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        size="-2"><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176331/tomgram%3A_alfred_mccoy%2C_the_global_war_of_2030/">http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176331/tomgram%3A_alfred_mccoy%2C_the_global_war_of_2030/</a></font><span
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          World War III With China</strong> </span><br>
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              <blockquote>
                <p><span style="font-size: medium;"><strong>How It Might
                      Actually Be Fought</strong> </span><br>
                  By <a
                    href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/authors/alfredmccoy"
                    target="_blank">Alfred W. McCoy</a></p>
                <p>[<em>This piece has been adapted and expanded from
                    Alfred W. McCoy’s new book, </em><a
href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/1608467732/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20"
                    target="_blank">In the Shadows of the American
                    Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power</a>.]</p>
                <p>For the past 50 years, American leaders have been
                  supremely confident that they could suffer military
                  setbacks in places like Cuba or Vietnam without having
                  their system of global hegemony, backed by the world’s
                  wealthiest economy and finest military, affected. The
                  country was, after all, the planet’s “indispensible
                  nation,” as Secretary of State Madeleine Albright <a
href="https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Madeleine_Albright" target="_blank">proclaimed</a>
                  in 1998 (and other presidents and politicians have
                  insisted ever since). The U.S. enjoyed a greater
                  “disparity of power” over its would-be rivals than any
                  empire ever, Yale historian Paul Kennedy <a
href="https://ratical.org/ratville/JFK/JohnJudge/linkscopy/EagleLand.html"
                    target="_blank">announced</a> in 2002. Certainly, it
                  would remain “the sole superpower for decades to
                  come,” <em>Foreign Affairs</em> magazine <a
href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-04-13/once-and-future-superpower"
                    target="_blank">assured</a> us just last year.
                  During the 2016 campaign, candidate Donald Trump <a
href="http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/08/18/trump-albany-rally-winning-sot.cnn"
                    target="_blank">promised</a> his supporters that
                  “we’re gonna win with military... we are gonna win so
                  much you may even get tired of winning.” In August,
                  while announcing his decision to send more troops to
                  Afghanistan, Trump <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/21/world/asia/trump-speech-afghanistan.html?mcubz=0"
                    target="_blank">reassured</a> the nation: “In every
                  generation, we have faced down evil, and we have
                  always prevailed.” In this fast-changing world, only
                  one thing was certain: when it really counted, the
                  United States could never lose.<br>
                </p>
                <p>No longer.
                </p>
              </blockquote>
              <p>The Trump White House may still be basking in the glow
                of America’s global supremacy but, just across the
                Potomac, the Pentagon has formed a more realistic view
                of its fading military superiority. In June, the Defense
                Department issued a <a
                  href="https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pdffiles/PUB1358.pdf"
                  target="_blank">major report</a> titled on <em>Risk
                  Assessment in a Post-Primacy World</em>, finding that
                the U.S. military “no longer enjoys an unassailable
                position versus state competitors,” and “it no longer
                can... automatically generate consistent and sustained
                local military superiority at range.” This sober
                assessment led the Pentagon’s top strategists to “the
                jarring realization that ‘we can lose.’” Increasingly,
                Pentagon planners find, the “self-image of a matchless
                global leader” provides a “flawed foun­dation for
                forward-looking defense strategy... under post-primacy
                conditions.” This Pentagon report also warned that, like
                Russia, China is “engaged in a deliberate program to
                demonstrate the limits of U.S. authority”; hence,
                Beijing’s bid for “Pacific primacy” and its “campaign to
                expand its control over the South China Sea.”</p>
              <p><strong>China’s Challenge</strong></p>
              <p>Indeed, military tensions between the two countries
                have been rising in the western Pacific since the summer
                of 2010. Just as Washington once used its wartime
                alliance with Great Britain to appropriate much of that
                fading empire’s global power after World War II, so
                Beijing began using profits from its export trade with
                the U.S. to fund a military challenge to its dominion
                over the waterways of Asia and the Pacific.</p>
              <p>Some telltale numbers suggest the nature of the future
                great power competition between Washington and Beijing
                that could determine the course of the twenty-first
                century. In April 2015, for instance, the Department of
                Agriculture <a
href="http://watchingamerica.com/WA/2015/04/28/us-projections-for-the-2030-world-economy-ranking/"
                  target="_blank">reported</a> that the U.S. economy
                would grow by nearly 50% over the next 15 years, while
                China’s would expand by 300%, equaling or surpassing
                America’s around 2030.</p>
              <p>Similarly, in the critical race for worldwide patents,
                American leadership in technological innovation is
                clearly on the wane. In 2008, the United States still
                held the number two spot behind Japan in patent
                applications with 232,000. China was, however, <a
href="http://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/intproperty/941/wipo_pub_941_2010.pdf"
                  target="_blank">closing</a> in fast at 195,000, thanks
                to a blistering 400% increase since 2000. By 2014, China
                actually took the <a
                  href="http://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo_pub_941_2015.pdf"
                  target="_blank">lead</a> in this critical category
                with 801,000 patents, nearly half the world’s total,
                compared to just 285,000 for the Americans.</p>
              <p>With supercomputing now critical for everything from
                code breaking to consumer products, China’s Defense
                Ministry <a
                  href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/technology/28compute.html"
                  target="_blank">outpaced</a> the Pentagon for the
                first time in 2010, launching the world’s fastest
                supercomputer, the Tianhe-1A. For the next six years,
                Beijing produced the fastest machine and last year
                finally <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/technology/china-tops-list-of-fastest-computers-again.html?_r=0"
                  target="_blank">won</a> in a way that couldn’t be more
                crucial: with a supercomputer that had microprocessor
                chips made in China. By then, it also had the most
                supercomputers with 167 compared to 165 for the United
                States and only 29 for Japan.</p>
              <p>Over the longer term, the American education system,
                that critical source of future scientists and
                innovators, has been falling behind its competitors. In
                2012, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
                Development tested half a million 15-year-olds
                worldwide. Those in Shanghai <a
                  href="http://www.oecd.org/pisa/keyfindings/PISA-2012-results-US.pdf"
                  target="_blank">came in first</a> in math and science,
                while those in Massachusetts, “a strong-performing U.S.
                state,” placed 20th in science and 27th in math. By
                2015, America’s standing had <a
href="http://www.businessinsider.com/pisa-worldwide-ranking-of-math-science-reading-skills-2016-12"
                  target="_blank">declined</a> to 25th in science and
                39th in math.</p>
              <p class="Default">But why, you might ask, should anybody
                care about a bunch of 15-year-olds with backpacks,
                braces, and attitude? Because by 2030, they will be the
                mid-career scientists and engineers determining whose
                computers survive a cyber attack, whose satellites evade
                a missile strike, and whose economy has the next best
                thing.</p>
              <p><strong>Rival Superpower Strategies</strong></p>
              <p>With its growing resources, Beijing has been laying
                claim to an arc of islands and waters from Korea to
                Indonesia long dominated by the U.S. Navy. In August
                2010, after Washington expressed a “national interest”
                in the South China Sea and conducted naval exercises
                there to reinforce the claim, Beijing’s <em>Global
                  Times</em> <a
href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2010/0817/China-and-the-US-battle-to-assert-presence-in-South-China-Sea"
                  target="_blank">responded</a> angrily that “the
                U.S.-China wrestling match over the South China Sea
                issue has raised the stakes in deciding who the real
                future ruler of the planet will be.”</p>
              <p>Four years later, Beijing escalated its territorial
                claims to these waters, <a
                  href="http://fas.org/blogs/security/2014/04/chinassbnfleet/"
                  target="_blank">building</a> a nuclear submarine
                facility on Hainan Island and <a
                  href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2014/newsspec_8701/index.html"
                  target="_blank">accelerating</a> its dredging of seven
                artificial atolls for military bases in the Spratly
                Islands. When the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The
                Hague <a
href="http://www.pcacases.com/pcadocs/PH-CN%20-%2020160712%20-%20Award.pdf"
                  target="_blank">ruled</a>, in 2016, that these atolls
                gave China no territorial claim to the surrounding seas,
                Beijing’s Foreign Ministry <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/world/asia/south-china-sea-hague-ruling-philippines.html?mcubz=0"
                  target="_blank">dismissed</a> the decision out of
                hand.</p>
              <p>To meet China’s challenge on the high seas, the
                Pentagon began <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/world/asia/south-china-sea-us-navy.html?mcubz=0"
                  target="_blank">sending</a> a succession of carrier
                groups on “freedom of navigation” cruises into the South
                China Sea. It also started shifting spare air and sea
                assets to a string of bases from Japan to Australia in a
                bid to strengthen its strategic position along the Asian
                littoral. Since the end of World War II, Washington has
                attempted to control the strategic Eurasian landmass
                from a network of NATO military bases in Europe and a
                chain of island bastions in the Pacific. Between the “<a
href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176007/tomgram%3A_alfred_mccoy,_washington%27s_great_game_and_why_it%27s_failing_/"
                  target="_blank">axial ends</a>” of this vast
                continent, Washington has, over the past 70 years, built
                successive layers of military power -- air and naval
                bases during the Cold War and more recently a string of
                60 drone bases stretching from Sicily to Guam.</p>
              <p>Simultaneously, however, China has conducted what the
                Pentagon in 2010 <a
href="https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2010_CMPR_Final.pdf"
                  target="_blank">called</a> “a comprehensive
                transformation of its military” meant to prepare the
                People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “for extended-range power
                projection.” With the world’s “most active land-based
                ballistic and cruise missile program,” Beijing can
                target “its nuclear forces throughout... most of the
                world, including the continental United States.”
                Meanwhile, accurate missiles now provide the PLA with
                the ability “to attack ships, including aircraft
                carriers, in the western Pacific Ocean.” In emerging
                military domains, China has begun to contest U.S.
                dominion over cyberspace and space, with plans to
                dominate “the information spectrum in all dimensions of
                the modern battlespace.”</p>
              <p>China’s army has by now developed a sophisticated
                cyberwarfare <a
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/technology/chinas-army-is-seen-as-tied-to-hacking-against-us.html?mcubz=0"
                  target="_blank">capacity</a> through its Unit 61398
                and allied contractors that “increasingly focus... on
                companies involved in the critical infrastructure of the
                United States -- its electrical power grid, gas lines,
                and waterworks.” After identifying that unit as
                responsible for a series of intellectual property
                thefts, Washington took the unprecedented step, in 2013,
                of filing criminal charges against five active-duty
                Chinese cyber officers.</p>
              <p>China has already made major technological advances
                that could prove decisive in any future war with
                Washington. Instead of competing across the board,
                Beijing, like many late adopters of technology, has
                strategically chosen key areas to pursue, particularly
                orbital satellites, which are a fulcrum for the
                effective weaponization of space. As early as 2012,
                China had already launched 14 satellites into “three
                kinds of orbits” with “more satellites in high orbits
                and... better anti-shielding capabilities than other
                systems.” Four years later, Beijing <a
href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-06/16/content_25732439.htm"
                  target="_blank">announced</a> that it was on track to
                “cover the whole globe with a constellation of 35
                satellites by 2020,” becoming second only to the United
                States when it comes to operational satellite systems.</p>
              <p>Playing catch-up, China has recently achieved a bold
                breakthrough in secure communications. In August 2016,
                three years after the Pentagon abandoned its own attempt
                at full-scale satellite security, Beijing <a
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/world/asia/china-quantum-satellite-mozi.html"
                  target="_blank">launched</a> the world’s first quantum
                satellite that transmits photons, believed to be
                “invulnerable to hacking,” rather than relying on more
                easily compromised radio waves. According to one
                scientific <a
href="http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-satellite-is-one-giant-step-for-the-quantum-internet-1.20329"
                  target="_blank">report</a>, this new technology will
                “create a super-secure communications network,
                potentially linking people anywhere.” China was
                reportedly planning to launch 20 of the satellites
                should the technology prove fully successful.</p>
              <p>To check China, Washington has been building a new
                digital defense network of advanced cyberwarfare
                capabilities and air-space robotics. Between 2010 and
                2012, the Pentagon extended drone operations into the
                exosphere, creating an arena for future warfare unlike
                anything that has gone before. As early as 2020, if all
                goes according to plan, the Pentagon will loft a <a
                  href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176324"
                  target="_blank">triple-tier shield</a> of unmanned
                drones reaching from the stratosphere to the exosphere,
                armed with agile missiles, linked by an expanded
                satellite system, and operated through robotic controls.</p>
              <p>Weighing this balance of forces, the RAND Corporation
                recently released a study, <em>War with China, </em><a
href="https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1100/RR1140/RAND_RR1140.synopsis.pdf"
                  target="_blank">predicting</a> that by 2025 “China
                will likely have more, better, and longer-range
                ballistic missiles and cruise missiles; advanced air
                defenses; latest generation aircraft; quieter
                submarines; more and better sensors; and the digital
                communications, processing power, and C2 [cyber
                security] necessary to operate an integrated kill
                chain.”</p>
              <p>In the event of all-out war, RAND suggested, the United
                States might suffer heavy losses to its carriers,
                submarines, missiles, and aircraft from Chinese
                strategic forces, while its computer systems and
                satellites would be degraded thanks to “improved Chinese
                cyberwar and ASAT [anti-satellite] capabilities.” Even
                though American forces would counterattack, their
                “growing vulnerability” means Washington’s victory would
                not be assured. In such a conflict, the think tank
                concluded, there might well be no “clear winner.”</p>
              <p>Make no mistake about the weight of those words. For
                the first time, a top strategic think-tank, closely
                aligned with the U.S. military and long famous for its
                influential strategic analyses, was seriously
                contemplating a major war with China that the United
                States would not win.</p>
              <p><strong>World War III: Scenario 2030</strong></p>
              <p>The technology of space and cyberwarfare is so new, so
                untested, that even the most outlandish scenarios
                currently concocted by strategic planners may soon be
                superseded by a reality still hard to conceive. In a
                2015 nuclear war <a
href="http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/air-force/2015/12/18/air-force-nuclear-war-game-tests-future-bomber-fleet/77515594/"
                  target="_blank">exercise</a>, the Air Force Wargaming
                Institute used sophisticated computer modeling to <a
href="http://tinyletter.com/lseligman/letters/lara-s-weekly-roundup-air-force-nuclear-war-game-tests-future-bomber-fleet"
                  target="_blank">imagine</a> “a 2030 scenario where the
                Air Force’s fleet of B-52s... upgraded with... improved
                standoff weapons” patrol the skies ready to strike.
                Simultaneously, “shiny new intercontinental ballistic
                missiles” stand by for launch. Then, in a bold tactical
                gambit, B-1 bombers with “full Integrated Battle Station
                (IBS) upgrade” slip through enemy defenses for a
                devastating nuclear strike.</p>
              <p>That scenario was no doubt useful for Air Force
                planners, but said little about the actual future of
                U.S. global power. Similarly, the RAND <em>War with
                  China</em> study only compared military capacities,
                without assessing the particular strategies either side
                might use to its advantage.</p>
              <p>I might not have access to the Wargaming Institute’s
                computer modeling or RAND’s renowned analytical
                resources, but I can at least carry their work one step
                further by imagining a future conflict with an
                unfavorable outcome for the United States. As the
                globe’s still-dominant power, Washington must spread its
                defenses across all military domains, making its
                strength, paradoxically, a source of potential weakness.
                As the challenger, China has the asymmetric advantage of
                identifying and exploiting a few strategic flaws in
                Washington’s otherwise overwhelming military
                superiority.</p>
              <p>For years, prominent Chinese defense intellectuals like
                <a
                  href="http://www.cas.fudan.edu.cn/viewprofile.en.php?id=66"
                  target="_blank">Shen Dingli</a> of Fudan University
                have rejected the idea of countering the U.S. with a big
                naval build-up and <a
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/31/AR2010123101858.html"
                  target="_blank">argued</a> instead for “cyberattacks,
                space weapons, lasers, pulses, and other directed-energy
                beams.” Instead of rushing to launch aircraft carriers
                that “will be burned” by lasers fired from space, China
                should, Shen argued, develop advanced weapons "to make
                other command systems fail to work." Although decades
                away from matching the full might of Washington’s global
                military, China could, through a combination of
                cyberwar, space warfare, and supercomputing, find ways
                to cripple U.S. military communications and thus blind
                its strategic forces. With that in mind, here’s one
                possible scenario for World War III:</p>
              <p>It’s 11:59 p.m. on Thanksgiving Thursday in 2030. For
                months, tensions have been mounting between Chinese and
                U.S. Navy patrols in the South China Sea. Washington’s
                attempts to use diplomacy to restrain China have proven
                an embarrassing failure among long-time allies -- with
                NATO crippled by years of diffident American support,
                Britain now a third-tier power, Japan functionally
                neutral, and other international leaders cool to
                Washington’s concerns after suffering its
                cyber-surveillance for so long. With the American
                economy diminished, Washington plays the last card in an
                increasingly weak hand, deploying six of its remaining
                eight carrier groups to the Western Pacific.</p>
              <p>Instead of intimidating China’s leaders, the move makes
                them more bellicose. Flying from air bases in the
                Spratly Islands, their jet fighters soon begin buzzing
                U.S. Navy ships in the South China Sea, while Chinese
                frigates play chicken with two of the aircraft carriers
                on patrol, crossing ever closer to their bows.</p>
              <p>Then tragedy strikes. At 4:00 a.m. on a foggy October
                night, the massive carrier USS <em>Gerald Ford</em>
                slices through aging Frigate-536 <em>Xuchang</em>,
                sinking the Chinese ship with its entire crew of 165.
                 Beijing demands an apology and reparations. When
                Washington refuses, China’s fury comes fast.</p>
              <p>At the stroke of midnight on Black Friday, as
                cyber-shoppers storm the portals of Best Buy for deep
                discounts on the latest consumer electronics from
                Bangladesh, Navy personnel staffing the <a
                  href="http://newatlas.com/sst-delivery/30063/"
                  target="_blank">Space Surveillance Telescope</a> at
                Exmouth, Western Australia, choke on their coffees as
                their panoramic screens of the southern sky suddenly
                blip to black. Thousands of miles away at the U.S.
                CyberCommand’s operations center in Texas, Air Force
                technicians detect malicious binaries that, though
                hacked anonymously into American weapons systems
                worldwide, show the distinctive <a
                  href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/06/science/06cyber.html?mcubz=0"
                  target="_blank">digital fingerprints</a> of China’s
                People’s Liberation Army.</p>
              <p>In what historians will later call the “Battle of
                Binaries,” CyberCom’s supercomputers launch their killer
                counter-codes. While a few of China’s provincial servers
                do lose routine administrative data, Beijing’s quantum
                satellite system, equipped with super-secure photon
                transmission, proves impervious to hacking. Meanwhile,
                an armada of bigger, faster supercomputers slaved to
                Shanghai’s cyberwarfare Unit 61398 blasts back with
                impenetrable logarithms of unprecedented subtlety and
                sophistication, slipping into the U.S. satellite system
                through its antiquated microwave signals.</p>
              <p>The first overt strike is one nobody at the Pentagon
                predicted. Flying at 60,000 feet above the South China
                Sea, several U.S. carrier-based MQ-25 Stingray <a
href="https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/us-navy-descoping-stealth-requirement-for-stingray-t-423039/"
                  target="_blank">drones</a>, infected by Chinese
                “malware,” suddenly fire all the pods beneath their
                enormous delta wingspans, sending dozens of lethal
                missiles plunging harmlessly into the ocean, effectively
                disarming those formidable weapons.</p>
              <p>Determined to fight fire with fire, the White House
                authorizes a retaliatory strike. Confident their
                satellite system is impenetrable, Air Force commanders
                in California transmit robotic codes to a flotilla of
                X-37B <a
href="http://www.space.com/32839-x37b-military-space-plane-one-year-mission-otv4.html"
                  target="_blank">space drones</a>, orbiting 250 miles
                above the Earth, to launch their Triple Terminator
                missiles at several of China’s communication satellites.
                There is zero response.</p>
              <p>In near panic, the Navy orders its Zumwalt-class
                destroyers to fire their RIM-174<strong> </strong><a
href="http://www.space.com/5006-navy-hits-satellite-heat-seeking-missile.html"
                  target="_blank">killer missiles</a> at seven Chinese
                satellites in nearby geostationary orbits. The launch
                codes suddenly prove inoperative.</p>
              <p>As Beijing’s viruses spread uncontrollably through the
                U.S. satellite architecture, the country’s second-rate
                supercomputers fail to crack the Chinese malware’s
                devilishly complex code. With stunning speed, GPS
                signals crucial to the navigation of American ships and
                aircraft worldwide are compromised.</p>
              <p>Across the Pacific, Navy deck officers scramble for
                their sextants, struggling to recall long-ago navigation
                classes at Annapolis. Steering by sun and stars, carrier
                squadrons abandon their stations off the China coast and
                steam for the safety of Hawaii.</p>
              <p>An angry American president orders a retaliatory strike
                on a secondary Chinese target, Longpo Naval Base on
                Hainan Island. Within minutes, the commander of Andersen
                Air Base on Guam launches a battery of super-secret X-51
                “Waverider” <a
href="http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/05/19/air-force-getting-closer-to-testing-hypersonic-weapon.html"
                  target="_blank">hypersonic missiles</a> that soar to
                70,000 feet and then streak across the Pacific at 4,000
                miles per hour -- far faster than any Chinese fighter or
                air-to-air missile. Inside the White House situation
                room the silence is stifling as everyone counts down the
                30 short minutes before the tactical nuclear warheads
                are to slam into Longpo’s hardened submarine pens,
                shutting down Chinese naval operations in the South
                China Sea. Midflight, the missiles suddenly nose-dive
                into the Pacific.</p>
              <p>In a bunker buried deep beneath Tiananmen Square,
                President Xi Jinping’s handpicked successor, Li Keqiang,
                even more nationalistic than his mentor, is outraged
                that Washington would attempt a tactical nuclear strike
                on Chinese soil. When China’s State Council wavers at
                the thought of open war, the president quotes the
                ancient strategist Sun Tzu: “Victorious warriors win
                first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to
                war first and then seek to win.” Amid applause and
                laughter, the vote is unanimous. War it is!</p>
              <p>Almost immediately, Beijing escalates from secret
                cyberattacks to overt acts. Dozens of China’s
                next-generation SC-19 missiles lift off for strikes on
                key American communications satellites, scoring a high
                ratio of kinetic kills on these hulking units. Suddenly,
                Washington loses secure communications with hundreds of
                military bases. U.S. fighter squadrons worldwide are
                grounded. Dozens of F-35 pilots already airborne are
                blinded as their helmet-mounted avionic displays go
                black, forcing them down to 10,000 feet for a clear view
                of the countryside. Without any electronic navigation,
                they must follow highways and landmarks back to base
                like bus drivers in the sky.</p>
              <p>Midflight on regular patrols around the Eurasian
                landmass, two-dozen RQ-180 surveillance drones suddenly
                become unresponsive to satellite-transmitted commands.
                They fly aimlessly toward the horizon, crashing when
                their fuel is exhausted. With surprising speed, the
                United States loses control of what its Air Force has
                long <a
                  href="http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/p023961.pdf"
                  target="_blank">called</a> the “ultimate high ground.”</p>
              <p>With intelligence flooding the Kremlin about crippled
                American capacity, Moscow, still a close Chinese ally,
                sends a dozen Severodvinsk-class nuclear submarines
                beyond the Arctic Circle bound for permanent,
                provocative patrols between New York and Newport News.
                Simultaneously, a half-dozen Grigorovich-class missile
                frigates from Russia’s Black Sea fleet, escorted by an
                undisclosed number of attack submarines, steam for the
                western Mediterranean to shadow the U.S. Sixth fleet.</p>
              <p>Within a matter of hours, Washington’s strategic grip
                on the axial ends of Eurasia -- the keystone to its
                global dominion for the past 85 years -- is broken. In
                quick succession, the building blocks in the fragile
                architecture of U.S. global power start to fall.</p>
              <p>Every weapon begets its own nemesis. Just as musketeers
                upended mounted knights, tanks smashed trench works, and
                dive bombers sank battleships, so China’s superior
                cybercapability had blinded America’s communication
                satellites that were the sinews of its once-formidable
                military apparatus, giving Beijing a stunning victory in
                this war of robotic militaries. Without a single combat
                casualty on either side, the superpower that had
                dominated the planet for nearly a century is defeated in
                World War III.</p>
              <p><em>Alfred W. McCoy, a </em><a
href="http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176324/tomgram%3A_alfred_mccoy%2C_how_the_pentagon_snatched_innovation_from_the_jaws_of_defeat/"
                  target="_blank">TomDispatch<em> regular</em></a><em>,
                  is the Harrington professor of history at the
                  University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is the author of
                  the now-classic book </em>The Politics of Heroin: CIA
                Complicity in the Global Drug Trade<em>, which probed
                  the conjuncture of illicit narcotics and covert
                  operations over 50 years, and the just-published </em><a
href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/1608467732/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20"
                  target="_blank">In the Shadows of the American
                  Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power</a><em>
                  (Dispatch Books) from which this piece is adapted.</em></p>
              <p><em>Follow </em>TomDispatch<em> on <a
                    href="https://twitter.com/TomDispatch"
                    target="_blank">Twitter</a> and join us on <a
                    href="http://www.facebook.com/tomdispatch"
                    target="_blank">Facebook</a>. Check out the newest
                  Dispatch Book, Alfred McCoy's </em><a
href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/1608467732/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20"
                  target="_blank">In the Shadows of the American
                  Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power</a><em>,
                  as well as John Dower's </em><a
href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/1608467236/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20"
                  target="_blank">The Violent American Century: War and
                  Terror Since World War II</a><em>, John Feffer's
                  dystopian novel </em><a
href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/1608467244/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20"
                  target="_blank">Splinterlands</a><em>, Nick Turse’s </em><a
href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1608466485/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20"
                  target="_blank">Next Time They’ll Come to Count the
                  Dead</a><em>, and Tom Engelhardt's </em><a
                  href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/1608463656/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20"
                  target="_blank">Shadow Government: Surveillance,
                  Secret Wars, and a Global Security State in a
                  Single-Superpower World</a><em>.</em></p>
              <p>Copyright 2017 Alfred W. McCoy</p>
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