<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html>
<head>
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1">
</head>
<body bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000000">
<font size="3"><strong><big><big>The deadly Israeli and the mad Turk</big></big><br>
</strong></font>By Pepe Escobar <br>
<br>
8/14/2012<br>
<br>
The inmates are running - or think they are running - the asylum. <br>
<br>
As Asia Times Online already reported (See <a
href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NH08Ak02.html">Bomb
Iran fever</a>, Aug 8, 2012), Tel Aviv may be inches away from turning
the already declared economic war on Iran into a hot war. <br>
<br>
Take a look at this madness: [1] The Bibi-Barak warmongering duo (Prime
Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud<br>
<br>
<object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000"
id="DCF256040372" height="250" width="300"><embed
src="http://s0.2mdn.net/2942300/1040583_Mariju_NoSeal.swf"
flashvars="moviePath=http://s0.2mdn.net/2942300/&moviepath=http://s0.2mdn.net/2942300/&clickTag=http%3A//ad.doubleclick.net/click%253Bh%253Dv8/3cd0/17/6b/%252a/y%253B256040372%253B1-0%253B0%253B79688682%253B4307-300/250%253B48427157/48426910/1%253B%253B%257Esscs%253D%253fhttp%3A//asianmedia.com/GAAN/www/delivery/ck.php%3Foaparams%3D2__bannerid%3D1808__zoneid%3D36__cb%3D57d45e7776__oadest%3Dhttp%3A//careers.state.gov"
type="application/x-shockwave-flash" quality="high"
swliveconnect="true" wmode="opaque" name="DCF256040372"
base="http://s0.2mdn.net/2942300" allowscriptaccess="never"
height="250" width="300"></object>
<div id="beacon_57d45e7776"
style="position: absolute; left: 0px; top: 0px; visibility: hidden;"><img
src="cid:part1.07070707.00040306@freedomarchives.org" alt=""
style="width: 0px; height: 0px;" height="0" width="0"></div>
<br>
Barak) may be about to go for broke on an Iran strike - against the
advice of Israel's top defense and intelligence experts. <br>
<br>
Barak may even have had access to secret US intel. He said, "there
probably really is such an American intelligence report - I don't know
if it is an NIE [National Intelligence Estimate] one - making its way
around senior offices [in Washington]." <br>
<br>
"Probably?" "Really?" "I don't know?" And this forest of hypotheticals
is a justification for hot war? <br>
<br>
Then Barak added; "As far as we know it brings the American assessment
much closer to ours". <br>
<br>
Not really. Here's the response by a White House National Security
Council spokesman; the US intelligence assessment remains the same.
That is; Iran is not conducting a nuclear weapons program. <br>
<br>
And if any extra confirmation was needed, Washington seems to have a
pretty clear picture of Iran's nuclear progress. [2] <br>
<br>
According to White House spokesman Jay Carney, "We would know if and
when Iran made what's called a breakout move towards acquiring a
weapon." <br>
<br>
For lethal Bibi, that's obviously not enough. It doesn't matter that -
technically and logistically - Israel simply does not have what it
takes to conduct a successful strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. <br>
<br>
Take a look at this concise infographics. [3] For starters, Israel does
not have the latest generation MOP GBU-57A bunker buster bombs to hit
deep underground Iranian installations. It does not have the Northrop
Grumman's B-2 stealth bombers to deliver them. And it does not have
enough Lockheed Martin KC-130 aerial tankers (only 5; the US has 80)
for refueling its attacking F-15s and F-16s. <br>
<br>
There is no evidence the Obama administration will be authorizing the
Pentagon to supply all of the above to the Bibi-Barak duo anytime soon.
<br>
<br>
And let's introduce a little bit of sanity into this madness - courtesy
of good ol' Cold Warrior Yevgeny Primakov, former KGB supremo and
Russian foreign minister. Primakov tells it like it is; go ahead,
attack Iran; and then, inevitably, they will go for a bomb. [4] <br>
<br>
<b>Meanwhile, in Ankara…</b><br>
Is Turkey about to enter the 9th (Kurdish) circle of hell? <br>
<br>
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has just been to Turkey in a very
Libyan "We came, we saw, he died" mood; it's as if she was replaying
her Angel of Death role, presiding over the imminent demise of Syria's
Bashar al-Assad. <br>
<br>
Not so fast. The same applies to the State Department influencing
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Shakespearean decision
whether to "invade" or "not invade" Western/Syrian Kurdistan. <br>
<br>
The fact is the AKP party in Ankara won't ask the Turkish parliament
for it. They would simply invade Syrian Kurdistan - even with a bunch
of Turkish generals languishing in jail, accused of plotting a coup.
Three Turkish brigades, tanks and artillery are already only two
kilometers away from the Syrian border. <br>
<br>
Ankara has crossed into Iraqi Kurdistan dozens of times in hot pursuit
of PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) guerrillas. The plot thickens,
because at the same time Ankara has very close trade/diplomatic
relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG); in fact Ankara
is now pitted against the Nuri al-Maliki government in Baghdad, as it
began importing Kurdish oil directly, bypassing Iraq's central
government. <br>
<br>
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu went in person to Kirkuk and
Irbil to close the deal with Massoud Barzani, the president of the
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). <br>
<br>
In Pipelinestan terms, this is huge; Western Big Oil is absolutely
itching to get as much energy from Iraqi Kurdistan (as well as from
Azerbaijan) as humanly possible - thus bypassing Iran and Russia. <br>
<br>
A Turkish "invasion" of Syrian Kurdistan will not be too much of a
problem in terms of Turkish relations with those paragons of democracy
at the Gulf Cooperation Council; after all Qatar and the House of Saud
are working side by side with Turkey towards the total destabilization
of Syria. <br>
<br>
But the Assad regime will see this as a war on Syria - not only Syrian
Kurdistan; after all Turkey hosts not only the Syrian National Council
(SNC) but also thousands of Not Exactly Free Syrian Army (FSA) gangs,
Salafi-jihadis included. Turkey is their logistical base. <br>
<br>
And what happens if there's a flurry of bodybags shipped back to Ankara
and Istanbul? <br>
<br>
The Mad Turk Erdogan power-play may be unraveling. The Turkish army,
the commercial bourgeoisie, the secular bureaucracy, they are all
getting increasingly fed up with his Napoleonic dreams; hosting the
FSA, crammed with jihadis; smuggling weapons into Syria alongside Qatar
and the Saudis; deploying anti-aircraft batteries and even missiles on
the border; threatening to invade Syrian Kurdistan; that's a bit too
much. <br>
<br>
But then again, maybe not. Ankara's wishful thinking big picture - in a
neo-Ottoman vein - would certainly include some sort of economic
annexation of northern Iraq and northeast Syria; both happen to be
energy-rich - and Turkey badly needs the energy. The problem is they're
both inhabited mostly by Kurds. <br>
<br>
Even Iranian Kurds are already stirring. [5] What happens when 17
million Turkish Kurds also decide to step into the action? Erdogan may
be on his way to face Turkey's ultimate nightmare; the emergence of
Greater Kurdistan. <br>
<br>
Turkey shares borders with Iraq, Syria and Iran. The Kurds are
beginning to sense the historical shift. Rick Rozoff at Global Research
[6] correctly argues that "Turkey provides NATO - and through NATO the
Pentagon - direct access to those three nations." But this may go way
beyond "a new redivision of the Levant modeled after the Anglo-French
Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916". <br>
<br>
Neo-Ottoman Turkey, NATO and the Pentagon may be on the same page at
least for the moment. But a Balkanization of the Levant can only
advance the emergence of Greater Kurdistan. It may advance Washington's
strategic interests. But when Erdogan wakes up to the new reality - to
which his own policies have contributed - it may be too late. <br>
<br>
<i><b>Notes:</b></i> 1. <a
href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/decision-by-netanyahu-and-barak-to-strike-iran-is-almost-final-israeli-tv-says/">Decision
by Netanyahu, Barak to strike Iran is almost final - Israel TV</a>,
Times of Israel, Aug 13, 2012<br>
2. <a
href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/we-have-eyes-into-irans-nuclear-program-says-white-house/">We
would know if Iran had made ‘a breakout’ to the bomb, White House says</a>,
Times of Israel, Aug 13, 2012<br>
3. <a href="http://en.rian.ru/infographics/20120417/172878660.html">Likely
Scenarios for Israeli Attack Against Iran</a>, RIANOVOSTI, Aug 13, 2012<br>
4. <a href="http://en.rian.ru/world/20120808/175057044.html">Iran to
Make own WMD if Israel Delivers Airstrike - expert</a>, RIANOVOSTI, Aug
08, 2012<br>
5. <a
href="http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/08/12/231837.html">Kurds’
have the right to demand federal areas: Kurdish Iranian MP</a>, Al
Arabiya News, August 12, 2012 <br>
6. <a
href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=32268">Turkey:
NATO’s Neo-Ottoman Spearhead in the Middle East</a>, Global Research,
August 8, 2012<br>
<br>
<br>
<i><b>Pepe Escobar</b> is the author of</i> <a
href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0978813820/simpleproduction/ref=nosim">Globalistan:
How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War</a> (Nimble
Books, 2007) and <a
href="http://www.amazon.com/Red-Zone-Blues-snapshot-Baghdad/dp/0978813898">Red
Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge</a>. His most recent
book is <a
href="http://www.amazon.com/Obama-Does-Globalistan-Pepe-Escobar/dp/1934840831/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1233698286&sr=8-1">Obama
does Globalistan</a> (Nimble Books, 2009). <br>
<br>
<i>He may be reached at</i> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:pepeasia@yahoo.com">pepeasia@yahoo.com</a>
<div class="moz-signature">-- <br>
Freedom Archives
522 Valencia Street
San Francisco, CA 94110
415 863.9977
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="http://www.freedomarchives.org">www.freedomarchives.org</a>
</div>
</body>
</html>