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<h2 class="visuallyhidden"><a itemprop="url"
href="http://citylimits.org/"><span itemprop="name"></span><span
class="tagline" itemprop="description"></span></a>Why
NYPD’s ‘Predictive Policing’ Should Scare You </h2>
</header>
<div id="main" class="row-fluid clearfix">
<div id="content" class="span8" role="main">
<article id="post-46358" class="hnews item post-46358 post
type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail
hentry category-city-views tag-policing
prominence-homepage-featured prominence-top-story"
itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Article">
<header>
<h5 class="byline"><span class="by-author"><span
class="by">By</span> <span class="author vcard"
itemprop="author"><a class="url fn n"
href="http://citylimits.org/author/josmar-trujillo/"
title="Read All Posts By Josmar Trujillo"
rel="author">Josmar Trujillo</a></span></span><span
class="sep"> | </span><time class="entry-date updated
dtstamp pubdate" datetime="2015-01-29T08:08:34+00:00">January
29, 2015</time></h5>
<p><small><small><b><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://citylimits.org/2015/01/29/why-nypds-predictive-policing-should-scare-you/">http://citylimits.org/2015/01/29/why-nypds-predictive-policing-should-scare-you/</a></b></small></small><br>
</p>
</header>
<div class="entry-content clearfix" itemprop="articleBody">
<div id="attachment_46362" class="wp-caption module image
aligncenter" style="max-width: 771px;">
<p class="wp-caption-text">Mayor Bill de Blasio,
Commissioner Bill Bratton and District Attorney Cyrus
Vance announce initiative to enhance NYPD mobile
communications. Thursday, October 23, 2014.</p>
</div>
<p>Emerging from weeks of mass demonstrations and the
killing of two cops, Mayor Bill de Blasio and NYPD
Commissioner Bill Bratton showcased city crime stats for
2014 this month to a room full of journalists eager to
prod the pair after a year of controversy. While touting
the low crime figures, Bratton also spoke to the future:</p>
<p>"2015 will be one of the most significant years in the
history of this organization. It will be the year of
technology, in which we literally will give to every
member of this department technology that would've been
unheard of even a few years ago."</p>
<p>While 2014 ended with historic protests and a political
soap opera involving police unions, Bratton reminded
everyone what he had been saying consistently during the
first year of his second stint at One Police Plaza: He
would be ushering the police department into a modern
era of policing—one based on "predictive policing."</p>
<p>While the mention of "predictive policing" might send
chills down the backs of civil libertarians, no one can
say they were blindsided. Bratton spoke very openly and
candidly about it in an interview with the <i>New York
Times</i> early last year. He also mentioned it to a
law enforcement audience last Spring while sitting
alongside military leaders on a panel discussing "21st
Century Leadership" at the 92nd street Y. It was there
that he reiterated his plans to get hi-tech tablets and
smartphones into the hands of every cop on the force and
into every squad car. </p>
<p>Rubber hit the road last October as Bratton, de Blasio
and Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance announced
that the tablets would be paid for by asset forfeiture
funds obtained by the City and the DA's office.</p>
<p>"Christmas has come early", Bratton declared. </p>
<p>Predictive policing has its roots in the work of
Bratton and Manhattan Institute fellow George Kelling.
Bratton, known widely as the champion of Broken Windows
policing (the focus on low-level crimes to prevent more
serious crime), also co-founded the COMPSTAT system at
the NYPD in the 90's. COMPSTAT became a
numbers-crunching performance tool that was widely
regarded as having revolutionized policing in New York,
and then abroad. Its focus on crime stats, combined with
the buffet-style policing approach that Broken Windows
promotes, led to the oft-reported (and always officially
denied) NYPD quota system. It also, by mapping crime
stats, allowed authorities to aggressively police
communities of color by saying they "put cops where the
crime is." These were the building blocks of a
decades-long obsession with prevention down at 1 Police
Plaza.</p>
<p>It was more recently, in an influential 2008 Oxford
University paper titled "Police Performance Management
in Practice: Taking COMPSTAT to the next level," that
Bratton's devotion to preventing crime through low-level
arrests made the leap towards prediction. Bratton, then
head of the LAPD, forecast "predictive methods to create
even more timely and successful intervention and crime
reduction initiatives."</p>
<p>"We will move from near real-time analysis to true
real-time analysis and then to a 'predictive policing’
posture wherein more accurate and reliable probability
modeling will be utilized to forecast potential crime
trends over an increasing time span."</p>
<p>But Bratton's role vis-a-vis predictive policing wasn't
just as a highly influential advocate. He had, in fact,
laid much of the groundwork in Los Angeles from the
moment he arrived. Shortly before his return as head of
the NYPD was to be announced, the <i>SF Weekly</i>
published a lengthy expose of a little-known California
technology firm called PredPol that shed some light:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Interest in predictive policing spiked nationally in
2009 as the National Institute of Justice, the
research and policy branch of the Department of
Justice, published a series of white papers and doled
out millions in grant money to seven police
departments to undertake the task.
</p>
<p>One of the grants went to the Los Angeles Police
Department in 2009. When LAPD applied for the grant
two years earlier, it was still under the leadership
of Bill Bratton, who had championed CompStat's
introduction while serving as NYPD commissioner from
1994 to 1996. Bratton wanted LAPD to be a
crime-fighting laboratory. He assigned then-Lt. Sean
Malinowski, a former Fulbright scholar who had studied
counterterrorism at the Egyptian National Police
Academy in Cairo, to be the lead investigator on
LAPD's predictive policing grant.
</p>
<p>Around the same time, researchers ... were using
grants from the Army, Air Force, and Navy to develop a
series of algorithms based on earthquake prediction to
forecast battlefield casualties and insurgent
activities in overseas war zones. Army Research Office
documents reveal that the work of anthropology
professor Jeffery Brantingham, math professor Andrea
Bertozzi, and math postdoc George Mohler was
repurposed from its initial application of tracking
insurgents and forecasting casualties in Iraq to
analyze and predict urban crime patterns. This
research would lead to the creation of PredPol.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In Los Angeles, LAPD Chief Charlie Beck, taking over
after Bratton left, expanded on the theme in a 2009
piece for <i>Police Chief</i> magazine titled
"Predictive Policing: What Can We Learn from Wal-Mart
and Amazon about Fighting Crime in a Recession?" Beck
explained that "intelligence-led policing" was largely a
result of 9/11: "Homeland security increasingly has
become hometown security." And, as the title suggested,
corporate America and law enforcement were melding their
work together towards this end like never before. Beck,
now working with PredPol, echoed Bratton's assertions in
that Oxford paper that "partnerships" with "business
communities" could create "models of performance
metrics" for police departments. Police leaders of large
urban police departments were now turning to the
corporate world for lessons on increased "efficiency and
effectiveness" by forecasting trends.</p>
<p>Perhaps no other police department was as ambitious
with predictive policing as Chicago's police department,
though. Chicago PD, recipient of over $2 million in NIJ
funding, had developed a "heat list" of 400 of the
city's "most dangerous" residents based on predictive
policing algorithms. One of the leaders of Chicago's
efforts was a professor and researcher who'd done this
sort of work "since the 1980s when he worked with the
U.S. military to recognize potential targets in the
battlefield." Like the UCLA researches did with the
LAPD, Chicago was bringing key technological aspects of
the war home.</p>
<p>Recently, they've come home to the city where COMPSTAT
was born. Last year in Harlem, the city's largest-ever
gang raid resulted in 103 indictments stemming from two
murders. The raid was buoyed by Operation Crew Cut, the
NYPD program where social media interactions play a
significant role in determining guilt and building cases
oftentimes by mere association. NYPD detectives and
intelligence analysts had monitored dozens of public
housing residents for years, including the collection of
more than a million Facebook posts, leading up to the
military-style raid. Not to be outdone, District
Attorney Vance played clean up in the sweeps by weaving
together complex conspiracy charges that forced dozens
of young men to plead to sentences up to 15 years for
things they had alleged to have conspired to do—and in
most cases had not actually yet done.</p>
<p>The raid framed the question that dogs predictive
policing: In an effort get out ahead of crime were we
locking people up for breaking the law—or for the future
dangers they posed? </p>
<p>During the official "Predictive Policing Symposiums"
hosted by the NIJ in 2009 and 2010, law enforcement bigs
exhorted the value of getting "buy-in" from
policymakers. They explained that predictive policing
wasn't something fundamentally new, rather that it would
enhance current practices. This is most likely true.
Cops who profile are in their own way predicting crime.
But if you're inclined to view profiling-based policing
as moving in the wrong direction, these technological
enhancements would seem to only grease the wheels of
profiling and police departments hellbent on ever lower
crime—at virtually any cost.</p>
<p>As Ingrid Burrington wrote after Bratton's return to
New York was announced, the legacy of Bratton and the
turn towards predictive policing is also "about data—how
governments think about data, how they use (and misuse)
data… The techno-utopic dream of using data to identify
crimes before they happen requires a tremendously low
opinion of human beings and an unrelenting faith in
algorithms." This criticism, of course, echoes the
national debate on data collection. But its being done
by local police will mean increased face-to-face
interactions between cops and the areas criminality is
being predicted in. This poses a set of risks beyond
mere privacy intrusions.</p>
<p>Predictably, social media would provide a growing
harvest of information for tech firms and police
departments looking towards the predictive era. <i>The
Economist</i> boasted that "Firms that once
specialized in helping executives measure how web users
feel about their brands now supply products that warn
police when civil unrest approaches ... Cops in
California admit to trawling social networks for early
warnings of wild parties. ECM Universe, an American
firm, offers software that crawls sites 'rife with
extremism' to identify people who deserve closer
attention."</p>
<p>It's hard to imagine a more Orwellian future for
high-poverty, high-crime communities than one in which
technology intensifies the criminal justice spotlight on
their neighborhoods. Funneling more cops and
surveillance into certain neighborhoods all but assures
that you'll find more crime there—especially the
low-level type via Broken Windows. Indeed, if by being
predictive police are looking to be prophetic, then it
may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Communities of color
are most familiar with a cycle in which cops
aggressively look for crime, arrest and document crime,
then set out to aggressively look for more crime in a
city with less and less crime. Technology, though, adds
in a new element wherein it normalizes aggressive,
racialized policing through a veneer of color-blind
efficiency. As people become data plots and probability
scores, law enforcement officials and politicians alike
can point and say technology is void of the racist,
profiling bias of humans.</p>
<p>As <i>Forbes</i> put it:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>"This combination of predictive tools that direct
officers into certain neighborhoods backed by an
increasing number of channels to surveil those who
live in areas predetermined to be criminal is not new,
but an extension of a pathology of law enforcement
that assumes a criminal pretext by its mere presence
in a community. It’s not predictive policing that
makes this phenomenon possible, but it takes it one
step further toward being totally irrefutable, secured
by computer objectivity that further distances people
from any direct power within the structures around
them."</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The stage seems to be set for this phenomenon in New
York. PredPol's website explains their technology can be
"accessed securely through computers or mobile devices
in the field." Those new NYPD tablets will not only
vacuum information, like fingerprints, into NYPD
databases; they'll also be linked to the NYPD's Domain
Awareness System (DAS), a joint project between the
police department and Microsoft that provides access to
3,000 surveillance cameras, license-plate readers and
untold amounts of crime stats and 911 call data.
Gunshot-detection sensors that are slated to blanket
communities of color for years to come have been
contracted to SpotShotter, a firm connected to
telecommunications giant Motorola. Bratton was a
shareholder and board member for both. Even police-worn
body cameras, ostensibly a reform, have the
full-throated support of Bratton because of their value
for surveillance—not accountability.</p>
<p>Perhaps most alarming, as law professor Andrew Guthrie
Ferguson has pointed out, is the potential for
predictive policing to "change the balance of suspicion"
in a way that could affect the Fourth Amendment's
protections and essentially lower the reasonable
suspicion bar in favor of the police. A computer
algorithm that could serve the role of the anonymous tip
in the eyes of the law could replace even the need for
an actual human tip or complaint as a justification for
a street stop. Entire neighborhoods fall under official,
tech-sanctioned suspicion.</p>
<p>While New York city activists and reformers have fought
for years the policies and ideas (Stop and Frisk, Broken
Windows) that were the footprints of Bratton's first
tenure, it's clear that any number of innovations going
back to the 90's still influence people's lives today.
Broken Windows has seen low-level crime arrests and
summonses skyrocket over the years and is still the
modus operandi of today. The fatal police interaction
that took Eric Garner's life last year is part of that
legacy. </p>
<p>Still, predictive policing may cast the longest shadow.
At 67 years old, Bratton didn't return to New York to
keep the seat warm. He's back on American policing's
biggest stage to steer the department towards a policing
era that could make Robocop and Minority Report seem
prophetic.</p>
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