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<div class="entry-date">January 27, 2014<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/27/chronicling-the-egyptian-counter-revolution/">http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/01/27/chronicling-the-egyptian-counter-revolution/</a><br>
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<div class="subheadlinestyle"><big><big><b>The Regime is Dead, Long
Live the Regime!</b></big></big></div>
<h1 class="article-title">Chronicling the Egyptian Counter-Revolution</h1>
<div class="mainauthorstyle">by MUSA al-GHARBI</div>
<div class="main-text"><big> </big>
<p><big><big>To be clear, the Egyptian military does not aspire towards
total control of the state, with all of the responsibilities entailed
thereby—what they want, what they have always wanted, is to be beyond
accountability to the civilian population, to have their budget immune
to external oversight or reduction, to reserve the right to intercede
as they deem necessary in the political affairs of the state without
any reciprocal checks by legislators, and to respond with impunity
against those whom they deem to be a threat to their social order.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>It was in the service of these ends that they deposed
Husni Mubarak: a maneuver designed to preserve, not change,<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/columns/article/the-ties-that-bind-obama-to-bush-run-across-the-middle-east_13823"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.yourmiddleeast.com']);"
target="_blank"> the status quo</a></span>. In the aftermath of their
first coup they<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.sismec.org/2012/06/15/a-soft-coup-and-a-small-ballot-box/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.sismec.org']);"
target="_blank"> unyieldingly struggled</a></span> to limit the
civilian government from exerting any meaningful control over critical
state institutions—efforts which were bolstered by other elements of
the “<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.sismec.org/2013/08/21/shallow-democracy-v-deep-state-an-archaeology-of-the-crisis-in-egypt/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.sismec.org']);"
target="_blank">deep state</a></span>” with complimentary vested
interests in perpetuating the existing order—culminating in a<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://fiatsophia.org/2013/08/04/an-archaeology-of-the-crisis-in-egypt/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://fiatsophia.org']);"
target="_blank"> second coup</a></span> against Egypt’s first
democratically-elected president less than a year into his term.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>It’s been a tumultuous affair, but it appears as though
the junta’s efforts have paid off.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Among the primary grievances of the protestors in Egypt
and across the MENA region was the corruption and overreach of the
military, police, and intelligence services. Nonetheless, Egypt’s new
draft constitution renders all of these institutions completely
unaccountable to the civilian populace or their elected representatives.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Not only does the constitution enshrine the<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://egyptelections.carnegieendowment.org/2011/12/15/the-specter-of-%E2%80%9Cprotected-democracy%E2%80%9D-in-egypt"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://egyptelections.carnegieendowment.org']);"
target="_blank"> al-Selmi communiqué</a></span> with regards to the
military, it also<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/12/04/egypt-s-draft-constitution-rewards-military-and-judiciary/gvc8"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://carnegieendowment.org']);"
target="_blank"> expands many of its key provisions</a></span> to the
police, judiciary, and religious authorities. It allows all of these
actors to substantially intervene in the civilian government while
preventing said government from interfering in these institutions. In
this vein, it establishes the indefinite power of the military to
arrest and try civilians while rendering not only the military, but
also the police, immune to civilian prosecution.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Of course, one of the key aspirations of the coalition who
rallied to overthrow Mursi was to establish Egypt as a secular
state—these protestors will find their aspirations dashed as well (<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://fiatsophia.org/2013/02/27/liberals-v-democrats-egypt/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://fiatsophia.org']);"
target="_blank">perhaps rightly so</a></span>):</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Sure, the draft does include provisions which prohibit the
participation of political parties “formed on the basis of religion”—an
article which will certainly be used as the legal pretext to <span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/08/2013817125725348916.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.aljazeera.com']);"
target="_blank">abolish the Freedom and Justice Party</a></span> and
any other political force with perceived organizational or ideological
ties to the Muslim Brotherhood; even in the absence of this legal
framework, the Brothers have been<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://fiatsophia.org/2013/08/04/an-archaeology-of-the-crisis-in-egypt/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://fiatsophia.org']);"
target="_blank"> persecuted relentlessly</a></span> since the coup
which removed Muhammad Mursi (contrary to the rhetoric, the Brotherhood
remains popular: after all, if few Egyptians supported them there would
be little need to exclude the Brothers from elections–they would fail
on their own. They are being banned, not because the people hate them,
but on the contrary, because so many continue to support them).</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>However, considering the vast sums of aid (<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21591213-junta-presents-new-constitution-could-it-be-any-more-baffling"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.economist.com']);"
target="_blank">already in excess of $16 billion</a></span>) being
poured into the country by Saudi Arabia in order to stave-off Egypt’s
imminent collapse (and therefore, an authentic revolution), we can
expect that the salafi al-Nour party will be mysteriously exempt from
this new provision. Clearly, this is their understanding as well, as
they have<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/05/us-egypt-politics-nour-idUSBRE9B40HH20131205"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.reuters.com']);"
target="_blank"> unequivocally endorsed</a></span> the draft
constitution, just as they<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/07/egypt-salafist-al-nour-party"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.theguardian.com']);"
target="_blank"> endorsed the coup</a></span>—shrewdly angling for<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/al-nour-salafis-muslim-brotherhood-june-30-egypt.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.al-monitor.com']);"
target="_blank"> greater influence</a></span> for themselves and their<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/07/saudi-arabia-glad-to-see-morsi-go.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.al-monitor.com']);"
target="_blank"> Saudi benefactors</a></span>. The army, for its part,
is trying to <span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2014/01/20/pharaoh-al-sisi-takes-control-in-egypt-obama-administration-sacrifices-security-human-rights-and-democracy/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.forbes.com']);"
target="_blank">lure the Islamists</a></span> to their side in a bid
to alienate the Brotherhood.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>That is, the laws are not about establishing Egypt as<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139605/robert-springborg/sisis-islamist-agenda-for-egypt?page=show"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.foreignaffairs.com']);"
target="_blank"> a secular state</a></span>—instead, they are designed
to exclude particular influential political forces from the public
sphere; consider:</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>The new military constitution also declares the sharia as
the foundation of all of Egypt’s law. While the language assigning the
responsibility of interpreting these laws to al-Azhar has been removed,
considering that al-Azhar is<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/11/07/egypt-s-al-azhar-steps-forward/gt0b"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://carnegieendowment.org']);"
target="_blank"> THE center for Islamic jurisprudence in Egypt</a></span>
(and for much of the Sunni world), this redaction is little more than
cosmetic. In fact, the religious authorities have played a central role
in<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/26/world/middleeast/egypt.html?_r=0"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.nytimes.com']);"
target="_blank"> legitimizing</a></span> the coup and subsequent
crackdown–as a reward, the new draft actually places al-Azhar’s
leadership beyond the sphere of civilian accountability as well and
permits only those imams<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/10/egypt-authorities-restrictions-mosque-activity.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.al-monitor.com']);"
target="_blank"> with credentials from al-Azhar</a></span> to preach,
granting them a virtual monopoly over Egypt’s primary religion. They
could never have dreamed of such influence under Mursi.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Simultaneously, the constitution restricts the right to
worship <i>exclusively</i> to the three Abrahamic religions: Judaism,
Christianity and Islam. Even some from among these religions may be
excluded on the basis that they are not “<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/13224/interior-ministry-reinstates-department-to-monitor"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.jadaliyya.com']);"
target="_blank">proper</a></span>” Muslims, Christians, etc.–in fact,
these efforts are already <span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/11/egypt-bans-55k-mosque-preachers-crackdown-islamist/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.washingtontimes.com']);"
target="_blank">well-underway</a></span>.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Of course, many Egyptians opposed the coup and have been<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=31454"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ikhwanweb.com']);"
target="_blank"> unyielding in their opposition</a></span>. Others
who supported the coup under the naïve assumption that the military
would step back and meaningfully empower a liberal, secular, civilian
government have come to see (perhaps, too late) that the SCAF<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.abc.net.au/religion/articles/2013/07/11/3800817.htm"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.abc.net.au']);"
target="_blank"> has never shared their values and aspirations</a></span>.
Most of the Egyptian public was<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecmeg.com%2F%3Fp%3D50"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.microsofttranslator.com']);"
target="_blank"> against the coup</a></span> at the time it was
carried out, and despite a temporary surge in popular support for the
military in the aftermath, most seem to be<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-26/most-egyptians-oppose-ouster-of-mursi-poll-shows.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://mobile.bloomberg.com']);"
target="_blank"> returning to their initial conviction</a></span> that
it was a mistake to depose Mursi.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Nonetheless, given the public’s<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/96c19b1e-dfe8-11e2-9de6-00144feab7de.html#axzz2mvPmnvGU"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ft.com']);"
target="_blank"> general fatigue</a></span> with social unrest, the
near-total lack of external oversight over the Egyptian government, and
the ruthless crackdown on dissent within Egypt—<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/1/14/egypt-constitution.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://america.aljazeera.com']);"
target="_blank">one way or another</a></span>, it was assured that the
referendum would pass with impressive numbers. And by this time next
year a new civilian government will likely be elected.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>The fact that these officials will have little control
over critical state institutions even as said institutions wield undue
influence over the government, that the social and economic injustices
which motivated the uprising will not only persist but will be written
into the state’s founding document, that the rights and freedoms the
protestors sought will not have been meaningfully achieved, that the<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://fiatsophia.org/2013/11/01/implications-of-americas-evitable-decline/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://fiatsophia.org']);"
target="_blank"> oft-maligned</a></span> influence of the United
States is being traded for a more ominous and far-reaching role for the
anti-democratic ”<span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://fiatsophia.org/2012/12/17/the-arab-springs-third-wave/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://fiatsophia.org']);"
target="_blank">Club of Kings</a></span>“—the new constitution
conveniently papers-over these concerns.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big><b>The Results Are In…</b></big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>The interim government has just announced that the <span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/africa/9310-egypts-military-installed-government-announces-98-approval-of-new-constitution"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.middleeastmonitor.com']);"
target="_blank">results</a></span> of the referendum: 38.6% of
eligible voters went to the polls, with 98% voting in favor of the
measure. We can set aside concerns that these sort of victory
margins (2% dissent opposed) evoke the “elections” which dictators
frequently hold to put up a façade of legitimacy, especially given the
total lack of external oversight over any part of the process and the
well-documented <span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/1/14/egypt-constitution.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://america.aljazeera.com']);"
target="_blank">suppression</a></span> of any campaigns opposing the
measure–there is another disturbing paradox which presents this from
being a “ringing endorsement” of the coup, namely the low voter turnout.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>When the ”Islamist” constitution was approved in a
referendum in which a <span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://fiatsophia.org/2013/02/27/liberals-v-democrats-egypt/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://fiatsophia.org']);"
target="_blank">similar portion</a></span> of the electorate (32.9%)
turned out to vote, the opposition decried the poll as illegitimate:
the overwhelming support by those who turned out to vote may not
reflect the will of the silent (2/3) majority who did not. Somehow
these concerns have mysteriously vanished now that the shoe is on the
other foot.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Of course, as I have argued <span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://fiatsophia.org/2013/06/20/rejoinder-to-a-tyranny-of-the-half-protests-democracy-and-the-ethos-of-pluralism-in-turkey/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://fiatsophia.org']);"
target="_blank">elsewhere</a></span>, it is impossible to infer much
from uncast ballots <i>precisely because they were not cast</i>. That
said, there seems to be greater <span style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://fiatsophia.org/2013/08/04/an-archaeology-of-the-crisis-in-egypt/"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://fiatsophia.org']);"
target="_blank">empirical support</a></span> to suggest that a
plurality of public opinion is likely against the draft, if one was
into those sorts of divinations.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big>Insofar as we take the numbers at their face value, the
one thing the results suggest (both the overwhelming support for the
measure among those who turned out, and the low overall turnout) is
that the Egyptian public remains deeply polarized–accordingly, it is
likely the referendum will exacerbate, rather than mitigate, the
political crisis in Egypt. Perhaps, then, it is fortunate that the new
constitution renders elections largely superfluous, henceforth. All
that is left is for Gen. al-Sisi to “<span
style="color: rgb(5, 99, 193);"><a
href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/10514821/General-Sisi-dreamed-he-would-rule-Egypt.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.telegraph.co.uk']);"
target="_blank">run</a></span>” for president, and the Egyptian
counterrevolution will be complete.</big></big></p>
<big><big></big></big>
<p><big><big><i><strong>Musa al-Gharbi</strong> is a Research Fellow
with the Southwest Initiative for the Study of Middle East Conflicts (</i><a
href="http://www.sismec.org/about"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.sismec.org']);"><i>SISMEC</i></a><i>).
He has a M.A. in philosophy from the University of Arizona. You can
follow him on Twitter @Musa_alGharbi.</i></big></big></p>
<big></big></div>
</font></font>
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