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<i>1730 M Street NW, Suite 1010, Washington, D.C.
20036 Phone: 202-216-9261 Fax:
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Email: <a href="mailto:coha@coha.org">coha@coha.org</a>
Website: <a href="http://www.coha.org">www.coha.org</a> <br><br>
</i>Council On Hemispheric Affairs<br><br>
Monitoring Political, Economic and Diplomatic Issues Affecting the
Western Hemisphere<br><br>
<b>Memorandum to the Press 04.06<br><br>
Tuesday, February 10, 2004<br><br>
<br>
</b>The following 794-word COHA finding on the rapidly deteriorating
situation in Haiti is available as an op-ed submission (market
restrictions will be respected) or can be freely quoted, with
attribution. <br><br>
COHA has been closely monitoring events in Haiti for many years. It
has issued scores of memoranda on the subject, which can be found on our
website. A COHA research fellow has recently returned from a one-week
trip to Haiti and is available to be interviewed. Please be in touch with
our office (202-216-9261) for additional material or commentary on
Haiti.<br><br>
<u>Memorandum to the Press<br><br>
</u>HAITI<br><br>
What had been an increasingly disloyal and violent opposition is now
leading an openly anti-democratic insurrection, as anti-Aristide forces
turn Haiti into a hellish war zone, using sequestered weapons to sack a
number of cities. An existing explosive political stalemate has
been worsening since December, when the rebels adopted a violent street
strategy along with an inflexible policy of non-negotiation to oust
President Jean-Bertrand Aristide. Yet for the State Department,
Haitis desperate struggle to preserve its hard-won democracy was given
low priority. Strangely, given the likely crushing impact on U.S.
domestic politics registered by tens of thousands of desperate Haitians
who predictably will soon undertake the perilous voyage to Florida,
Secretary of State Colin Powell remains almost languorous in the face of
daily fierce melées in Port-au-Prince. Meanwhile, the Haitian
opposition organizes a blatant power grab through belligerent
demonstrations aimed at unseating Aristide. Now Haiti has entered
into an endgame with portentous consequences, as armed opposition mobs
loot a number of cities and scores of residents are killed.<br><br>
<br><br>
In recent months, the oppositions strategy has become increasingly
clear. Lacking the numerical strength to win an election, its
elitist leaders threatened to violently oust Aristide if he refused to
resign. Haitis conservative factions have despised Aristide for his
stridency and radical message ever since he was first elected in 1990 by
a two-thirds majority. His hordes of adoring followers alienated
the islands tiny mulatto-dominated elite and the countrys
paramilitary. But Aristide was unable to effectively establish
security either by reining in his own Lavalas militants or the
oppositions street fighters, nor could he entirely professionalize his
outnumbered police force. The oppositions increasingly bellicose
anti-Aristide street marches became a coup in the making that threatened
to replicate the appalling repression suffered by Haiti under military
rule, 1991-94.<br><br>
<br><br>
Secretary Powell and his controversial Latin American aide, Roger
Noriega, have at best used delphic prose in responding to Haitian
issues. Rather than demanding that the opposition immediately
choose its representatives to the Provisional Electoral Council and end
its cat-and-mouse game aimed at sabotaging any prospect of parliamentary
elections (which the opposition almost certainly would lose), Washington
is unable to hide its pro-opposition bias, even though it cannot be seen
as backing the overthrow of a democratically-elected president.
<br><br>
<br><br>
Given the rebelsideological and financial ties to the U.S. they are
generously funded by U.S. taxpayers through the International Republican
Institute Washingtons open denouncement of their obstructionism could
have an electrifying positive effect. Yet, this has not been
forthcoming, partly because U.S. hemispheric policy is guided by a small
group of extremists with strong ideological ties to former Senator Jesse
Helms, who simplistically see Aristide as the Caribbeans next
Castro. <br><br>
<br><br>
Aside from pro-forma language, Washington has shown little interest in
ensuring that Aristide serves out his constitutionally-mandated term
through 2006. On the contrary, it repeatedly questions his bona
fides and unfairly holds him accountable for Haitis economic woes which,
in fact, the U.S. almost single-mindedly has helped to achieve. The
White House carped at Aristides admitted shortcomings, while it led
efforts to freeze $500 million in international pledges to the
island. The U.S. has placed demands that Aristide could not
possibly fulfill without the resources it will not grant him, thereby
giving the opposition a veritable veto over Haitis future. Meanwhile, the
political stalemate that produced a crippled economy has now alienated
large numbers of Haitians, who have lost faith in democracy. In the
last few days the situation has markedly worsened, as street
demonstrations have become bloody riots and armed rebels emerge intent on
overthrowing a legal government which, with all of its flaws, was neither
cruel nor authoritarian.<br><br>
<br><br>
Aside from its impermissible <i>diktat</i> mandating Aristides departure,
what do the rebels demand? Starting last December, its thugs took
to the streets and insisted that all schools and hospitals be closed
until Aristide leaves, and then underscored their demands by torching
their buildings and roughing up students. In the last few days, the
coup unfolded, as rebel forces seized 9 cities and hunted down government
officials. The preemptory demand for Aristides resignation without
further dialogue or negotiation all along has been an audacious bluff
meant to mask the fact that the rebels lacked sufficient votes to
legitimately win an election, although they held Washingtons
proxy.<br><br>
<br><br>
With a Haiti policy long bankrupt and now unraveling, U.S. policymakers
have grossly misused the islands most valuable political asset, a now
tarnished Aristide. The longer that Washington equivocates, the
countrys disintegrating economy will further sap Aristides authority,
while the rebels with their gangster tactics certainly will help propel
tens of thousands of Haitian refugees to head for U.S. shores with a
legitimate asylum claim. As Haiti enters its final destructive
phase, the U.S. will rue the day that it birthed such a spavined
policy. <br><br>
<br><br>
<b>Larry Birns and Jessica Leight<br><br>
Larry Birns</b> is the director of the Washington-based Council on
Hemispheric Affairs, where <b>Jessica Leight</b> is a research
fellow.<br><br>
<br><br>
</font><h3><b>Issued 10 February, 2004</b></h3><font size=3><i>The
Council on Hemispheric Affairs, founded in 1975, is an independent,
non-profit, non-partisan, tax-exempt research and information
organization. It has been described on the Senate floor as being one of
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