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<a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/carlsen11032009.html" eudora="autourl">
http://www.counterpunch.org/carlsen11032009.html<br><br>
</a></font><font face="Verdana" size=2 color="#990000">November 3,
2009<br><br>
</font><h1><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=4><b>The
Reinstatement of Zelaya <br><br>
<br>
</i></font><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=5 color="#990000">The
Little Coup That Couldn't
</b></font></h1><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=4>By LAURA
CARLSEN <br><br>
</font><font face="Verdana" size=6 color="#990000">O</font>
<font face="Verdana" size=2>n Oct. 29, Honduras' de facto regime finally
agreed to allow Congress to vote on whether to "return executive
power to its state prior to June 28"--a convoluted way of saying
"reinstate President Manuel Zelaya." Conceding to international
and national pressure, the Honduran coup appears to be facing its final
days.<br><br>
June 28 was the date when the Armed Forces kidnapped the elected
president, Manuel Zelaya, and forcibly exiled him to Costa Rica. If the
agreement brokered this week holds, Honduran society will have turned the
ugly precedent of a modern-day military coup d'etat into an example of
the strength of nonviolent grassroots resistance.<br><br>
The coup regime has held power for over four months. When the entire
international community condemned the coup, many observers thought it
would cave. It didn't. When those nations went on to apply sanctions,
many believed it would crumple. It didn't. When over half the Honduran
population called for its demise, many were sure it would back down. It
didn't. Instead, a handful of the nation's wealthiest businessmen and
politicians backed by the armed forces held democracy at gunpoint for 123
days.<br><br>
During that time the little coup chugged on, emitting puffs of bravado
when challenged and running over people on its track. Some twenty-one
members of the resistance movement were murdered by security forces or
hitmen. National and international human rights organizations were
overwhelmed by the macabre task of documenting cases of human rights
violations. The closure of independent media, rapes, beatings, arbitrary
detentions, torture and persecution made many Hondurans feel like they
were living in a flashback to the military dictatorships of the '80s. In
many ways, they were.<br><br>
</font><font face="Verdana" size=2 color="#990000"><b>A Breakthrough of
Sorts<br><br>
</b></font><font face="Verdana" size=2>President Zelaya expressed
"satisfaction" at the agreement. Zelaya's negotiating team had
agreed long before on the terms of the revised San Jose Accords, and
negotiations were hung up on the coup's refusal to allow reinstatement of
the president.<br><br>
The terms include reinstatement of Zelaya, creation of a government of
national reconciliation, suspension of a possible vote on holding a
Constitutional Assembly until after Jan. 27, when Zelaya's term ends, no
amnesty for political crimes on either side, establishment of a
Verification Commission to follow-up the agreement and a Truth Commission
to investigate events leading up to and after the coup and revoking
sanctions.<br><br>
The leader of the de facto regime, Roberto Micheletti, issued a statement
Thursday night saying, "I am pleased to announce that a few minutes
ago I authorized my negotiating team to sign an agreement that marks the
beginning of the end of the political situation in the
country."<br><br>
Micheletti voiced no humility in defeat. He applauded his own largesse,
saying that "accepting this proposal represents a significant
concession on the part of this government." He added, "But we
understand that our people demand that we turn the page of history in
these difficult moments. For that reason, I have decided to support this
new proposal to achieve a final accord as soon as
possible."<br><br>
Micheletti reversed months of intransigence on the issue of Zelaya's
return to power. He ended up signing essentially the same accord he has
rejected since talks began in San Jose, Costa Rica in early
July.<br><br>
Who knows what magic words were uttered to change the opinion of one of
the most stubborn dictators in recent history. But whatever they were,
they probably came out of Tom Shannon's mouth.<br><br>
For months, both sides have noted that the U.S. government is the only
entity with the power to break the impasse, due to Honduran military and
economic dependency on the United States. In a press conference held in
Tegucigalpa shortly before the agreement, Assistant Secretary of State
Shannon explicitly confirmed that the sticking point was "political
will" (the coup's unwillingness to accept Zelaya's reinstatement)
and that the U.S. government was there to induce that political
will.<br><br>
From our point of view, the deal's on the table. This is not really a
question of drafting or of shaping a paragraph. It's really a question of
political will. And that's why it was so important, I think, for us to
come to Honduras at this moment to make clear to all Hondurans that we
believe the political will that is displayed and expressed by Honduras's
leaders should respect the democratic vocation of the Honduran people and
the democratic aspirations of the Honduran people, and the desire of
Honduras to return to a larger democratic community in the Americas...
And that's why we came, to underscore our interest in ensuring that the
political will is there to do a deal.<br><br>
Shannon mentioned legitimizing the elections and future access to
development funding from international financial institutions as carrots
(or sticks) in the negotiations:<br><br>
</font>
<dl>
<dd>...An agreement within the national dialogue opens a large space for
members of the international community to assist Honduras in this
election process, to observe the elections, and to have a process that is
peaceful and which produces leadership that is widely recognized
throughout the hemisphere as legitimate. This will be important as a way
of creating a pathway for Honduras to reintegrate itself into the
Inter-American community, to not - and not just the OAS, but also the
Inter-American Development Bank and its other institutions, and to access
development funding through the international financial
institutions.<br><br>
</dl>It worked--at least in the formal stages, as the world now awaits
implementation. The State Department was in a celebratory mood following
the success of the high-level delegation consisting of Shannon, deputy
Craig Kelly and the White House NSC representative for the Western
Hemisphere, Dan Restrepo. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held a
special press conference from Islamabad announcing the breakthrough in
negotiations in Honduras:<br><br>
<dl>
<dd>I want to congratulate the people of Honduras as well as President
Zelaya and Mr. Micheletti for reaching an historic agreement. I also
congratulate Costa Rican President Oscar Arias for the important role he
has played in fashioning the San Jose process and the OAS for its role in
facilitating the successful round of talks. I cannot think of another
example of a country in Latin America that having suffered a rupture of
its democratic and constitutional order overcame such a crisis through
negotiation and dialogue.<br><br>
<dd>This is a big step forward for the Inter-American system and its
commitment to democracy as embodied in the Inter-American Democratic
Charter. I'm very proud that I was part of the process, that the United
States was instrumental in the process. But I'm mostly proud of the
people of Honduras who have worked very hard to have this matter resolved
peacefully.<br><br>
</dl>After the dust clears, historians will map the course of the little
coup that couldn't.<br><br>
But from this observer's view, negotiation and dialogue played a minor
role in the apparent resolution of this phase of the crisis. In the end,
the mobilization of Honduran society sent a clear message that
"normal" government would not be possible and even more
widespread insurrection loomed unless a return to democracy reopened
institutional paths. International pressures and sanctions played a far
greater role in cornering the coup than the technical terms of an accord
that is vague, difficult to implement and contentious.<br><br>
The last-minute decision of the coup to sign also begs the question: if
this is what it took--a little strong-arming from the State Department's
A-team--why didn't they do it before twenty-one people were
killed?<br><br>
<font face="Verdana" size=2 color="#990000">The Beginning of the End, or
the End of the Beginning?<br><br>
</b></font>Leaving those questions to the historians, there is reason to
celebrate but the situation now poses tremendous challenges. If it
weren't for the extraordinary levels of commitment, participation and
awareness generated by the democratic crisis over the past months, the
challenges Honduran society now faces could well be deemed
impossible.<br><br>
The first is to implement the agreement. Although the decision to restore
Zelaya to power must receive a non-binding opinion from the Supreme Court
and then be approved in Congress, it appears to be a done deal. Zelaya's
team reportedly had the support of members from the UD Party, 20 members
of the Liberal Party and more recently the support of the conservative
National Party to revoke the decree that was issued to justify his
removal from office. That decree was originally accompanied by a forged
letter of resignation that was immediately denounced.<br><br>
The second is to restore constitutional order, consolidating the
presidency, the new cabinet and state institutions.<br><br>
This is a mammoth task. Zelaya knows he can't just step back into the
Presidential Palace and assume that society has returned to its pre-coup
state. Under the terms of the agreement, he must form a new cabinet with
the participation of coup supporters. Anger runs high and this will be a
controversial and delicate undertaking. He must review the damage done to
national coffers under the coup regime. He must reestablish a
relationship with the Armed Forces and the other branches of government.
Many institutions have undergone purges of personnel under the coup and
must be reestablished and work to regain legitimacy.<br><br>
Third, is to organize elections for Nov. 29 or a later agreed-upon
date.<br><br>
If the original date is not changed, that leaves less than a month before
nationwide elections. Imagine a nation moving from the complete breakdown
of its democratic system and institutions, to campaigns, to elections in
less than thirty days. Anti-coup candidates had pulled out, other
campaigns had been met with protests, and now the problem of the
logistics of organizing elections raises serious issues, let alone legal,
social and political obstacles.<br><br>
The timeline is critical to the process. Zelaya told AFP that the
timeline is under discussion and pointed out a concern that has been
growing among international organizations and the Honduran public: if
reinstatement and the return to democratic order do not happen
immediately, the elections scheduled for Nov. 29 will be in jeopardy. His
return, he noted, "must be well before the elections to be able to
validate them."<br><br>
In fact, despite the breakthrough, the legitimacy of the elections is
already in jeopardy. If the reinstatement process drags out, as the
negotiations did, Hondurans worry they could find themselves in the
middle of an electoral farce. Even if all goes smoothly, nothing will be
easy or "normal." The United Nations, the Organization of
American States, and the European Union had all announced they would not
send elections observers to coup-sponsored elections, as a refusal to
recognize their legitimacy but also citing the logistical difficulties of
putting together effective teams on such short notice. Now the OAS has
stated it is attempting to put together a an observation team but the
European Union had previously said it requires six weeks to put together
such an elections mission and could no longer consider it.<br><br>
Honduran law provides for a three-month campaign period prior to the vote
so it would need to be modified to accommodate a Nov. 29 election. Even
if there were an immediate halt to serious human rights violations--many
of which are essential to free and fair elections, such as freedom of
expression, freedom of press and freedom of assembly--they leave wounds
and gaps. As the agreement was being hammered out, coup security forces
once again attacked a peaceful demonstrators.<br><br>
Fourth, will be to continue moving toward a vote on holding a
Constitutional Assembly.<br><br>
This demand is not going away, despite the agreement between Zelaya and
Micheletti not to raise the issue until after Jan. 27. This point of the
accords caused Juan Barahona, a leader of the National Front Against the
Coup, to resign from the Zelaya negotiating team because it has become
central to the movement not only to restore, but to expand, Honduran
democracy.<br><br>
A Constitutional Assembly is now more necessary than ever. It would serve
to repair the contradictions in the current constitution that
coup-mongers exploited to rupture the democratic order, and channel the
legitimate demands of organizations of peasants, indigenous peoples,
urban poor, women, youth and other groups pushed to the margins of a
vastly unequal economic and political system. Since the mobilization of
popular sectors in resistance to the coup, it is not possible to conceive
of a free and stable society without proceeding with a Constitutional
Assembly.<br><br>
Zelaya was quick to point out that obstacles remain. "This is a
first step to bringing about my reinstatement that will have to go
through several stages. I'm moderately optimistic," he told AFP news
service from the Brazilian Embassy, where he has been holed up since
Sept. 21.<br><br>
The reinstatement of President Zelaya will likely be voted on soon.
Emails from the Honduran Internet groups that have formed a virtual
community to debate and decry the military coup in their country, now
demonstrate a range of feelings, from jubilation to skepticism. Elections
pose a huge challenge to anti-coup forces since a wide range of opinions
play out within the diverse National Front Against the Coup.<br><br>
Hondurans now move into the next phase of a long struggle to rebuild and
broaden democracy. The challenge includes holding free and fair elections
in the short term, but also includes critical issues of expanding
democratic rights and participation beyond the elections and the system
of representation. They must find ways to heal deep wounds and confront
an economic and political crisis that is far from over.<br><br>
If the coup finally falls and Zelaya is restored to power, Honduran
society and the international community will score an historic victory.
It must be remembered though, that the victory is a defensive one--it
marks the successful rollback of anti-democratic forces in a small but
determined nation.<br><br>
Those forces will not desist--in Honduras or in other places where
democracy is vulnerable and nefarious interests are strong. Until
democracy in the fullest sense--participatory and dedicated to
nonviolence--gains ground, the world could be stuck in long battles to
defend against attacks instead of moving forward toward societies where
this kind of offensive against the rule of law can no longer
occur.<br><br>
Laura Carlsen</b> is director of the Americas Policy Program in Mexico
City. She can be reached at: (lcarlsen(a)ciponline.org).<br><br>
<br><br>
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