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Israel to US: Now for Iran<br>
by Khalid Amayreh in the West Bank<br>
Sunday 29 August 2004 11:00 AM GMT <br><br>
<b>Having succeeded in getting the United States to invade and occupy
Iraq, Israel is now making efforts to instigate the Bush administration
to deal with the "Iranian threat".<br><br>
</b></font><font size=2>This week, a high-ranking Israeli official urged
the US "and the rest of the free world" to deal with the
"Iranian threat before it is too late". <br>
<br>
The remarks - reminiscent of the vitriolic propaganda campaign against
Iraq prior to the Anglo-American invasion of the Arab country last year -
coincided with the publication of an article by a leading Israeli
military historian Martin Van-Creveld, suggesting that Israeli Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon might very well order an attack on Iranian nuclear
plants.<br>
<br>
Writing in the Paris-based International Herald Tribune on 21 August,
Creveld opined an Israeli or American (or a joint Israeli-American)
attack on Iranian nuclear plants might be carried out before the US
November elections.<br><br>
Israel reportedly possess a big arsenal of nuclear weapons - estimates
range from 100 to 400 weapons and bombs - along with efficient delivery
systems, including a fleet of long-range American-supplied F-15 fighter
bombers as well as the medium range ballistic missile Yeriho.<br>
<br>
<b>Justification<br><br>
</b>Seeking to justify Tel Aviv's fixation on Iran, Israeli leaders are
citing three reasons why Iran ought to dispose of its alleged would-be
nuclear capability.<br>
<br>
These include the Islamist nature of the Iranian regime, Iran's refusal
to recognise Israel and the Islamic republic's alleged support of
resistance groups fighting Israeli occupation and colonisation of the
West Bank, Gaza Strip and Arab East Jerusalem as well as part of Southern
Lebanon.<br>
<br>
However, according to Abd Al-Sattar Qasim, Professor of Political Science
at the Najah University in Nablus, these are only
"pretexts".<br>
<br>
"I believe that Israel is the most dangerous state in the world
today. Imagine what state the stability and security of the world would
be in if the messianic Jewish extremists of Gush Euminim reached power in
Israel and suddenly found themselves in control of Israel's massive
nuclear arsenal."<br>
<br>
<b>Maintaining supremacy<br><br>
</b>Qasim believes the sole motive behind Israel's currently evolving
showdown with Iran is the Israeli determination to "maintain its
nuclear monopoly and strategic supremacy in this region".<br>
<br>
"Israel simply wants to keep five hundred million Muslims in this
region under the mercy of its nuclear arsenal. The appearance of any
possible strategic deterrence would upset Israel's strategic calculations
and might rectify the strategic balance of power in the Middle
East."<br>
<br>
Creveld tacitly agrees, saying: "Iran would be crazy" not to
try developing a nuclear capability, given Israel's aggrandising nuclear
armaments, including the reported deployment of nuclear-equipped
submarines in the Mediterranean, the Arabian Sea and perhaps the Persian
Gulf.<br><br>
"It all depends on Ariel Sharon - an old war-horse who back in 1982
led Israel into a disastrous invasion of Lebanon. One can only hope that
this time he will think twice," the military historian said.<br>
<br>
In the public relations battle, Israel argues that Iran is dedicated to
the destruction of Israel, a claim that is much less than true since Iran
has said repeatedly that it will accept any solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict that will be acceptable to the
Palestinians.<br>
<br>
Furthermore, Iran could also make a similar argument, quoting statements
by Israeli ministers and officials calling for the extermination of
millions of Muslims.<br>
<br>
<b>No easy target <br>
</b> <br>
Israeli strategists recognise that attacking and destroying Iranian
nuclear installations would not be an easy job.<br><br>
These facilities, they admit, are widely dispersed, well-guarded and
housed in underground bunkers.<br>
<br>
"It wouldn't be as easy as the attack on the Iraqi nuclear
reactor," said Ephraim Ascolai, a nuclear weapons expert at the
Jafee Centre for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, alluding to the Israeli
attack on the Osirak reactor in 1981.<br>
<br>
But in an interview with Aljazeera.net, Ascolai pointed out an Israeli
attack on Iranian facilities was not unthinkable.<br>
<br>
He argued, however, that the "Iranian nuclear crisis" was not
an exclusively Israeli problem, but a world problem.<br>
<br>
"You see, this is not only between Israel and Iran. The US,
Australia and Europe have a vital interest in stopping Iran from going
nuclear," he said.<br><br>
<b>Facing retaliation<br><br>
</b>Israel faces a host of problems carrying out a successful attack on
Iranian nuclear plants, not the least of which being the would-be
expected Iranian retaliation.<br>
<br>
Iranian Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani has said on more than one occasion
that Tehran will carry out a massive retaliation if Israel attacked
Iran.<br>
<br>
In a recent interview with Aljazeera, Shamkhani warned that his country
would not sit down idly awaiting an Israeli strike and would resort to a
pre-emptive option against Israel and the US.<br>
<br>
"The concept of a pre-emptive strike is not an American
exclusivity," he said.<br>
<br>
True, Shamkhani's statements do have a large rhetorical content since a
non-nuclear Iran possesses no strategic deterrent against a supposedly
nuclear Israel, backed by its guardian-ally, the US.<br><br>
But it would be utterly naive to assume the Iranians would do nothing in
the face of a flagrant and unprovoked Israeli or American attack on their
country.<br>
<br>
<b>Leaving to US<br><br>
</b>In addition, Israel would have serious logistical problems carrying
out an attack on the Iranian installations.<br>
<br>
Turkey, with its at least nominally Islamic government, is unlikely to
allow Israel to use its airspace to launch attacks on a neighbouring
Islamic country with which Ankara has been seeking to improve and upgrade
political and economic relations.<br>
<br>
Moreover, using the "Jordanian-Iraqi conduit" would further
enforce convictions, already salient among most Arabs and Muslims, that
the American invasion and occupation of Iraq was carried out first and
foremost to serve Israel's regional strategic interests.<br><br>
This, coupled with US brazen support of Israel's settlement expansion in
the West Bank, would likely bring American credibility in this part of
the world to an all-time low.<br>
<br>
In that light, Israel's most workable approach would be to leave it to
the Americans, according to Ira Sharkansky, Professor of Political
Science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.<br>
<br>
"I think the safest thing for Israel is to let the Americans do
it," he told Aljazeera.net.<br>
<br>
And Israel, directly and through its powerful lobby in Washington, the
American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has been making
strenuous efforts to get Washington to "do something" about
Iran.<br>
<br>
<b>Repercussions<br><br>
</b>It is not clear yet what the repercussions of the reported FBI
apprehension of an Israeli spy operating in the Pentagon will be for
Israel's efforts to get the US to attack Iran.<br>
<br>
The alleged spy - reportedly Larry Franklin, who worked in the office of
Undersecretary of Defence Douglas Feith - is said to have passed
sensitive documents pertaining to Iran to Israel via two AIPAC
representatives.<br>
<br>
He reportedly had a close association with two Pentagon Jewish officials,
Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith, both of whom are strong advocates of a
tough American policy on Iran.<br><br>
And Iran's alleged nuclear programme was said to be the main focus of
Franklin's activities.<br><br>
Israeli analyst Allan Pappie of Haifa University believes the Franklin
affair will deal "a very serious blow" to American-Israeli
relations at the intelligence level.<br>
<br>
In an interview with Aljazeera.net, Pappie has said the affair will have
a long-term negative effect on US-Israeli relations and on the way Israel
and its supporters in the US are perceived.<br>
<br>
"We will not see an immediate effect, but many American officials,
especially at the intelligence and defence levels, would think twice
before deciding to have too-close relations with Israel."<br><br>
Tel Aviv's most immediate and serious concern, however, may be whether
the scandal will scuttle its efforts to persuade Washington to attack
Iran's nuclear sites.<br><br>
</font><font size=3><b>Aljazeera<br>
By Khalid Amayreh in the West Bank<br><br>
</b>You can find this article at:<br>
<a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/03398F16-8119-4A21-83E4-D93E5F161B55.htm" eudora="autourl">http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/03398F16-8119-4A21-83E4-D93E5F161B55.htm</a>
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