<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1">
</head>
<body bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000000">
<font><font size="-1">
<h1 class="article-title">The Election That Matters</h1>
<div class="mainauthorstyle">by GEORGE CICCARIELLO-MAHER<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/09/28/the-election-that-matters/">http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/09/28/the-election-that-matters/</a><br>
</div>
<div class="main-text">
<p>On October 7<sup>th</sup>, Venezuelans head to the polls for an
election that will determine not only the future of the country and its
Bolivarian Revolution, but that could also have powerful implications
for the anti-capitalist struggle in Latin America and beyond.</p>
<p><strong>A Tale of Two Elections</strong></p>
<p>In what is painted as a battle for the country’s future between two
opposing ideals, an incumbent often berated as a populist demagogue
faces off against a representative of the moneyed elite. The former, a
political outsider hated by the far right for his skin color; the
latter, a wealthy former state governor completely out-of-touch with
the plight of the working poor.</p>
<p>The election begins in a dead heat, but a series of public gaffes by
the conservative candidate as well as a general lack of charisma
consistently dog his campaign, leading him to increasingly desperate
measures. Just when it seemed things couldn’t get worse, a leaked
recording reveals the emptiness of his rhetoric of unity and empathy.</p>
<p>I’m not talking about the U.S. election, Mitt Romney, or his
now-notorious comments about the “47 percent.” I’m referring to the one
election this Fall that <em>really</em> matters, because it represents
the struggle for the future of the Americas: that of Hugo Chávez in
Venezuela.</p>
<p><strong>A Tale of Two Venezuelas</strong></p>
<p>The 1998 election of Hugo Chávez marked the entry of “the other
Venezuela” into the official political life of the nation. This
Venezuela, in the words of legendary folk singer Alí Primera, is the
“Venezuela of the poor, the Venezuela with no reason, no reason to
exist.” But exist it has for five decades or more, despite being
obscured by a series of oil booms and the hermetic exclusion of the
poor and dark-skinned from politics, high society, and the media.</p>
<p>This Venezuela did not appear publicly for the first time with
Chávez’s election, but instead existed subterraneously in a
multiplicity of movements, struggles, collectives, militias,
organizations, that emerged for all to see and none to deny in the
massive rebellions of February 1989 known as the Caracazo. This
spontaneously organized appearance of the Venezuelan <em>pueblo </em>then
led to the attempted coup by Chávez and others three years later, which
saw the future president imprisoned. The revolutionary grassroots, and
Chávez himself, were at a fork in the road: to run, or not to run, in
the elections. Chávez had previously rejected the possibility, but over
the course of the mid-1990s, his mind and the minds of millions of
others were changed, and the collective decision to attempt power by
the ballot instead of the bullet.</p>
<p>The tear in the continuum of history that appeared in 1989 and grew
in 1992 was blasted open in 1998, destroying the existing political
system and demanding something completely different, something that
would truly represent the other Venezuela. In this task, there have
been significant successes: the social welfare of the Venezuela people
has been dramatically improved through the Mission system and the
groundwork has been laid for a qualitative leap to a political system
that breaks firmly with the past. But the present remains heavy with
the residue of that past: in the corruption, the opportunism, and the
multitude of halfhearted revolutionaries that surround Chávez and
threaten to derail or reverse the process.</p>
<p>And not only that. When Chávez fell ill last year and disappeared
unannounced to Cuba, a long avoided conversation was forced upon this
other Venezuela. Where the very word “Chavismo without Chávez” had
previously marked one as a reactionary, everyone was now grappling,
albeit in hushed tones, with the question of this inevitability. When
the comedy of errors that is the Venezuelan opposition seemed to
finally unify behind a single candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski,
the stage seemed set for a competitive election of the kind not seen in
more than a decade: young against old, healthy against ill, the
appearance of novelty against 14 years in power.</p>
<p>But it was not to be.</p>
<p><strong>A Tale of Two Leaks</strong></p>
<p>The difficulties for Capriles were clear from the outset. The less
charismatic of two young symbols of the opposition, Capriles’ candidacy
was only ratified amid continuing doubts about Leopoldo López’s
eligibility to run due to corruption allegations. Capriles is the very
image of the Venezuelan elite: light-skinned, wealthy, and utterly out
of touch with the mass of Venezuelans, he even ran for Congress in 1998
under the green banner of the discredited Copei party, one wing of
Venezuela’s corrupt “partyocracy” that held power for decades. Despite
his youth, here was a man firmly of the past in a country where any
association with the “Fourth Republic” is a kiss of death. Moreover, as
mayor of the wealthy Caracas sector of Baruta during the brief 2002
coup against Chávez, Capriles came under suspicion for doing little to
stop an angry mob that attacked and besieged the Cuban Embassy as part
of a witch hunt for Chavista cabinet members.</p>
<p>Capriles needed desperately to shake this legacy, to cut any ties
with the past and chart a course for the future. But this is no easy
task when the past is neoliberal and the present socialist, and
Capriles and the opposition United Democratic Roundtable (MUD)
coalition have struggled for a platform in a country where state
intervention remains immensely popular. They have consistently insisted
that they would not dismantle the Mission system or engage in
large-scale privatization, but this has begged the question: what sets
Capriles apart from Chávez? Meanwhile, many have suspected that behind
the soft-pedaled rhetoric of social democracy, of Chavismo with a
younger and whiter face, there lurked the threat of reaction and of a
return to the disavowed past.</p>
<p>Two recent leaks have made it clear how justified this suspicion
was. First came the release of a secret agreement by opposition forces
on some basic aspects of their plan for government. Surprisingly, the <a
href="http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/7248"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://venezuelanalysis.com']);">document
was released</a> by an opposition politician and former governer of
Anzoátegui state, David de Lima, himself no friend of the Chavistas.
Whereas Capriles has argued that his government would pursue a “<a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/Noticias/TuVoto/Candidatos/Capriles-R--afirma-que-adoptara-el--modelo-brasile.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">Brazilian
model</a>” a la Lula (notably neglecting the latter’s support for
Chávez), <a
href="http://albaciudad.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MUD.-Lineamientos-para-el-Programa-de-Gobierno-de-Unidad-Nacional-23-Enero-2012.-Final-2-DEF-1.pdf"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','download','http://albaciudad.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MUD.-Lineamientos-para-el-Programa-de-Gobierno-de-Unidad-Nacional-23-Enero-2012.-Final-2-DEF-1.pdf']);">the
leaked MUD document</a> lacks even the trappings of social democracy,
and instead reveals plans for extensive reforms of a markedly
neoliberal stripe. The French sociologist Romain Migus has <a
href="http://albaciudad.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/libro_el_programa_de_la_mud.pdf"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','download','http://albaciudad.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/libro_el_programa_de_la_mud.pdf']);">published
a short book</a> analyzing the MUD program, which sums up the situation
best: these are “[neo]liberal wolves in progressive sheep’s clothing.”</p>
<p>While the <a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/tuvoto/noticiaselectorales/mud-desmiente-existencia-de-paquetazo.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">MUD
has denied any knowledge</a> of what they dismiss as a “fake” document,
even anti-Chávez politician William Ojeda has <a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/tuvoto/noticiaselectorales/video--william-ojeda-critica--paquetazo--de-la-mud.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">attacked
the “hidden agenda”</a> it contains (only to be promptly expelled from
his party). The Chavistas have gone on the offensive, tying the MUD to
the past in the most direct of ways be deeming the proposed reforms a
“paquetazo” (big package), a direct reference to the neoliberal reform
package that sparked the Caracazo, and which was imposed in similarly
backhanded fashion by Carlos Andrés Pérez. This was a master stroke,
and one that has struck the anti-Chavistas at their weakest point. In
an ill-conceived and visibly desperate attempt to displace the
controversy with humor, <a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/tuvoto/capriles-r--las-mujeres-saben-cual-es--el-paquetaz.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">Capriles
even suggested</a> that “the women know” what the real “big package” is.</p>
<p>More damning still was the second leak, which provided a visceral
reminder of how much of the past remains in the present. On September 13<sup>th</sup>,
<a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/presentan-video-que--vincula-a-oposicion-con-actos.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">a
video appeared of a conversation</a> between former Capriles aide Juan
Carlos Caldera apparently accepting a large pile of cash (reportedly
$9,300) in exchange for arranging a face-to-face meeting between a
wealthy businessman and Capriles. Caldera denied the charges, but was
quickly booted from the campaign in a failed attempt at damage control:
the memory of corruption past and the pained knowledge that it
continues even within the Chávez regime meant that Capriles would not
be spared the taint of suspicion. (The fact that the money allegedly
came from <a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/politica/-quien-es-wilmer-ruperti-.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">Wilmer
Ruperti</a>, an oil transport magnate with friendly relations to Chávez
seems odd at first glance, but less so once we consider that this would
not be the first time that Ruperti had orchestrated an undercover video
recording).</p>
<p>While opinion polls are notoriously politicized in Venezuela, the
most established opposition firm, Datanálisis, has consistently given
Chávez a margin of victory of between 13 and 16 percentage points. But
even Datanálisis has been fudging the presentation, if not the numbers,
to show a late rally for Capriles: on September 25<sup>th</sup> the
firm <a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/tuvoto/noticiaselectorales/datanalisis--chavez-supera-a-capriles-r--por-10-pu.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">released
a poll</a> showing Chávez with only a 10-point advantage, where the
prior week had seen nearly a <a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/tuvoto/datanalisis--encuesta-da-14-7-puntos-a-chavez-sobr.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">15-point
margin</a>. While head pollster and Capriles supporter Luis Vicente
León suggested this as proof of the “stellar” impact of the opposition
campaign, he failed to note that the most recently released data is
drawn from a poll that was <em>conducted earlier</em>, prior to these
scandalous revelations.</p>
<p><strong>A Tale of Two Plans</strong></p>
<p>Largely as a result of both leaks and the hemorrhaging of public
support they have prompted, the MUD coalition has begun to splinter.
Citing the leaked MUD government plan on which they were not consulted,
<a href="http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/7248"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://venezuelanalysis.com']);">four
smaller parties withdrew their support</a> from Capriles, joining David
de Lima and William Ojeda in the untenable in-between space between
Chavistas and their opposite. A few short days later, on September 17<sup>th</sup>,
one independent candidate withdrew from the race to throw his weight
behind Chávez and an open supporter of the opposition went nearly as
far. The first, Yoel Acosta Chirinos, <a
href="http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/7265"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://venezuelanalysis.com']);">declared
that</a> “My adversary is the right wing, and my historic ally is
Chavez. The important thing is that the government is maintained [in
power], and that more power goes to the people.” While Acosta had
admittedly been a Chávez supporter in the past, the constitutional
lawyer and firm anti-Chavista Hermann Escarra openly declared the MUD
platform unconstitutional, and a step backward toward “the most savage
capitalism.”</p>
<p>This splintering of Capriles’ coalition and frustration with the
electoral Plan A has yielded the threat of a perennial “Plan B.” Such
poor prospects yield nothing if not desperation among an elite so
imbued with the idea of its own divine right to rule that it will not
let trifles like “democracy” or “elections” stand in its way. After
briefly ousting Chávez in a quickly reversed 2002 coup, the Venezuelan
opposition struggled for years to shed the taint of <em>golpismo</em>,
of coup-mongering. In this sense, Chávez’s last re-election in 2006 was
historic: it was the first time that the majority of the opposition
recognized the results as fair and clean. But when they did so, it was
not out of some abstract faith in democracy, but political strategy,
and the question is how long will they fail before deciding that the
strategy of repeatedly losing elections is not working out for them.</p>
<p>We have seen more than whispers that a Plan B might be in the works
in recent weeks. On August 25<sup>th</sup>, a massive explosion at the
Amuay refinery (Venezuela’s largest) killed dozens, <a
href="http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/7214"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://venezuelanalysis.com']);">immediately
raising suspicions</a> that sabotage had been at play, since opposition
pollsters had previously suggested that only a “catastrophic” event
could prevent a Chávez victory.</p>
<p>More ominously still, a leading member of Vota Piedra, one of the
parties that recently withdrew support from Capriles, <a
href="http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/7271"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://venezuelanalysis.com']);">took
to the airwaves</a> to reject this decision. Ricardo Koesling, who some
have tied to the Cuban-American terrorist network led buy Luis Posada
Carriles from the 1970s to the present, and who allegedly participated
in the 2002 attack on the Cuban Embassy under Capriles’ watch, made it
clear that his days of political violence are far from over, and that:
“Capriles is going to be President, and we’ll use bullets, fists,
kicks, everything we’ve got, to force the Chavistas out.”</p>
<p>But such a direct strategy of tension has never worked out for the
anti-Chavistas, whose flailing attempts to gain power through force
have only hurt them on the political terrain when the majority sent
them packing. Either in recognition of this fact or as an open threat
lest they dare, <a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/tuvoto/candidatos/afiches-intimidatorios-pueblan-el-centro-de-caraca.aspx"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">posters
recently spotted</a> in Caracas from the hardcore Chavista Venezuelan
Popular Unity (UPV) party feature deceased radical leader Lina Ron
alongside the popular slogan: “With Chávez everything, without Chávez
bullets [<em>plomo</em>].”</p>
<p>More likely than direct acts of sabotage, however, is the constant
threat that the opposition will refuse to accept or recognize a Chávez
victory, and as in previous elections, the groundwork for this strategy
is already being laid. From opposition pollsters who suggest a clear
Capriles victory to then denounce the opposite, to <a
href="http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/movil/detallenota.aspx?idNota=106364"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve']);">suggestions
that electoral observers</a> near the Colombian border are preparing to
sow chaos, to a leaked email suggesting that opposition leader Julio
Borges is already preparing to cry fraud.</p>
<p>In this, the domestic Venezuelan opposition can count on working
hand-in-hand with both the U.S. government and media. The latter is <a
href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/05/venezuela-presidential-elections_n_1743842.html"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.huffingtonpost.com']);">already
replete with stories</a> about the undemocratic Chávez regime and the
impending electoral fraud, and the expelled former U.S. ambassador
Patrick Duddy <a href="http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/7259"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://venezuelanalysis.com']);">recently
outlined</a> a variety of possible alternatives for U.S. intervention
into the post-electoral scenario. Such view plainly contradict the
recent <a href="http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/7272"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://venezuelanalysis.com']);">conclusion
of the Carter Center</a> (confirmed by the Union of South American
Nations, UNASUR), that “of the 92 elections that we’ve monitored, I
would say the election process in Venezuela is <em>the best in the
world</em>.”</p>
<p><strong>A Tale of Two Paths</strong></p>
<p>Against those intransigent souls for whom elections can only be a
trap, the Venezuelan example should give some hesitation. Few could
have foreseen the collapse of the political system, the increasing
social polarization, and the eventual resort to more or less open class
combat that would be unleashed in part by Chávez’s election. Historical
ruptures open possibilities, but political leaders are more often than
not conditioned to make the wrong decision when it matters most. When
Obama was elected, he could have, in theory at least, placed his bets
on the poor, tacked hard to the left, and hoped to mobilize supporters
faster than his enemies. Instead he did the opposite: giving up any
radical pretensions from the get-go and charting a course of unabashed
neoliberalism at home and imperialism abroad.</p>
<p>Chávez provides an alternative possibility: elected as a moderate
and populist, he acted both on gut instincts and on the advice of those
radicals and movements that had cut their teeth in the struggle against
the old Fourth Republic. Before he had accomplished much, or even
intended to, the right struck back, and it was the interplay of the
“whip of the counter-revolution” and powerful revolutionary movements,
more than anything else, that radicalized the once-moderate Chávez. It
is this combative dialectic, one that has made the Venezuelan
revolution possible and yet one that is notably absent at the heart of
the empire, that is at stake on October 7<sup>th</sup>.</p>
<p><em><strong>George Ciccariello-Maher</strong> teaches political
theory from below at Drexel University in Philadelphia, and is the
author of <a
href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0822354527/counterpunchmaga"
onclick="javascript:_gaq.push(['_trackEvent','outbound-article','http://www.amazon.com']);">We
Created Chávez: A People’s History of the Venezuelan Revolution</a>,
forthcoming from Duke University Press. He can be reached at
gjcm(at)drexel.edu.</em></p>
</div>
</font></font>
<div class="moz-signature">-- <br>
Freedom Archives
522 Valencia Street
San Francisco, CA 94110
415 863.9977
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.freedomarchives.org">www.freedomarchives.org</a>
</div>
</body>
</html>