[News] West’s grip slips with Saudi–Pakistan security deal

[Anti-Imperialist News]

  West’s grip slips with Saudi–Pakistan security deal

Riyadh’s defense pact with Islamabad redraws alliances, weakens Indian 
leverage, and hints at a new Muslim deterrence framework beyond western 
control.

F.M. Shakil <https://thecradle.co/authors/fm-shakil-100>

SEP 23, 2025 - 
https://thecradle.co/articles/wests-grip-slips-with-saudi-pakistan-security-deal


Photo Credit: The Cradle

On 17 September, Riyadh rolled out the rare royal purple carpet for 
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – an honor previously reserved 
for global power players like US President Donald Trump.

Accompanying him on the trip was Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal 
Asim Munir. His presence highlighted that Riyadh values its defense pact 
<https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-nuclear-armed-pakistan-sign-mutual-defence-pact-2025-09-17/> 
with a nuclear power that, despite economic challenges, remains 
militarily strong.

*Nuclear umbrella over Riyadh*

The centerpiece of their visit was the signing of a “Strategic Mutual 
Defense Agreement” (SMDA 
<https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/explained-pakistan-and-saudi-arabias-watershed-defence-pact-1.500273947>), 
which declares that an attack on either country will be considered an 
attack on both.

Described by a senior Saudi official to /Reuters/ as covering “all 
military means,” the pact has triggered speculation that it includes a 
nuclear umbrella, which would be a game-changing development in the 
military balance of West Asia.

With 81 percent <https://t.co/ZCPNfZSodQ> of Pakistan's weapon imports 
coming from China, the agreement implicitly aligns Saudi Arabia with the 
Chinese military-industrial orbit, whether by design or default. The 
kingdom has long been reliant on US arms, training, and security guarantees.

The pact was signed just two days after an extraordinary joint session 
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/33162> between the Arab League and the 
Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) was called, following the 9 
September Israeli airstrikes on Qatar 
<https://thecradle.co/articles/us-allies-are-not-off-limits-israels-qatar-strike-shatters-gulf-illusions> 
– a major non-NATO ally and Gulf neighbor – with no substantial response 
from Washington, reinforcing perceptions that western security 
commitments are both selective and expendable.

Mushahid Hussain Syed, a former information minister and chairman of 
Pakistan’s Senate Defense Committee, tells /The Cradle/ that the US has 
pivoted away from Arab allies toward Tel Aviv, leaving the region 
disillusioned and increasingly leaning toward alternatives.

    “The strategy of ‘Greater Israel,’ spearheaded by Netanyahu, has
    involved military actions against five more Muslim nations.
    Pakistan's recent triumph against India has demonstrated its
    capacity to contest Israel's significant ally, India, and establish
    itself as a strategic alternative for Gulf nations.”

*Toward an Islamic NATO?*

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani recently called 
<https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iraq-urges-formation-of-islamic-military-alliance-to-confront-israeli-policies/3687122> 
for an Islamic military alliance, akin to NATO, in response to Israel’s 
airstrike on Doha. His proposal echoed Egypt’s earlier attempt to revive 
a joint Arab defense force under the 1950 treaty – an initiative blocked 
by Qatar and the UAE <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/33263>, 
reportedly under US pressure.

A similar proposal has also come from Islamabad when Pakistan's Defense 
Minister, Khawaja Asif 
<https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/09/17/755171/Pakistan-defense-minister-Muslim-countries-form-NATO-style-military-alliance-address-common-challenges-Israeli-attack-Qatar>, 
urged Muslim countries to band together in a NATO-like military alliance 
in light of the Israeli aggression in Doha.

During an appearance on Geo TV last week, Asif drove home the point that 
a united Muslim military front is essential to tackle common security 
issues and fend off outside dangers. Asif invoked the wider role of the 
west in instigating instability in West Asia, emphasizing the intricate 
network of US support for Al-Qaeda and the CIA's covert actions that led 
to Osama bin Laden's relocation to Sudan or the regime change war in Syria.

*Is nuclear deterrence a part of the Pact?*

The nuclear dimension of the Riyadh–Islamabad pact remains opaque, but 
highly significant. While no official statement from either side 
confirms the presence of a nuclear component, Asif hinted 
<https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/pakistan-saudi-arabia-islamabad-israel-hamas-b2829815.html> 
that Pakistan's nuclear capabilities could be shared with Saudi Arabia 
as part of the agreement.

Syed, however, clarifies to /The Cradle/ that Pakistan's nuclear 
doctrine is India-centric and that its deterrence posture is South 
Asia-specific and does not extend to the Persian Gulf.

    “A novel security framework for the region appears to be taking
    shape, focusing on Global South nations such as Pakistan and Saudi
    Arabia, whereas the Indo-Israeli Axis, previously supported by the
    US, now finds itself significantly diminished.”

The defense agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, he says, 
represents a notable achievement for Pakistan, establishing it as a 
pivotal entity within the geopolitical framework of West Asia, 
particularly among Muslim countries.

    “The agreement is shaped by three significant elements: the
    perceived neglect of Arab allies by the United States, Israel's
    proactive maneuvers in areas such as Iran, Qatar, Lebanon, Syria,
    and Yemen, and Pakistan's recent triumph over India in May.”

*New Delhi, Tel Aviv on alert*

Foreign media and analysts are already warning that the pact may have 
unintended consequences for India 
<https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c147gkxyyrmo> and Israel 
<https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-868266>, despite claims that it 
targets neither. Others predict that this pact is really about Riyadh’s 
ambitions to counter Iran 
<https://theprint.in/opinion/pakistan-strategic-pact-with-saudi-arabia-is-really-about-iran-and-blessed-by-us/2747247/> 
and Yemen's Ansarallah-led government in the region.

Dr Abdul Rauf Iqbal, a senior research scholar at the Institute for 
Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis (ISSRA) at Islamabad's National 
Defence University (NDU), tells /The Cradle/ that New Delhi views the 
pact with unease as it formalizes Saudi–Pakistani security ties that 
could entangle Riyadh in South Asian rivalries, especially the 
India–Pakistan border tensions over Jammu and Kashmir:

    “It represents a setback for Prime Minister Modi's foreign policy,
    potentially leading to Saudi involvement in a prospective Indo–Pak
    conflict. Furthermore, future Saudi investments in Pakistan's Gwadar
    port and economic corridors would challenge India's regional
    influence and initiatives such as the India-Middle East-Europe
    Corridor (IMEC).”

He adds that Saudi Arabia's pivot toward Pakistan reflects a broader 
alignment of Muslim powers and could push Tel Aviv to recalibrate its 
war on Gaza. It also pressures Tel Aviv by placing Pakistan – a vocal 
opponent of Israeli expansionism – into West Asian affairs.

    “This agreement is not meant to counterbalance Iran's regional
    influence, but rather to promote the Saudi Iranian reconciliation,
    as Pakistan maintains friendly relations with both nations. By
    formalizing ties with nuclear-armed Pakistan, Riyadh secures a
    credible deterrent as US security guarantees weaken. While western
    think tanks view it as an effort to contain Iran, the Arab world
    emphasizes it as strengthening Gulf deterrence independently of
    Washington.”

Indian concerns also stem from fears that the pact’s NATO-style clause 
could complicate ongoing operations like Sindoor 
<https://thecradle.co/articles/india-pakistan-war-the-winners-and-the-losers>, 
which remains active in a limited capacity following the skirmish 
<https://thecradle.co/articles/india-and-pakistan-lock-horns-who-won-and-why> 
between the two nuclear powers in May, especially given that the Gulf 
states’ swift mediation to resolve the crisis reflects their own 
interests with India and makes any military action against it unlikely.

Secondly, India is strategically analyzing Pakistan's nuclear 
capability, which could see a boost if Saudi Arabia, having no such 
capacity, begins channeling funds to share Pakistan’s nuclear assets.

*A post-western Gulf order?*

While Tel Aviv and New Delhi remain publicly silent, both capitals are 
undoubtedly scrutinizing the fallout. Israel's failed assassination 
attempt on Hamas leaders in Qatar, and India’s pressure campaign along 
the Line of Control, suggest that the axis 
<https://thecradle.co/articles/india-and-israel-lose-their-us-backed-dominance-in-asia> 
is nervous about the consequences of a Saudi–Pakistani alliance. Israeli 
media downplayed 
<https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2025-09-22/ty-article/.premium/why-the-saudi-levers-of-power-are-failing-against-trump-and-netanyahus-wall/00000199-7043-daea-adff-7fe34ed90000> 
the Saudi–Pakistan defense deal, seeing it as a show of force after 
Riyadh failed to influence Trump or West Asian policy.

As Syed notes, “The traditional ‘Oil for Security’ framework, which once 
defined US relations with the Middle East [West Asia], now serves as a 
remnant of a bygone era. As Saudi economic power increasingly reinforces 
China's backing of Pakistan, India may feel vulnerable and isolated.”

Mark Kinra, an Indian geopolitical analyst with a focus on Pakistan and 
Balochistan, tells /The Cradle/ that this development holds particular 
significance for India. New Delhi, he argues, has sustained robust 
economic and diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia for many years, and the 
influx of Saudi investments in India continues to expand:

    “India will be meticulously observing the progression of this
    agreement, particularly given that its specific terms are not
    publicly available. Any alteration in the regional security
    equilibrium may influence India's strategic assessments, energy
    security, and diplomatic relations.”

As Washington’s selective security guarantees falter and Israel 
escalates unchecked, Persian Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are looking 
eastward for credible deterrents and strategic autonomy.

By aligning with nuclear-armed Pakistan, Riyadh is asserting greater 
independence from the western military order. It also signals the 
emergence of a multipolar Persian Gulf security architecture –one 
increasingly shaped by Global South coordination, not western diktats.

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