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<a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/grandin07302009.html" eudora="autourl">
http://www.counterpunch.org/grandin07302009.html<br><br>
</a></font><font face="Verdana" size=2 color="#990000">July 30,
2009<br><br>
</font><h1><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=4><b>Once Again South
America Comes to Washington's Rescue <br><br>
</i></font><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=5 color="#990000">
Honduran Coup Over?
</b></font></h1><font face="Times New Roman, Times" size=4>By GREG
GRANDIN <br><br>
</font><font face="Verdana" size=6 color="#990000">B</font>
<font face="Verdana" size=2>loomberg is reporting that Honduran coup
leader, Roberto Micheletti has accepted
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a7v4Z21SjaWk">
the Arias plan</a>, which means -- if true -- that Manuel Zelaya will be,
with conditions, as president. Though Micheletti is still begging for
time, saying he needs Arias’s help in convincing his co-coup leaders to
agree.<br><br>
The terms are unclear about what is covered in the Arias’ amnesty, but it
is doubtful there will be any investigation or prosecution of the
human-rights violations that have taken place, including nine, perhaps
ten murders, all against Zelaya supporters, over the last month.<br><br>
The very fact that there are conditions on Zelaya’s return, and that
there were negotiations, granted legitimacy to the coup leaders. But, and
this is a big but, the very fact of Zelaya’s return is important for
three reasons: <br><br>
</font>
<dl>
<dd>1. The momentum building in Honduras could continue, including an
emerging alliance between the traditional, organized left (unions,
peasant organizations, politicians), new social movements, real
democrats, and the long-suppressed reformist wing of the liberal part (of
course, it could fizzle out; if this new alliance put its energies into
backing a presidential candidate in the coming elections, which are
presumably advanced from November to take place in October, and that
candidate lost, it could effectively end any energy (but right now,
social movements are saying that no matter what the Arias accords say,
they plan to still push the idea of a constitutional amendment).
.<br><br>
<dd>2. Potential coup plotters in neighboring Guatemala, and possibly El
Salvador, must be discouraged. They were hoping Honduras might offer a
model to follow, what with peasants on the march in Guatemala
(protesting, among other things, transnational mining and biofuels) and a
center-left president in office who refuses to repress them, and the FMLN
in power in El Salvador. If Zelaya returns, this is a set back for
them.<br><br>
<dd>3. Perhaps most important on an international level, it delays the
maturation of the budding alliance between neoliberals like Lanny Davis
(who stands in for the broader Clinton camp) and neo-cons like Reich and
Roger Noriega, who have developed close ties with Colombia, Venezuelan
self-exiles, and displaced neoliberals from Bolivia. It also strengthens
the relatively more sane tendency within the Obama foreign-policy
coalition. One underreported aspect of the coup is that Nike, Adidas,
Gap, and Knights Apparel lobbied Washington to restore Zelaya. They have
maquilas in San Pedro Sula and were afraid of further labor unrest, which
I guess is what passes these days for the modernizing bourgeoisie…
<br><br>
</dl>Also, the chronology of the diplomacy has been interesting:<br><br>
1. coup<br><br>
2. US responds tepidly, but when the rest of Latin America, the OAS, and
the EU condemns the coup forcefully, Obama responds in kind.<br><br>
3. South America, having solved without US help in a very impressive
fashion two regional crises last year (Bolivia and Ecuador/Colombia)
seems to let the US take the lead on this, since it is taking place in an
area squarely in its sphere of influence; White House defers to State
Department, which enlists Costa Rica and Oscar Arias to negotiate,
despite the fact that OAS and most of South America opposed granting that
degree of legitimacy to coup plotters<br><br>
4. Coup government initially rejects Arias plan, indicating that US can’t
even curb this client state, the third poorest in the hemisphere<br><br>
5. Zelaya threatens to return over land, prompting State Department –
embarrassed by the breakdown of Costa Rican talks – to call Zelaya
“reckless.” But Zelaya’s presence on Honduras’s southern border ramps up
pressure on coup regime, which begins to accuse Zelayas’ supporters of
receiving money from Colombia’s FARC (the FARC must be brimming with
money, for left politicians from Honduras to Ecuador are accused of being
on its payroll).<br><br>
6. At the same time, South America, both individual countries like
Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela and collectively through Mercosur (which met
last week in Paraguay), return to putting pressure on Washington to put
pressure on Honduras. <br><br>
7.Washington revokes visas of coup plotters, perhaps signaling that the
game is over.<br><br>
8. Micheletti – just days after publishing an
<a href="http://machetera.wordpress.com/2009/07/27/otto-reichs-propaganda-factory-still-churning-out-the-goods/">
op-ed in the WSJ</a> probably ghost written by
<a href="http://machetera.wordpress.com/2009/07/27/otto-reichs-propaganda-factory-still-churning-out-the-goods/">
Otto Reich or Lanny Davis</a>– throws in towel, hopefully.<br><br>
So once again, South America comes to Washington's rescue...<br><br>
Greg Grandin</b> teaches Latin American history at NYU and is the author
of the
<a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0805077383/counterpunchmaga">
Empire's Workshop: Latin America, The United States, and The Rise of the
New Imperialism</a></i>, from which this essay has been excerpted. He can
be reached at: <a href="mailto:gjg4@nyu.edu">gjg4@nyu.edu</a><br><br>
<br><br>
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