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<h1><font size=4><b>WHAT NOW FOR LEBANON? – BY DR. FRANKLIN
LAMB</b></font></h1>
<img src="http://www.intifada-palestine.com/wp-content/themes/headlines/images/ico-time.png" width=14 height=14 alt="[]">
</b></h1><font size=3>17. Jan, 2011<br><br>
<b>Dr. Franklin Lamb
</b>
-<a href="http://almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=170378&language=en">
Al-Manar TV</a><br>
<a href="http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2011/01/what-now-for-lebanon-by-dr-franklin-lamb/" eudora="autourl">
http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2011/01/what-now-for-lebanon-by-dr-franklin-lamb/<br>
<br>
</a>South Beirut Informed Congressional sources in Washington DC
today<br>
are confirming that the White House has informed Congressional
Committee<br>
Chairpersons and American allies that the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon<br>
(STL) will indict Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s <i>Wali
al<br>
Faqui</i> (jurisconsult or Supreme Religious Leader) for issuing the
order to<br>
assassinate Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The US and Israel
believe<br>
Iran’s motive was that PM Hariri was considered a serious threat to
Tehran<br>
and Damascus because their intelligence agencies established that Hariri
was<br>
conspiratorially linked to Saudi Arabia, France and the United
States–and<br>
by extension, Israel.<br><br>
One could be forgiven for getting confused by the “its Syria!, no its not
its<br>
Hezbollah!, ohmygod it’s really Iran!” labyrinth in the Hariri
assassination<br>
saga this past half decade. Late this week key Congressional leaders
have<br>
been advised by the White House that the execution order targeting
Hariri<br>
was delivered by Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds force chief
Qassem<br>
Suleymani to Hezbollah’s military commander Imad Mughniyeh. The US,<br>
Israel and their allies intend to back with an international media
campaign,<br>
the STL theory that Mughniyeh and his brother-in-law, Mustapha Badr<br>
al-Dine met on several occasions and handpicked the team that carried
out<br>
the assassination. Moreover, that Syrian President Bashar al-Aassad,<br>
and his brother-in-law, Syrian intelligence chief Assef Shawkat, also
played<br>
key roles in organizing Hariri’s assassination. The US government
expects<br>
that each of these named individuals, including several Hezbollah
leaders,<br>
will be indicted and convicted, almost certainly in absentia.<br><br>
Within the coming weeks the US Congressional lobby is expected to
initiate<br>
in the House and Senate a total cut off of American aid to Lebanon
unless<br>
resigned Prime Minister Hariri is immediately returned to office. This
aid<br>
cutoff will be vociferously demanded by AIPAC despite statements to
the<br>
contrary by American Ambassador Maury Connelly in Beirut earlier
today.<br>
Ambassador Connelly spoke to reporters following a meeting with
Hezbollah<br>
ally General Michel Aoun, leader of the Change and Reform
parliamentary<br>
bloc (FPM) at his residence in Rabieh. It was a rare visit indeed by
an<br>
American Ambassador with Aoun, a gentleman who the US Embassy has<br>
privately labeled “megalomaniac”. The visit by the US Ambassador
reflected<br>
Aoun’s newly enhanced political status this weekend. Ms. Connelly
assured<br>
the media gathering that “the United States remains steadfast in its
support<br>
for Lebanon’s state institutions through our robust military, security,
and<br>
economic development assistance. We expect a new government will
emerge<br>
through constitutional procedures, and our strong partnership with
Lebanon<br>
will obviously endure.”<br><br>
Few in Lebanon, or the region for that matter, give much credence to
the<br>
Ambassador’s statement, particularly as Hezbollah is now the de facto
new<br>
majority and can administer the government as its wants should it
choose.<br>
The Lebanese Parliamentary lineup is probably, as of today, 64 seats for
the<br>
US-Saudi team and 64 seats for the Lebanese National Resistance.
Moreover,<br>
the momentum favors Hezbollah since it picked up support from Walid<br>
Jumblatt’s five member Progressive Socialist Party Parliamentary bloc,
after<br>
Jumblatt broke with Washington in 2008 (Walid delayed announcing his<br>
switch until 2009 just in case Washington wanted to make amends
which<br>
apparently they did not). What caused Jumblatt to bolt from March 14
was<br>
his friend Jeffrey Feltman’s failure to deliver on promised support
for<br>
Jumblatt’s very risky May 2008 political challenge to Hezbollah.
Feltman<br>
pledged “all the help you need Walid. You can take it to the bank.”
Jumblatt<br>
has stated publicly that he felt “stiffed” by the Americans but he still
likes<br>
Jeffrey personally, if not politically.<br><br>
The White House has made it plain that America expects Saad Hariri to
be<br>
returned to his Prime Ministerial post. That event is unlikely to
occur.<br>
Yet, the Hezbollah led opposition might allow Hariri to be a caretaker
until<br>
the 2013 electionsbut only if he fulfills their earlier demands and<br>
withdraws Lebanon from any association with the STL. The Obama<br>
administration has informed Congress that it would view a
Hezbollah-led<br>
coalition assuming power in Lebanon as a direct threat to its
strategic<br>
interests in the region and would likely, at a minimum, respond with
an<br>
intense destabilization campaign. Frankly, there is little the Obama<br>
Administration can do that it has not tried before to squeeze Lebanon and
it<br>
has little influence over events here partly due to the facts that the US
is<br>
way overstretched in the region and is barely taken seriously in
Iraq,<br>
Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Levant
countries<br>
these days.<br><br>
Moreover, President Obama is said by one Congressional source to
believe<br>
that Hezbollah is not interested in the hands on, “Jimmy Carter” style
of<br>
governing for Lebanon or being involved in dealing with every detail
of<br>
Lebanon’s very complicated sectarian system. The White House is said
to<br>
expect Hezbollah to play a major role in forming the next government
and<br>
some State Department staffers believe that it may even play a
constructive<br>
role in shaping a policy statement that will govern the day to day
running<br>
of the government. Few but the Israel lobby in Washington believe, or
even<br>
mention, the idea that Hezbollah has any interest in an Islamic
Republic<br>
system for Lebanon, repeatedly disavowed by Hezbollah officials
including<br>
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah is expected to
increase<br>
its focus on Israel and continue to apply its skills and manpower to
build a<br>
regional deterrence to Israeli aggression while working for domestic<br>
tranquility and stability. “In short, as one Congressional staffer via
email,<br>
“Washington is not panicked by events in Lebanon at this time. We
have<br>
bigger problems in the region and we’ll watch the STL’s progress and<br>
see what happens as a result of the indictments. But for sure we will not
sit<br>
on our hands if things get out of hand.” The White House is said to
be<br>
considering French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s idea of creating a
“contact<br>
group” comprised of United States, France, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar
and<br>
Turkey to negotiate a solution to the latest crisis.<br><br>
There continues to be much speculation about the timing of the
Special<br>
Tribunal indictments and what they will mean on the street. Bookies at
the<br>
Casino de Liban near Jounieh have odds that those indicted will be
named<br>
publicly on next month’s valentine’s day, the 6th anniversary of the
Hariri<br>
murder. Others are holding their bets arguing that using that date
would<br>
make the STL prosecutor’s office appear too politicized, a charge
Prosecutor<br>
Daniel Bellemare has been chafing under for more than a year. The STL
has<br>
said that the names of those indicted will be kept sealed when
prosecutor<br>
Bellemare sends them to Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen. The public
will<br>
likely learn the names of those indicted when arrest warrants are issued
by<br>
the Court.<br><br>
Despite civil war still being talked about as a possibility here in
Lebanon,<br>
it has proven impossible to ignite to date even though it would suit
US-Israel<br>
political goals. The sage of Lebanon, former Prime Minister Salem el
Hoss<br>
predicts Lebanon is now headed for a long period of governmental<br>
stagnation while domestic and foreign actors angle for political and
military<br>
advantages. Dr. Hoss explained that a civil war is unlikely given
the<br>
attitudes of the young generation and the fact that none of the sects
could<br>
successfully confront the Opposition led by Hezbollah and western
powers<br>
lack credibility here.<br><br>
More likely would be Israel undertaking a White House green-lighted<br>
invasion of Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah and Syria as a base toward
the<br>
weakening of Iran from ground level. Congressional sources report that
the<br>
Pentagon disagrees with Israel and intend to attack not from the
base<br>
but from above the top of the Resistance pyramid, which is Iran. The US
will<br>
hit Iran hard thus hopefully opening up another attempt to peel away<br>
Syria and forced them to accept a peace deal with Israel. The scheme
would<br>
return the Golan heights to the Assad regime minus the 100 meters<br>
strip along Syria’s Lake Tiberius. This sliver of lake front is where
former<br>
Syrian President Hafez Assad told President Bill Clinton in 2000, he used
to<br>
swim as a kid. He also told Clinton that Syria’s demand for its full
return<br>
was non-negotiable, the same position adamantly held today by the
Syrian<br>
government.<br><br>
In Beirut, discussing the likelihood of street violence, a March 14th
Hariri<br>
supporter attending Professor Norman Finkelstein’s public lecture at
AUB<br>
last night told this observer that Lebanon needs stability and justice.
“Let<br>
all the dead from Lebanon’s black civil war period rest in peace. It’s
time<br>
to move on and rebuild our fractured country. I say all those who have
been<br>
killed in Lebanon are equal.”<br><br>
Well almost.<br><br>
The enthusiastic young man did not believe his counsel should apply to
the<br>
case of his personal idol, former P.M. Rafik Hariri, who while not the
first PM<br>
to be killed in office, is the first one to be killed with such powerful
friends<br>
insisting on “justice.”<br><br>
<b>Originally published in Al Manar
<a href="http://almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=170378&language=en">
http://almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=170378&language=en</a>
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