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<a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/lamb01132011.html" eudora="autourl">
http://www.counterpunch.org/lamb01132011.html<br>
</a></font><font size=2 color="#990000">January 13, 2011<br><br>
</font><h1><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=4><b>What's Next in
Lebanon?<br><br>
<br>
</i></font><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=5 color="#990000">Why
Hezbollah
Walked</b></font></h1><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=4>By
FRANKLIN LAMB<br><br>
</font><font size=3>"In case no one has noticed, the Obama
administration just gifted Lebanon to Iran. Washington
earlier presented Iraq, Afghanistan, the Gulf, and Pakistan.
Could it be more clear that Iran’s strategic trump card is
America’s subservience to Israel? For Iran, Israel’s
strangle hold on the US government is the gift that keeps on giving.
” With his comment, my neighbor, Lebanese Human Rights Ambassador
Ali Khalil, declared American hegemony in the region was on a slippery
and descending slope and that yesterday’s political maneuvering in
Lebanon likely accelerated American withdrawal.<br><br>
My other neighbors in South Beirut appeared to go to bed early last night
following the day’s events which saw the collapsed of Lebanon’s US-Saudi
and Israeli backed government. Some, like my American and Lebanese
roommates were planning for quick evacuations should our Hezbollah
neighborhood-watch guys give us that special knock on the door. Two rapid
raps and a shouted “Yalla!” (Let’s go) and it’s time to head north fast
without looking back. The reason is because, like many here, some
neighbors fear Israel might use this latest government crisis to invade
Lebanon again.<br><br>
Yesterday, our “government” electricity (and internet) was cut from
10 a.m. until 2 p.m. and again from 6 p.m. to midnight. At
least ten hour daily power cuts is the norm south and north of
the pro-US/Saudi Hamra “chic” district, where three hours or less
daily power cuts are experienced. Spending lots of hours in candle
light probably made the unsubstantiated rumors even more
unsettling. “The armed forces of Lebanon, Hezbollah and its allies,
Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Israel and Iran are on military alert. The
Americans may send battalions from Iraq!”, the young man who works in the
phone shop near my flat whispered. I could not help noticing that some of
the young men normally hanging out in our hood seemed to have vanished.
Even my phone card guy was impatient with me wanting to recharge my
phone, “please hurry”, he said, ”I have an appointment and need to close
my shop.”<br><br>
<b>The assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri<br><br>
</b>The current government crisis has its origins in the February
14, 2005 Valentine’s Day murder of Lebanon’s prime minister
Rafic Hariri and 20 others. The Bush administration declared
Syria responsible and saw an opportunity to force the Assad regime
to drop its friendship with Washington’s regional nemesis Iran, and to
end its support for the National Lebanese Resistance led by
Hezbollah.<br><br>
One of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s State Department lawyers
came up with the idea to use the UN Security Council to set up a
Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) to try Hariri’s killers and to
hammer Syria into warming to Israel and to US projects for the
region.<br><br>
What was not considered at the time, but later became a godsend from the
points of view of Israel and the Bush administration was leaked
Tribunal information claiming that Hezbollah members might also be
involved in the assassination. Hardly believing, one imagines, their good
luck, Israel and the US abruptly changed directions and decided to use
the newly formed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) to rid themselves of
Hezbollah once and for all as well as to correct Syria’s behavior,
believing that the Syrian government would also be indicted.<br><br>
The pressure on Hezbollah caused the party to condemn what it claims
is false witnesses and it strongly urged the Lebanese government to
open a case against them and not allow the STL, which it and others
believe has became fatally politicized by rushing to
judgment, to receive Lebanese government cooperation.
Hezbollah’s adversaries hailed the tribunal even if Lebanon’s
stability was endangered. After nearly fourteen months of trying to
get the Saad Hariri government to seriously reconsider its positions on
the STL, the Hezbollah-led opposition gave the majority an ultimatum
either to call a cabinet meeting by January 12, 2011 to discuss the STL
or the opposition Cabinet members would resign. What Hezbollah and
its allies wanted was for PM Hariri to convene a Cabinet session to
consider whether to stop payment of Lebanon’s 49 per cent share of
the financing of the STL, whether to withdraw the Lebanese judges
from the tribunal, consider ending all cooperation with the STL,
and prosecuting the “false witnesses” it claimed was linked to the
UN probe into Rafik Hariri’s killing.<br><br>
Under enormous pressure from Washington, Paris and Riyadh , Saad
balked. The opposition quickly resigned. Under article 69 the
Lebanese Constitution, the resignation of one-third plus one of Cabinet
members automatically leads to the collapse of the 30-member
government. It was the first time in Lebanon’s politically
turbulent history that a government collapsed under pressure of the
resignations of one-third plus one of its members.<br><br>
In order to secure the eleventh cabinet resignation, to add to
Hezbollah’s ten, in order to bring down the pro-US government, Hezbollah
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s key political aide
Hussein Khalil, called President Suleiman’s Cabinet designee, Sayyed
Hussein. Khalil reportedly conveyed Nasrallah’s greetings and his hope
that Hussein would decide what to do based on his conscience.
Huyssein’s resignation quickly followed and Hariri’s Premiership ended as
he sat with President Obama at the White House. <br><br>
<b>What the toppling of the Hariri government means for the near
term<br><br>
</b>Regional players reacted more or less predictably with the US
accusing Iran, Syria and Hezbollah of ‘blackmail’, the French warning
Syria that is would be held to account if there is violence in
Lebanon and the British warning of long term dangers. British Foreign
Secretary William Hague said in a statement: “This is an extremely
serious development which could have grave implications for Lebanon and
for regional stability.” One British diplomat added last this
evening, “Good Grief, however can we resolve this problem anytime
soon?” <br><br>
Israeli Foreign Ministry officials said they were "carefully
following events" in Lebanon following the resignations and that
"The Lebanese understand that an attempt by extremist to disturb the
peace may turn out as a perilous gamble," according to
Israeli TV Channel 10. Israel is being accused today in
Lebanon of trying to provoke strife and to gain advantage from the
governmental crisis. Yesterday after kidnapping Sharbel
Khoury, a shepherd from near Rmeish (he was released 24 hours later) the
Israel navy also entered Lebanese waters along the coast. This
afternoon (1/13/10) Israeli warplanes overflew Baalbek, Nabatiyeh
and Marjayoun. These incursions constituted Israel’s 7,269 and 7,270th
violation of Lebanese sovereignty since the August 2006 adoption of UN
Security Council Resolution 1701 ordering it to stay out of
Lebanon. Several UNIFIL and UN protests have had no effect on
Israel while Washington remains mute on the subject of Israeli violations
of Lebanese sovereignty. <br><br>
Free Patriotic Movement member and Hezbollah supporter Jebran
Bassil, who was Minister of Energy until yesterday, blamed
Washington for the fact that Saudi-Syrian efforts to prevent the
resignations, reached a dead end. “The other side bowed to external,
especially American pressure, ignoring the advice and wishes of the Saudi
and Syrian sides,” Bassil said.<br><br>
For his part, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid
Jumblatt seemed to agree with the FPM and he attributed the
failure of mediation efforts of Saudi Arabia and Syria to the “forces of
darkness,” alluding to leading Western powers, “It appears the forces of
darkness got involved and stymied the Syrian-Saudi initiative, through
which we would have seen a blocking of the negative repercussion of the
STL indictment.”<br><br>
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea blamed the rival March 8 camp for
seeking what he called “Stalin-like” powers, accusing it of “seeking to
steal away the prerogatives of the president and the prime
minister.”<br><br>
<b>What next for Hezbollah?<br><br>
</b>The Hezbollah led opposition, as a result of the last election, has a
majority in the 128-member Parliament, which enables it to name a
candidate of its own for prime minister during the president’s soon to be
announced binding parliamentary consultations. At noon on 1/13/10,
Hezbollah voting bloc leader MP Mohammed Raad, announced that the
opposition will name “a personality with a history of national resistance
to head the new government.” Some are speculating that Hezbollah might
propose the longtime Sunni leader Omar Karami, a moderate self effacing
fellow with strong Syrian, progressive, and popular support.<br><br>
Whatever it decides to do, Hezbollah may well take its time as its
ponders major responsibilities that would envelop the resistance movement
should it decide to govern Lebanon. Some of its supporters are urging
Hezbollah to accept the daunting challenge and implement its 2009
Manifesto and its recent election platforms and end the mafia-like
corruption among some Lebanon’s political leaders. Several Lebanese civil
society NGO’s are urging Hezbollah to do more for Lebanon’s increasingly
fragile environment, fix once and for all Lebanon’s serious water,
electricity and infrastructure problems, and let the Lebanese public
decide if Hezbollah is true to their cause and warrants its future
electoral support.<br><br>
Others continue to also lobby the party to immediately end
Lebanon’s and the Arabs’ shame and grant Palestinian refugees the
internationally mandated basic civil rights to work and to own a home. If
Hezbollah heads the government, Palestinian prospects for achieving these
elementary rights will look a lot brighter.<br><br>
<b>Franklin Lamb</b> is doing research in Lebanon and is reachable c/o
<a href="mailto:fplamb@gmail.com">fplamb@gmail.com</a><br><br>
<br><br>
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