<html>
<body>
<font size=3><br><br>
</font><font size=3 color="#7F7A00"><b><a href="http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/world/11085203.htm">Hizbullah's
call for a huge pro-Syrian demonstration</a></b></font><font size=3> in
Beirut was answered by hundreds of thousands of protesters on Tuesday.
The largely Shiite crowds were huge compared to the smaller anti-Syrian
demonstrations held for the past week. <br><br>
The anti-Syrian protesters had mostly been Christians, with some Druze
and Sunnis. But Lebanon is probably only now 20 percent Maronite
Christian (the most anti-Syrian group), and may be as much as 40 percent
Shiite.<br><br>
The simplistic master narrative constructed by the partisans of President
George W. Bush held that the January 30 elections were a huge success,
and signalled a turn to democracy in the Middle East. Then the
anti-Syrian demonstrations were interpreted as a yearning for democracy
inspired by the Iraqi elections.<br><br>
This interpretation is a gross misunderstanding of the situation in the
Middle East. Bush is not pushing with any real force for democratization
of Saudi Arabia (an absolute monarchy) or Pakistan (where the elected
parliament demands in vain that General Pervez Musharraf take off his
uniform if he wants to be president), or Tunisia (where Zayn Ben Ali has
just won his 4th unopposed term as president), etc. Democratization is
being pushed only for regimes that Bush dislikes, such as Syria or Iran.
The gestures that Mubarak of Egypt made (officially recognized parties
may put up candidates to run against him, but not popular political
forces like the Muslim Brotherhood) are empty.<br><br>
In fact the Jan. 30 Iraqi elections were deeply flawed. 42 percent of the
electorate did not show up. The elections could only be held by locking
down the country for 3 days, forbidding all vehicular traffic to stop car
bombings. The electorate had no idea for whom they were voting, since the
candidates' names were secret until the last moment. The Sunni Arabs
boycotted or were prevented from voting by the ongoing guerrilla war,
which started right back up after the ban on traffic lapsed.<br><br>
The Lebanese have been having often lively parliamentary election
campaigns for decades. The idea that the urbane and sophisticated
Beirutis had anything to learn from the Jan. 30 process in Iraq is absurd
on the face of it. Elections were already scheduled in Lebanon for later
this spring.<br><br>
Moreover, the anti-Syrian protests were not a signal that the Lebanese
wanted to be like American-occupied Iraq. They were a signal that the
Druze, Maronites and a section of the Sunnis had agreed to try to push
Syria out. It was the US who had invited Syria into Lebanon in 1976. And
it was a sign that Lebanon is still deeply divided, since the Shiite
plurality largely supports Syria. Given the pro-Syrian sentiment in some
Sunni cities like Tripoli, it may well be that a majority of Lebanese
want Syria to remain in some capacity. If that were true, what would it
do to Mr. Bush's master narrative of the march of democracy?<br><br>
The main exhibit for the relevance of Iraq to Lebanon is Druze warlord
Walid Jumblatt's statement to the Washington Post: "It's strange for
me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the
American invasion of Iraq. I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the
Iraqi people voting, eight million of them, it was the start of a new
Arab world." <br><br>
It is highly unlikely that Jumblatt is sincere in this statement. He has
seen Lebanese vote for parliament several times, and has campaigned, and
Iraq was nothing new to his experience (like Lebanon, it is occupied by a
foreign military power even during its elections).<br><br>
It is worth recalling Jumblatt's stance on Iraq and Paul Wolfowitz (for
more on whom, see below):<br><br>
<br>
</font>
<dl>
<dd>November 19, 2003<br><br>
<dd>US annuls visa for Lebanese politician who regretted Wolfowitz
survived<br><br>
<dd>BEIRUT, Nov 19 (AFP)<br><br>
<dd>A leading Lebanese politician said Wednesday his US visa had been
annulled after he expressed regret that US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul
Wolfowitz was unhurt in a Baghdad rocket attack.<br><br>
<dd>Walid Jumblatt, an MP who is leader of Lebanon's Druze community,
told AFP he had "received from the US embassy in Beirut a letter
saying that the visa -- valid until 2007 -- has been cancelled" . .
.<br><br>
<dd>According to a letter sent by the US State Department to Jumblatt and
published by Al-Mostaqbal newspaper, the visa was withdrawn as it
"cannot be given to a foreigner who uses a privileged position to
express his support for terrorist activity, tries to convince others of
such support or supports a terrorist organisation."<br><br>
<dd>On October 27, Jumblatt described Wolfowitz as a "microbe"
in comments that were described as "unacceptable" by the United
States but were not condemned by the Lebanese government.<br><br>
<dd>"We hope the firing will be more precise and efficient (next
time), so we get rid of this microbe and people like him in Washington
who are spreading disorder in Arab lands, Iraq and Palestine,"
Jumblatt said.<br><br>
<dd>One US soldier was killed and 17 other people were wounded in late
October when a volley of rockets was fired at the Rashid hotel in Baghdad
that houses US military and other staff and where Wolfowitz had been
staying.<br><br>
<dd>But despite the cancellation of his visa, Jumblatt remained defiant
on Wednesday.<br><br>
<dd>"I am sticking to my position, I refute ... America's
imperialist policy," he told France's RFI radio in an
interview.<br><br>
<dd>He also accused the United States of causing "chaos" in
Iraq and putting a "puppet government" in place in
Baghdad.<br><br>
<dd>"They (the United States) will now continue the repression of
the Iraqi people who are rejecting them," he added."<br><br>
<br><br>
</dl>I guess now that Jumblatt sees a way of getting the Syrians out of
Lebanon by allying with Bush, all of a sudden America is no longer an
imperialist cause of chaos. People who want to believe that remind me of
PT Barnum's dictum that one is born every minute. <br><br>
posted by Juan @
<a href="http://www.juancole.com/2005/03/hundreds-of-thousands-of-shiites-stage.html"><font size=3 color="#5C1A1B">3/9/2005
06:24:00 AM</a></i></b></font> <br>
<x-sigsep><p></x-sigsep>
<font size=3 color="#FF0000">The Freedom Archives<br>
522 Valencia Street<br>
San Francisco, CA 94110<br>
(415) 863-9977<br>
</font><font size=3><a href="http://www.freedomarchives.org/" eudora="autourl">www.freedomarchives.org</a></font></body>
</html>