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<h1 class="title">You Don’t Need to be a Semiotics Expert to Decode
Leopoldo Lopez’s Latest Post</h1>
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<p class="byline"> By <span class="author">Rachael Boothroyd
Rojas </span>, <span class="date">November 12th 2015</span>
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<p>During the high profile trial of jailed rightwing politician
Leopoldo Lopez for the incitement of public violence, the constant
barrage of ridicule directed against Venezuela’s state
institutions in the mass media was almost impossible to ignore. </p>
<p>Hiding behind a veneer of neutrality, global news outlets
intimated through both omission and the power of suggestion that
the trial was merely a circus show, which responded to neither
logic or ethics, nor legal norms, but rather to the political
whims of the Chavista administration under the caudillo-like
control of President Nicolas Maduro.</p>
<p>In international reports, the proof against Lopez- a series of
public Tweets and Facebook posts in which he is charged with
having promoted public violence- was presented as absurd; purely
circumstantial, coincidental and even a matter of total
subjectivity. </p>
<p>These posts allegedly sent “subliminal” messages to his
supporters, they mocked. How could this possibly be a reliable way
to convict a man? How can “subliminal” messages even be proven in
a court of law when they are a matter of the subconscious
interpretation of another human being? It’s a farce, a laughing
matter even, they said, if it were not for the fact that the life
of an “innocent” Harvard educated lawyer hung tentatively in the
balance. </p>
<p>The reality is quite different, however, and as always context is
everything. </p>
<p>Beyond the conjectures of the international media, the entire
population of Venezuela saw how in 2014 Lopez, in the midst of the
targeted street persecution and violence which he encouraged,
called on his followers and supporters to refuse to recognise
state authorities, in a situation when civil rights were
guaranteed, and to implement their “popular will” (ironically the
name of his political party) by force.</p>
<p>They saw how Lopez co-opted the language of emancipatory popular
politics to carry out a rightwing populist attempt to physically
force the retreat of politics itself through oppressive means.
They saw how he said on national television that it would only
come to an end once the government was removed from power. There
was nothing subliminal about his intentions; this is terrorism by
any other name. </p>
<p>It is for this reason that Lopez’s conviction is not a source of
national public outcry in Venezuela, as it is elsewhere, and also
why there has been nothing resembling a mass protests in response
to his 13 year jail sentence.</p>
<p>Yet if there were some kind of warped dialectic between Lopez’s
public statements and action in the street, then the jailed
politician’s latest Facebook update is certainly cause for alarm,
especially to anyone familiar with the machinations of the
Venezuelan political opposition to which Lopez is openly
affiliated. </p>
<p>Now, just as last year, Lopez is continuing to call on his
followers to depose the current democratically-elected government,
oscillating between demands to do it constitutionally, or failing
that, by force. </p>
<p>On Monday November 10th, Lopez published a hand written four page
note on his Facebook page from prison (that’s right, in the gulags
of Venezuela, high-profile prisoners get access to Facebook and
Twitter) on the up and coming parliamentary elections of December
6th, when Venezuelans will choose their legislative
representatives in the National Assembly. </p>
<p>The message is revealing both in terms of opposition strategy and
the backdrop to these elections; which are perhaps the most
difficult electoral contest that Chavismo has had to face since
the death of Hugo Chavez in March 2013. </p>
<p>For Chavismo, maintaining a majority in the National Assembly is
absolutely vital. Without this majority, it will be impossible to
pass any progressive laws to effect the changes that are in many
cases being demanded by the population, or to take the necessary
steps to deal with the current economic crisis that is
strangulating the country. For the opposition, a majority win is a
critical opening to launch an onslaught against the Bolivarian
process. In this sense, 6D is not just a routine matter of filling
the legislative body with legislators of one particular stripe or
another.</p>
<p>Lopez is acutely aware of this scenario and he begins his
publication with “The Majority: To what end?”.</p>
<p>“Today, we Venezuelans are sure that a dictatorship governs
Venezuela, that is what we are up against. Our people know that
winning the National Assembly is a fundamental objective to
conquering democracy,” </p>
<p>“Today, the people that want change know that they are the
majority, but we have to prove that majority at the ballot
on December 6th, it’s necessary to go out and vote massively. And
then, more importantly, to defend those votes, peacefully, with
courage, firmness and organisation. We will not hesitate to defend
the popular will,” reads the statement. </p>
<p>The development of this contradictory dual narrative of labelling
the country a dictatorship whilst urging the population to vote en
masse undoubtedly has practical implications for the opposition,
which has little interest in making its arguments stand to logical
reason. </p>
<p>Through this discourse the opposition (which incidentally, has a
number of mayors, governors and legislators elected through the
same system as Chavista politicians) can simultaneously claim
victory if they gain a majority in the elections, whilst crying
fraud in the event of their defeat. </p>
<p>It is a time-tested method used by the opposition, which is still
hedging its bets on a win less than a month away from the
elections. This is revealing in itself. </p>
<p>Despite fifteen years of government, the death of the Bolivarian
revolution’s main political reference point, an economic crisis
and siege, as well as popular disenchantment with corruption and
inefficiency, an opposition win is by no means assured. The barrio
or shantytowns where the popular sectors reside are still in many
ways no go areas for an opposition which is still emblematic of a
privileged, colonial White elite. The natural punishment vote for
Chavismo, for sure, but unpopular nonetheless. </p>
<p>So what does hedging your bets look like when translated to a
political strategy? </p>
<p>According to Lopez, a majority win at the National Assembly would
mean “the weakening of the dictatorship” and the “new National
Assembly” would have the “historical responsibility of bringing
forth change… liberating Venezuela by changing the model”. </p>
<p>“With the same united spirit, our brethren at the (Roundtable of
Democratic) Unity have also agreed to have a profound discussion
on what mechanism to activate in order to achieve this political
change, whether that be (constitutional) amendment, resignation
(of the president), a recall or constitutional (referendum)… for
the beginning of 2016,” states Lopez clearly. </p>
<p>The prospective of a recall referendum has been on everyone’s
lips since current President Nicolas Maduro won the presidential
elections in 2013 by a narrow margin of 1.5%. Yet it is only Lopez
who has come out now and identified it so brazenly as an objective
of the opposition. </p>
<p>Should the opposition fail to gain a majority, however, then
their “activists” can take to the streets against the government,
legitimised by the fact that they are defending “the popular will”
that will have been violated by the same “corrupt institutions”
from which they would have gladly accepted a victory. </p>
<p>And if this doesn’t work; then who knows. But the opposition is
impatient. </p>
<p>“We cannot wait years, we cannot wait for the presidential
elections of 2019,” states Lopez. </p>
<p>It’s a sentence that is only ambiguous if it is separated from
the historical trajectory of anti-Chavismo, if it is isolated
within the ahistorical world and Westernised viewpoint of the
international media. Where the methods used by the opposition less
than fifteen years ago, including a military and US backed coup,
economic sabotage, an oil lockout, violent street campaigns and a
recall referendum, bear no reference to Lopez’s current demands. </p>
<p>To the rest of us: can there be any doubt that a constitutional
“coup,” similar to that enacted in Paraguay in 2012 against
leftist Fernando Lugo, is at the forefront of the opposition’s
mind? Can there be any doubt that Lopez supporters, in response to
this message, would “hesitate” to take to the streets again? Is it
really just a matter of speculation when “defending the popular
will” has already been established as a narrative to justify the
murder of 43 people and the months long siege of communities
across Venezuela? </p>
<p>I don’t think you need to be a semiotics expert to answer this
question. </p>
<p>This is what is at stake when Venezuelans head to the polls en
masse on December 6th. There is everything to play for: the
possibility of politics, no matter how difficult, or its forced
retreat. It’s not a matter of interpretation; Lopez’s posts say it
clearly.</p>
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