[News] New Study Concludes Death Toll in Gaza Likely Exceeds 100,000

[Anti-Imperialist News]

palestinechronicle.com
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/new-study-concludes-death-toll-in-gaza-likely-exceeds-100000/>
New Study Concludes Death Toll in Gaza Likely Exceeds 100,000November 25,
2025
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Israeli forces killed and wounded over 100 Palestinians in renewed
airstrikes on Gaza. (Photo: social media, via QNN)

*By Palestine Chronicle Staff
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/writers/palestine-chronicle-staff>*

According to the researchers’ calculations, approximately 27 percent of the
dead are likely to be children under the age of 15, with approximately 24
percent being women.

The current death toll in the besieged Gaza Strip likely exceeds 100,000,
with life expectancy in 2024 having fallen “to nearly half” the level
expected outside of Israel’s military onslaught, the results of a new study
<https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12963-025-00422-9> revealed.

The study was conducted by a research team from the prestigious Max Planck
Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) based in Germany and the
Barcelona-based Centre for Demographic Studies (CED).

“Using a pseudo-Bayesian modeling approach, the study estimated that 78,318
(70,614-87,504) were killed in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and the end of
2024 as a direct result of the conflict,” a press release from MPIDR
stated. “In a subsequent analysis conducted after publication, the authors
found that by October 6, 2025, the number of conflict-related deaths in
Gaza had likely surpassed 100,000.”

It said the researchers developed an approach “to analyze the impact of the
war” on mortality, incorporating and propagating the large uncertainty
surrounding the available data on the current conflict in Gaza.
Several Sources

The statement noted that Ana C. Gómez-Ugarte, Irena Chen, together and
their colleagues based their estimates on data from several public sources,
including the Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH), the Israeli Information
Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories (B’Tselem), the United
Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the
United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN-IGME)
and the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS).

“The tension between data limitations and the demand for meaningful metrics
was the impetus for this study. We demonstrate that these challenges do not
have to be mutually exclusive,” Gómez-Ugarte stated.

“Our goal is to estimate life expectancy and the losses in life expectancy
caused by the Gaza conflict in Palestine in a way that accounts for
incomplete or sparse data,” she added.

The researcher also noted that as a result “of this unprecedented
mortality, life expectancy in Gaza fell by 44% in 2023 and by 47% in 2024
compared with what it would have been without the war—equivalent to losses
of 34.4 and 36.4 years, respectively.”
Demographic Patterns

The study also found that the age and gender distribution of violent deaths
in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2024, closely resembled
the demographic patterns observed in several genocides documented
<https://data.unicef.org/resources/understanding-the-age-sex-patterns-of-crisis-deaths-towards-a-more-standard-mortality-estimation-approach/>
by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN
IGME).

“As genocide is a very specific legal term, certain additional criteria
must be met for it to be applicable. This was not the focus of this study,”
the press release stated.

Gómez-Ugarte explained that ‘Our estimates of the impact of war on life
expectancy in Gaza and Palestine are significant, but probably represent
only a lower limit of the actual mortality burden.”

She added, “Our analysis focuses exclusively on direct, conflict-related
deaths. The indirect effects of war, which are often greater and more
long-lasting, are not quantified in our considerations.”
Previous Findings, Mortality Estimates

The team based their research upon previous findings and calculated
detailed mortality estimates, the Anadolu news agency reported, adding that
the team analyzed men and women, as well as different age groups,
separately.

This approach not only produces more precise overall figures, but it also
enables detailed differentiation of who died, the report stated. The
accuracy of death records varies by gender and age; women are counted less
frequently than men. Official statistics frequently fail to include deaths
among people over the age of 60.

According to the researchers’ calculations, approximately 27% of the dead
are likely to be children under the age of 15, with approximately 24% being
women.

The researchers have also calculated the impact of the war on life
expectancy in the Gaza Strip.

Before the genocidal war, it was 77 years for women and 74 for men. For
2024, the demographers project a figure of 46 years for women and 36 for
men, the Anadolu report noted. This is initially only a statistical value,
it added.

The figures indicate that if Israel’s military operation continues
indefinitely, as it has in recent years, Palestinians will only reach this
average age, the report added.
Indirect Effects of Genocide

The researchers stated in the report that “beyond the methodological
uncertainty captured in our model, it is also important to acknowledge that
our estimates do not capture the broader and potentially greater burden of
indirect conflict mortality.”

“While our estimates of the impact of the first year of war on LE (life
expectancy – PC) in Gaza and Palestine are substantial, they are likely to
represent a lower bound of the true mortality burden,” the report stated.

The researchers noted that their analysis focused exclusively on direct
conflict-related deaths.

“However, the indirect effects of the war–often larger and more
prolonged–remain unquantified in our estimates,” they stated.

The report said that Gaza’s population “was already highly vulnerable
before the war,” with approximately 80 percent experiencing forced
displacement and facing chronic shortages of medical supplies and
healthcare.
‘Unprecedented Humanitarian Crisis’

Since October 2023, a convergence of factors–including indiscriminate
destruction of civilian infrastructure, mass displacement, the collapse of
public services, and severe restrictions on humanitarian access and funding
“has triggered an unprecedented humanitarian crisis,” the report noted.

Over 90 percent of the population has been forcibly displaced and
approximately 85% of hospitals, housing, and schools have been destroyed,
it added.

This destruction and the imposed restrictions, the report continued, have
resulted in acute shortages of food, clean water and essential medical
services.

“The crisis has been further compounded by disease outbreaks, the erosion
of public order–including reports of social unrest. These conditions are
expected to amplify excess mortality well beyond the toll of direct
conflict deaths,” the report concluded.
Gaza Health Ministry Figures

According to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, the death toll has risen to 68,858
with 170,664 injuries since October 7, 2023.

Since the US-brokered ceasefire came into effect on October 11, 226
Palestinians have been killed and 594 injured.

Anadolu reported that various research teams have previously determined
that the Ministry of Health tends to be conservative in its counting. It is
now well-documented that more people died in the past two years than the
official figures indicate, the news agency stated. Different studies
consistently arrive at a high number of unreported deaths.

The Ministry of Health only counts confirmed deaths, for example, those
with a death certificate from a hospital. Since many hospitals had to cease
normal operations during Israel’s genocidal assault on Gaza, the ministry
now also uses death notifications from relatives; a panel then verifies the
information. Victims buried under the rubble of bombed-out buildings, for
instance, are often not recorded, the report added.

*(PC, Anadolu)*
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