Trump] administration should recognize that if
it doesn’t do something pro-active here, it will
face…limited options under almost any scenario,
whether it is an attempt to foreclose by the current
lienholder, further restrictions on Venezuelan crude
oil imports into the U.S., or even in the event there
is a positive political change in Caracas… This is a
private sector solution to a public policy problem.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It doesn’t get much clearer than that. US elites
clearly felt that Russia’s foray into Venezuela’s oil
sector was a strategic calculation designed to
counteract US political and economic moves against
Russia. Moreover, it seems obvious that there is/was a
lack of faith on the part of segments of the ruling
class that the Trump Administration would actively block
Russia’s geostrategic maneuvers effectively, hence the
need for a “private sector” solution.</p>
<p>And yet here we are, less than 12 months after the news
of this potential strategy broke, and the Trump
Administration is doing precisely what the ruling class
demanded, namely targeting Venezuela’s economy,
specifically the oil sector. As the <a
href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm594">recent
move</a> by the US Treasury makes clear, the US will
use Venezuelan oil revenues as part of a hostage-taking
strategy designed to force regime change which would
make moot the question of Russian power in Venezuela as
the new government would be, for all intents and
purposes, a US puppet regime.</p>
<p>One can almost hear the shrill cries of Trump’s
apologists on left and right who will cry in the night
about the Deep State forcing Trump to do this, that he
has no choice as it is the will of the ruling class
which has weakened him with the Russiagate hoax.</p>
<p>But, leaving aside the unbearable blitheness of being
MAGA-adjacent, the reality is that Trump has warmongered
against Venezuela since well before the recent
escalation, including in an infamous 2017 meeting at
which ExxonMobil’s State Department CEO Rex Tillerson
and former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster both
were “stunned” at the stupidity of Trump’s expressed
desire to invade Venezuela. According to the <a
href="https://www.apnews.com/a3309c4990ac4581834d4a654f7746ef">Associated
Press</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Trump alarmed friends and foes alike with talk of a
“military option” to remove Maduro from power. The
public remarks were initially dismissed in U.S. policy
circles …But shortly afterward, he raised the issue
with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, according
to [a] U.S. official. Two high-ranking Colombian
officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid
antagonizing Trump confirmed the report.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So, it seems Trump never needed any help getting to the
war criminal perspective on Venezuela. In fact, it could
be said that, ironically enough, it was an oil man and a
Pentagon man who tried to talk him out of it. So much
for the Deep State. Instead, it was simply that Trump
needed the right kind of crazies around him to indulge
his imperialist insanity; he has them now with a
messianic Secretary of State in Pompeo and the
aforementioned National Security Warlock Bolton.</p>
<p><b>Imperialism a la Carte</b></p>
<p>I’ve tried to highlight the more nuanced analysis of
the energy issue, and how it ties to broader
geopolitical questions so that, hopefully, leftists can
see the full picture of the political context, rather
than a one-dimensional, reductionist one. However, it
must be said that oil is not the only issue requiring
careful analysis.</p>
<p>There is also the question of mineral extraction, and
there too Russia figures centrally. In late 2018,
President Maduro, desperate to get additional financing
amid crippling sanctions, announced that Venezuela had
offered Russian mining companies access to gold mining
operations in the country. While the Kremlin’s media
platforms like RT and Sputnik did their usual <a
href="https://sputniknews.com/business/201812261071014137-russia-participation-Venezuela/">spin</a>,
presenting this as simply mutually beneficial, friendly,
and downright altruistic policy from Putin, the reality
is that Russia sees in Venezuela much the same as what
US interests see: a cash cow on its knees, easily
controlled and exploited.</p>
<p>And of course, in addition to gold, there are plenty of
other mining prizes to be had in Venezuela including
nickel, diamonds, iron ore, aluminum, bauxite, natural
gas, etc. Both Russia and China have a significant
interest in all these minerals, and projects necessary
to exploit them.</p>
<p>Washington is not necessarily most concerned with
Russian and Chinese billionaires enriching themselves in
Venezuela, though it is undoubtedly irksome.</p>
<p>Rather, the strategic planners inside the Beltway see
in Venezuela today an opportunity to strike a death blow
to socialism and anti-imperialist politics in Latin
America. While they shed crocodile tears over elections,
democracy, and corruption, the reality is that the
vultures of Empire are circling around what they feel is
a carcass to be stripped clean. No more Bolivarian
Revolution means not even the pretense of, let alone
substantive movement for, regional integration.</p>
<p>With Chavez gone, and Venezuelan people hurting and
desperate, people like war criminal and newly appointed
envoy to Venezuela, Elliott Abrams, see an opportunity
to win a major victory in their endless fight against
socialism on the one hand, and petro-capitalist Russia
on the other hand. And if they can stick it to China in
the process, depriving it of a significant export market
and diplomatic foothold in the Western Hemisphere, all
the better.</p>
<p>Ultimately, what we’re witnessing is the classic Monroe
Doctrine policy from the US, albeit under 21<sup>st</sup>
Century conditions. With a consolidated right-wing front
already in place under Duque (and his puppet-master
former President Alvaro Uribe) in Colombia, Macri in
Argentina, and Bolsonaro in Brazil, Washington sees
Venezuela as perhaps the last domino to fall in South
America (Bolivia notwithstanding). And with its demise,
the region will be America’s backyard once more.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the Empire, <a
href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/18/venezuela-a-revolution-that-will-not-die/">I’ve
seen the Bolivarian Revolution with my own eyes</a>,
seen the commitment of poor and working-class people to
the ideals of Chavez’s vision and of socialism from the
ground up. These people, in their millions, are not
simply going to watch as the US takes everything they’ve
bled for these last twenty years. They’re not going to
sit idle and play the victim.</p>
<p>If Trump thinks he will take Venezuela without a bloody
fight, he’s even dumber than we thought.</p>
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