[News] Geopolitics, Resistance and the Battle for Venezuela

[Anti-Imperialist News]

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Geopolitics, Resistance and the Battle for Venezuela
------------------------------

By Cira Pascual Marquina on November 23, 2025

*A Conversation with political theorist Atilio Borón provides a
comprehensive analysis of Washington’s new military activity in the
Caribbean and how to resist it.*

*With US warships stationed off Venezuela’s coast and a new regional
right-wing bloc forming under Washington’s tutelage, the Western hemisphere
is entering a volatile phase. Yet today’s confrontation unfolds in a world
very different from the one that allowed the US to dictate regional
politics with little resistance in the past. China’s rise, the return of
progressive governments in key countries, and projects like the Bolivarian
Revolution challenged US power. In this changing landscape, few analysts
have been as persistent or as lucid as Argentine Marxist thinker Atilio
Borón.*

*Here, Borón offers a broad and urgent reading of the current escalation:
why Venezuela remains a strategic target, how Washington is trying to
reorganize the continent, and what lessons can be drawn from Hugo Chávez’s
political and pedagogical legacy. His analysis covers both the dangers of
the present moment and the strengths that could prevent a wider military
attack from the empire.*

*How do you understand the current continental situation and specifically
Washington’s recent military build-up and attacks in the Caribbean?*

Latin America has long been described as a continent in dispute, and today
that dispute is sharper than ever. The region has become the most important
arena in a global contest in which the United States is trying to reassert
control to oppose new actors that are gaining ground.

For decades, Washington largely relied on soft power to manage the
hemisphere. What we are witnessing now, however, is an open display of
brute military force. I would even dare say—although this deserves deeper
study—that this is the largest imperialist air-naval military buildup in
our region since the October 1962 Missile Crisis.

Why? Because the world system is undergoing a dramatic transformation.
There is no returning to the global landscape of fifteen years ago. New
actors have emerged with decisive weight, fundamentally reshaping
geopolitics. Take China: in the late twentieth century and even at the
start of this century, US strategists hardly took it seriously. I recall
attending a major international seminar in Buenos Aires in the late 1980s
where US economists projected that China would only begin to matter around
2030. History has proved them spectacularly wrong.

Let’s look at the numbers. In 2000, total trade between Latin America and
the Caribbean with China was about $12 billion a year. By 2005—the year the
US-led Free Trade Agreement of the Americas was defeated in Mar del
Plata—that figure had already jumped to $50 billion. By 2024, according to
the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean [ECLAC], it had
reached approximately $538 billion. This alone helps explain why US foreign
policy today can be summarized in three words: *keep China out.*

But the problem for Washington is that keeping China out is no longer
possible. China is already the main trading partner for Brazil and Chile,
likely for Colombia as well, and the second-largest for Mexico and
Argentina. And globally, China maintains significant economic ties—through
trade, investment, or both—with more than 140 countries. *China is here to
stay.*

India also has a growing presence in the region, though with a lower
profile, while Russia plays a role in infrastructure and defense projects
in several countries. All of this is unfolding in a region that is
extraordinarily rich in natural resources—resources the United States
desperately needs.

Take the case of rare earth minerals. Roughly 80% of known global deposits
are in China, and China controls close to 90% of the world’s processing
capacity. Some Latin American countries have smaller reserves, and
Washington is now scrambling to secure access to them in Chile, Argentina,
Brazil, and even Venezuela.

*How does this new global balance of power affect Washington’s strategy in
Latin America and the Caribbean today?*

First, it’s important to understand the new situation in the region. Unlike
the early 2000s, when progressive governments confronted the imperialist
order openly and in a relatively unified bloc, today the landscape is more
mixed. There was indeed a conservative reflux, but the old status quo was
never fully restored, and new progressive dynamics have emerged.

Mexico now establishes cautious but meaningful limits to US pressure. For
the first time in 200 years, Colombia has a popular government under
Gustavo Petro. Honduras is governed by Xiomara Castro, and her party’s next
candidate, Rixi Moncada, is leading the polls. Venezuela continues to
resist in ways few expected, despite the enormous weight of unilateral
coercive measures <https://venezuelanalysis.com/sanctions-kill/>, while
Cuba remains a beacon for the region.

Washington is desperately trying to assemble a new anti-Venezuela,
anti-Cuba, anti-Nicaragua axis. It leans heavily on figures such as
Argentina’s Javier Milei, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, and the narco-linked
Daniel Noboa in Ecuador.

This is what’s behind what some are calling a kind of “mini-FTAA”: a draft
free-trade agreement between Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,
and, of course, the United States. But in reality, this is more than a
trade agreement. It is an imposition. Of its nineteen restrictive
provisions, sixteen are US demands. Consider the absurdity of allowing the
export of live cattle from the United States to Argentina, a country whose
very identity is tied to its cattle industry.

But beyond this desperate attempt to pry open markets, Washington’s real
objective is straightforward: lithium, rare earth minerals, and
hydrocarbons. Everything else is secondary.

*Why does Venezuela remain a central target for Washington, and what
explains the US’s new military escalation?*

Venezuela has always been considered a high-priority security concern for
the United States. Historically, US oil corporations played a decisive role
in exploiting Venezuela’s oil fields. However, that changed after Hugo
Chávez came to power, and later, these companies lost even more ground as a
consequence of the US’ own blockade against the country.

Today, global oil markets are more strategic than ever, and geological
surveys confirm that Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/infographics/subsoil-bonanza-venezuelas-natural-resources/?swcfpc=1>
in the world… greater even than those of Saudi Arabia!

These reserves have an additional strategic advantage: they are just four
to five days away from US refineries, compared to roughly thirty-five days
from the Persian Gulf. This means shipping is cheaper and safer, especially
given that the US maintains around forty military bases overseeing the
Caribbean. With such advantages at stake, it is no surprise that the
Bolivarian Revolution’s nationalization of the oil industry and its
affirmation of national sovereignty proved intolerable to Washington.

The United States has tried every conceivable means to break Venezuela: the
2014 and 2017 *guarimbas <https://venezuelanalysis.com/tag/guarimbas/>*;
the unilateral coercive measures that have killed tens of thousands; the
farce called “Juan Guiadó”—famous only for its absurdity—which nonetheless
enabled the theft of Venezuelan assets such as Citgo
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/tag/citgo/>; and now the disgraceful Nobel
Peace Prize for María Corina Machado
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/tag/maria-corina-machado>, a figure deeply
associated with political violence.

Having failed on all these fronts, Washington is now turning to military
options. Yet these, too, are extremely complex. When the US invaded Panamá
in 1989 to remove Noriega, it deployed 26,000 Marines, and it still took a
month to secure Panama City.

The idea of invading Venezuela is the stuff of pure fantasy, and US
strategists probably know it. Still, Washington might adopt an
“Israeli-style” strategy: striking critical infrastructure such as the Guri
Dam, refineries, or airports, inflicting enormous damage. Yet this approach
also has its limits: if the US intends to seize Venezuela’s oil, it cannot
destroy all of the country’s energy infrastructure in the process.

What makes the situation especially dangerous is Trump’s instability and
recklessness. His personal and legal crises—including documented links to
Jeffrey Epstein—have eroded confidence in him even among Republicans.

Given this scenario, Venezuela must call for international solidarity and
decisive political action. China, in particular, should respond to the US
naval escalation in the Caribbean by deploying its own fleet around Taiwan,
without firing a single shot. Such a move would send an unmistakable
message: aggression has consequences. If Washington attacks Venezuela
today, it will move against China tomorrow. A preemptive signal is
therefore essential, both for China’s security and for Venezuela’s.

foto: Bill Hackwell

*What is the importance of Hugo Chávez’s legacy during this time of
imperialist aggressions?*

Chávez is an extraordinary figure in contemporary history, not only of
Venezuela, but of our continent and the world. He revived the Bolivarian
legacy and the emancipatory vision of Latin America’s independence
movements, restoring the principles of national sovereignty and
self-determination at a moment when they had been gravely eroded.

One of his greatest achievements was the political education of the
Venezuelan people, carried out not only through Aló Presidente
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/tag/alo-presidente/> but through countless
public interventions and, above all, by example. This helps explain why the
popular response to the recent call for voluntary enlistment in the Bolivarian
Militia
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/opinion/millions-of-venezuelans-join-volunteer-militias-as-us-attacks-continue/>
was so massive. It is never easy to ask people to risk their lives for
their country, but Chávez—and now President Maduro—have succeeded because
the *Comandante* planted a seed that took deep root in the idea of the *Patria
Bonita*: a beloved and dignified homeland.

Today, we must do everything possible to prevent the imperialist offensive
against Venezuelan soil from being carried out. The situation is dangerous
not only for Venezuela, but for the entire continent and indeed for the
world. Pete Hegseth, the current US Secretary of War—someone with no
battlefield experience, and a figure with a record of racism and
misogyny—adds to the danger through sheer incompetence.

It’s no coincidence that Admiral Alvin Holsey, a seasoned military
professional, resigned as head of SOUTHCOM after seeing what was being
planned. Thanks to Venezuela’s preparedness, its alliances, and its global
connections, the country is far from isolated. It has important
international relations. For these reasons, I believe the worst-case
scenario can still be avoided. But if Venezuela is attacked, one thing is
certain: there will be unity and the will to defend the *Patria*.

Source: Venezuela Analysis
<https://venezuelanalysis.com/interviews/geopolitics-resistance-and-the-battle-for-venezuela-a-conversation-with-atilio-boron/>
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