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<h1 class="title">Venezuela’s Upcoming Double-Confrontation</h1>
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<p class="byline"> By <span class="author">Gregory Wilpert –
TeleSUR English </span>, <span class="date">January 14th
2016</span> </p>
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<p>Following the Venezuelan opposition’s recent electoral victory in
the Dec. 6 parliamentary elections, the opposition seems to be
more determined than ever to steer towards an outright
confrontation with the president. The goal is to destabilize the
government as much as possible, with the aim of achieving his
ouster before the end of the year.<br class="kix-line-break">
<br class="kix-line-break">
The new National Assembly president said that his aim is to have a
plan in place for president Maduro’s ouster within the first six
months of 2016. Ramos Allup furthered this confrontation Jan. 6,
when he swore in three opposition members as representatives,
whose election the Supreme Court had previously put on hold due to
electoral irregularities. On Monday, January 11, the Supreme Court
thus declared that the National Assembly president had acted in
defiance of the Court and that from now on all laws that the
National Assembly passes are null and void, since the assembly had
incorporated members into its body that should not be there.<br
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The political confrontation between the legislature and the
executive is thus programmed. The next conflict will be about the
amnesty law, by which the opposition intends to free all so-called
political prisoners, that is, all opposition figures who have been
involved in violent protest of one kind or another, many of whom
have been held responsible for deaths of innocent bystanders.
Ramos Allup already warned Maduro that if he and the Supreme Court
do not implement the amnesty law, he will begin removing ministers
from Maduro’s cabinet: “Whether or not he accepts [the amnesty
law] will not matter, to which we will say, ‘We do not accept his
naming of ministers.’”<br class="kix-line-break">
<br class="kix-line-break">
The options for the new opposition-dominated National Assembly to
get rid of Maduro are several. As mentioned above, it can remove
not only the ministers and the vice-president (though this could
lead to new National Assembly elections if the vice president is
removed three times in a row), remove the heads of other branches
of government, such as the Supreme Court, the attorney general, or
the National Electoral Council (with prior approval from either
the Supreme Court or the attorney general), amend or reform the
constitution (which then has to be submitted to a referendum), or
call for a constitutional assembly (followed by a referendum).<br
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Also, there is a lot of speculation that the opposition might try
to organize a recall referendum against Maduro, but doing so would
require the collection of 20 percent of registered voters’
signatures, which amounts over 3.8 million signatures. This latter
course is a difficult undertaking. In comparison, when the
opposition organized the recall referendum against president
Chávez in 2004, it had to collect only 2.5 million signatures
because the electorate was substantially smaller.<br
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<br class="kix-line-break">
Aside from the project to remove Maduro and to give amnesty to its
law-breaking supporters, the oppositional National Assembly also
plans to introduce a number of laws that could undermine the
Maduro presidency. A populist measure that the opposition has
wanted to pass for a long time is to give ownership titles to the
beneficiaries of the housing mission. Over the past five years the
government has constructed one million public homes, which it has
essentially leased to families in perpetuity, but without giving
them a title that can be bought and sold. The reasoning behind
this is to avoid the development of a speculative housing market
of homes built with public funds. The opposition is betting that
most public housing beneficiaries would prefer a saleable
ownership title, so that they can sell the home and thereby
possibly make a profit from it.<br class="kix-line-break">
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Another law that would probably get the president into trouble is
a rumored project to dollarize the economy. It is obvious to
everyone in Venezuela that the current economic situation of high
inflation, frequent shortages of basic goods, long lines at
supermarkets, and a massive black market for price-controlled
products, is not sustainable. One “solution” to these problems
that some opposition leaders have favored it to simply get rid of
the local currency, the bolivar, and base the entire economy on
dollars, just as Ecuador did in 2001. Aside from undermining the
country’s economic sovereignty, such a move would also almost
definitely mean major painful displacements for economy, leading
to increased inequality and unemployment. No doubt the opposition
would then try to blame Maduro for this, but it is possible of
course that they themselves would end up carrying a large part of
the blame, which is why the opposition will enter into this
project neither unambiguously nor unanimously.<br
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Other major projects on the opposition docket include the repeal
of a wide variety of progressive laws that were passed during the
Chavez and Maduro presidencies, beginning with the land reform,
re-privatization of key industries, and the dismantling of price
controls, among other things.<br class="kix-line-break">
<br class="kix-line-break">
Finally, the opposition has also announced that it will convoke
special investigation commissions. Among these are commissions to
investigate corruption within the executive and another to
investigate the credentials of newly appointed Supreme Court
judges. The investigation of the judges could lead to the removal
of several of these because the Supreme Court law allows for the
removal of judges who do not meet the fairly tough requirements
for appointment.<br class="kix-line-break">
<br class="kix-line-break">
On the Chavista side of the confrontation the options for
maneuvering are even tougher. Here the foremost issue for the
government is how to deal with the on-going economic crisis, which
is bound to get worse especially since the price of oil is
tumbling. While the price of an average Venezuelan barrel of oil
reached a high of US$55 per barrel in early 2015, the most recent
figures point to half that amount, at US$27 per barrel. Unless
this price recovers, this could be devastating for Venezuela,
especially since 95 percent of the country’s export earnings and
50 percent of its fiscal budget come from the sale of oil.<br
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The 50 percent collapse in the price of oil over the past eight
months, however, means a far larger collapse in revenues because a
large proportion of Venezuela’s oil is extra-heavy oil that is
expensive to extract, reaching a high of around US$20-$25 per
barrel, leaving relatively little to no profit at such low prices.
In other words, a 50 percent drop in the price of oil represents
a far larger than 50 percent drop in revenues for the state.<br
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Maduro recently named a new cabinet, reshuffling many positions,
but in the key position of vice president for the economic area,
Luis Salas, Maduro appointed someone considered to be a proponent
of the same policies as before, who says that price controls and
the currency control must be maintained and that the government’s
main weakness has been in the area of enforcement of existing
policies. In other words, even though the country is now waiting
for the announcement of a promised “economic emergency plan,” it
seems doubtful that this plan will signal a significant departure
from the economic policies so far.<br class="kix-line-break">
<br class="kix-line-break">
The drop in revenues, combined with an inflationary spiral that
the economic war of smuggling, hoarding, and speculation and that
the black market for dollars have inflicted on Venezuela, signal a
very difficult near-term future for Venezuela’s economy and
everyone in it. Some economists warn of possible hyperinflation
and of an inability to pay its foreign bills (balance of payments
crisis).<br class="kix-line-break">
<br class="kix-line-break">
In short, Venezuela is heading towards two confrontations
simultaneously, where each threatens to exacerbate the other: one
economic and the other political. What the prospects are for
overcoming these confrontations is impossible to predict at this
moment. Within the chavista social movements and the governing
party, the PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela), more and
more voices are calling on the government to organize a massive
consultation process with the grassroots, which is something that
Maduro has endorsed, but it remains an open question whether these
will happen in time and if it does, whether it will be able to
provide solutions that will allow the Bolivarian Revolution to
move forwards, despite the reinvigorated opposition in parliament.</p>
<div class="moz-signature">-- <br>
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