[News] There Is No Such Thing as a Quick U.S. War on Iran
Anti-Imperialist News
news at freedomarchives.org
Wed Jun 18 19:35:32 EDT 2025
Almost a week after Israel launched an unprovoked military offensive
against Iran, the Trump administration is on the verge of sending U.S.
aircraft to join the fight directly.
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There Is No Such Thing as a Quick U.S. War on Iran
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Murtaza Hussain <https://substack.com/@mazmhussain>
Jun 18, 2025
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aftermath of Israel’s strike on an Iranian state media building in
Tehran on June 16, 2025. (Photo by NIKAN/Middle East Images/AFP via
Getty Images)
Almost a week after Israel launched an unprovoked military offensive
against Iran, the Trump administration is on the verge of sending U.S.
aircraft to join the fight directly. Speaking on Wednesday morning to
reporters at the White House, in response to a question about whether
the U.S. was preparing its own strikes against Iranian nuclear
facilities in support of Israel, President Trump replied, “I may do it,
I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”
On Wednesday afternoon, Trump repeated to reporters in the Oval Office
that he hadn’t made a decision on striking Iran—repeating the claim,
contradicted by U.S. intelligence assessments, that Iran is weeks away
from a nuclear weapon.
The Israeli government has demanded U.S. assistance in destroying Iran’s
fortified nuclear facility at Fordow. On Friday, Israeli Ambassador to
the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told Fox News that "the entire operation...
really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow.” Israeli
officials have argued that only the U.S. military has munitions capable
of targeting effectively, particularly the 30,000 lb. Massive Ordinance
Penetrator (MOP) bomb. The Iranians also maintain another major nuclear
facility at Natanz which has already been hit by Israeli strikes, but
which is less fortified than Fordow. The MOP bunker buster bombs are
even larger than MOABs—which Trump bragged about using in Afghanistan in
2017 to target a tunnel complex allegedly used by ISIS.
Israel has framed the U.S. entering the fray as a way to bring its
conflict with Iran to a quick conclusion. But, absent an Iranian
diplomatic capitulation, a U.S. attack would likely only be a prelude to
a much longer and drawn-out military engagement with Iran. A U.S. war
with Iran focused on stopping Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,
rather than beginning and ending with the destruction of Fordow, would
need to extend to a much broader campaign of searching for and
destroying new and undisclosed nuclear sites across the country,
particularly as Iran is likely to respond to an attack by diverting
nuclear equipment to other sites across its vast territory.
Iran has built a sprawling civilian nuclear program with thousands of
scientists and a large number of critical sites. A war aimed at stopping
a nuclear weapon would need to be long and expansive, potentially even
including a ground component to search for undisclosed sites and verify
the level of damage from air attacks. In addition to internal pressure
from Iranian elites to rework the program to develop a bomb following
the Israeli assault, the country is also now facing public pressure to
do the same in response to attacks believed to have killed hundreds of
civilians.
Despite their statements about the nuclear program and desire for U.S.
help in addressing it, Israeli officials have been open that their own
objectives are much broader. In recent days, Israeli officials have
suggested that their real aim is U.S.-supported “regime change” in Iran,
or even the wholesale partition and destruction of the country itself,
for which Tel Aviv would require U.S. military assistance over an
extended period. The campaign is the culmination of a decades-long
effort by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the
neoconservatism movement and would succeed in pinning the U.S. into a
conflict with Iran that is opposed by the non-interventionist faction of
Trump’s MAGA base.
“There are many people who claim a U.S. attack against Iran’s nuclear
program would be quick and easy, but a lot of this is Israeli
propaganda, as they would love to see America stay in the region in a
forever war that helps underwrite their expansionism,” said Sina Toosi,
a senior nonresident fellow at the Center for International Policy
focused on Iran. “Even if the U.S. carries out a round of strikes and
Natanz is destroyed, and Fordow is heavily damaged, Iran already has
stockpiles of uranium and centrifuges elsewhere, as well as a massive
nuclear program consisting of thousands of people. You would need to
verify that they do not have a covert program, and other facilities
where they can dash for a bomb. This would become a forever war.”
In the days and weeks prior to Israel’s attacks, senior Iranian
officials stated publicly
<https://substack.com/redirect/e30c289c-758c-4e18-9ac4-783812a7b5ba?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM>that
threats against their program could result in Iran withdrawing from
international monitoring agreements and moving their enriched uranium to
undisclosed sites. On June 12, a day before the current war began, Iran
also announced
<https://substack.com/redirect/5564599c-7d09-40d1-8da6-939d6bb623ec?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM>that
it had already prepared to activate a new nuclear enrichment facility,
which they said was “already built, prepared, and located in a secure
and invulnerable place.”
In his statements on Wednesday, Trump claimed that the Iranians had
reached out to negotiate since the war began, including by potentially
sending officials to the White House, a claim that Iranian officials
furiously denied on social media, stating that, “no Iranian official has
ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House.” Instead, Iran’s
Supreme Leader said this morning, Iran would inflict “irreparable
destruction” in response to a U.S. attack on Iran—a possible reference
to expected Iranian retaliation against U.S. naval assets and military
bases in nearby Middle Eastern countries.
The current war has already been highly destructive, even before the
U.S. may become a direct party to the fighting. Damage from Iranian
attacks is subject to suppression by Israel’s military censor, and the
Israeli government has launched a wide crackdown on reporting of the
attacks. But images on Israeli Telegram channels have shown damage to
some critical military and intelligence sites, as well as infrastructure
like refineries and potentially anti-missile air defense batteries.
The Israeli government has so far confirmed at least 24 deaths from
Iranian attacks. Inside Iran, the toll has been far more severe. Death
toll estimates range from 224 to over 600 according to human rights
groups, with the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education also
reporting 1,481 wounded.
In a particularly shocking incident, on Monday the Iranian state
broadcaster was hit while live on air in an attack that killed two
people. The attack forced television anchors to flee mid-broadcast
though they returned later in the day to continue their program. The
Israeli government claimed responsibility for the attack, with Israeli
defense minister Israel Katz saying that they had hit the "propaganda
and incitement broadcasting authority of the Iranian regime."
Israeli attacks have also hit Iranian military positions outside of
major cities, including ballistic missile bases and airfields. But most
of the dead in Tehran are reported to be civilians.
Zahra Masoudi, a 40-year-old public relations officer at the University
of Tehran, was among those who lost her loved ones in the first wave of
Israeli strikes. Masoudi lived in a 14-story residential building near
Nobonyad Square in northeast Tehran with her elderly parents. Around
3:30 a.m. on Saturday, while she was out with friends, she got news on
her phone that an Israeli airstrike had hit her apartment building.
"Even in war, I never thought the bombing would reach my home... my
mother, my father," she said in a phone interview, her voice choked with
sobs, recounting her arrival at the scene after the attacks.
The bodies of her parents were not recovered from the wreckage of their
home until 9:00 a.m. the following morning.
After moving in with her aunt in eastern Tehran, Masoudi, like many
Tehran residents, is now considering moving to the relative safety of
the northern Iranian city of Gilan. Grief and shock over the attacks has
already thrown her future into question. “How does one go about this?,”
she said. “How do I go about my day without my mother’s presence or my
father's voice?”
*“Unconditional Surrender”*
In recent days, U.S. officials, including President Trump, have
suggested that they may kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, or
otherwise target ruling officials of the country in a manner aiming to
force a change in Iran’s government, or simply ungoverned chaos inside Iran.
After weeks of conflicted messaging about the topic, Trump himself has
embraced a consistently aggressive message towards Tehran in recent
days, demanding “unconditional surrender” from Iran on repeated occasions.
Trump has also pushed back against the conclusions of his own officials
who have stated that no imminent risk of an Iranian nuclear weapon
exists. Asked this week by reporters aboard Air Force One about Director
of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s testimony in March that Iran
was not building a nuclear weapon, Trump replied, "I don't care what she
said. I think they were very close.”
Iranians living inside the country have responded to the attacks and
Trump’s threats with a mixture of defiance and uncertainty over what the
future may hold for their country as it stares down the possibility of a
full-blown war led by the U.S. in the days and weeks ahead.
“There is a lot of fear and tension, but people have also come together
and are supporting each other. This includes the many liberal people who
were involved in anti-government protests two years ago, as well as more
religious people,” said Ali Ahmadi, an economist living in Tehran, who
says that he had also taken part in demonstrations two years ago sparked
by the death of a young Iranian woman who died in custody after being
arrested on charges of improperly wearing her hijab. “People are seeing
images on social media of the victims of these attacks, including
children and young women. They are seeing photos on social media of
three-year-old, and even two-month-old children who have been killed.”
The onset of the war, and the shock of the initial attacks on densely
populated residential areas of Tehran, triggered small public
demonstrations in Tehran by some protestors who demanded that the
government actually develop a nuclear weapon to defend the country from
future attacks.
While it is unclear how popular such sentiments may be at the moment,
Ahmadi says that it reflects a broader perception among Iranians that
the government had done too little to defend them against foreign
threats, whether through ineptitude or indecision, and that more drastic
measures need to be taken in future to defend their country.
“If Iran builds an ICBM after this war I would not be surprised if they
name it the ‘Rayyan’ after the name of a boy named Rayyan Qassem who was
killed in these attacks,” said Ahmadi.
Initial hopes that the conflict would remain limited to military
targets, as it had largely been in previous exchanges of fire between
the two countries, has given way to a widespread belief that Israel
along with the U.S. is potentially aiming for the wholesale destruction
of the country. In recent days, in addition to attacks against police
stations, refineries, and factories, reports have emerged of hacking
attacks against banking institutions and internet providers, alongside
other measures aimed at potentially dissolving Iran’s critical
infrastructure.
Iran has promised that it will continue to retaliate to Israeli attacks,
and has fired salvos of ballistic missiles each night in barrages that
have decreased in size since the start of the fighting. The decreases
may be attributable to increased difficulty for Iranians to fire back
while under attack by Israeli aircraft, or an attempt to conserve
resources for what they may expect to become a long war of attrition
with Tel Aviv and its allies. Israel is also reportedly running low on
missile interceptors, a factor that may constrain their ability to
continue fighting Iran without direct U.S. assistance.
A looming intervention by the U.S. would change the face of the
conflict. The U.S. military has bases across the Persian Gulf, many of
which U.S. military planners believe that Iran may target in the event
of a full-blown conflict. Iran’s missile forces include a large number
of shorter-range ballistic missiles specifically intended to strike at
Gulf Arab states, as well as U.S. bases located nearby, and these
missiles are believed to have higher accuracy than the long-range models
being fired at Israel.
Despite the loss of numerous senior IRGC officials in Israeli attacks,
alongside widespread destruction targeting military facilities, and even
core areas of the capital, Iranian officials have remained defiant in
the face of escalating threats and vowed to resist a further U.S.
onslaught. “Our enemies should know that they cannot reach a solution
with military attacks on us and will not be able to force their will on
the Iranian people,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said in a
statement issued Monday.
*“The War Came and Stole Everything”*
Despite the escalating war with a major state power in the region and
the prospect of another protracted and bloody conflict, the U.S. and
several European Union countries have signaled that they are solidly
behind Israel in its assault on Iran. During an interview at the G7
summit in Canada this week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told German
radio that Israel was doing the “dirty work,” of the international
community by attacking Iran. "I can only say I have the greatest respect
for the fact that the Israeli army and the Israeli government had the
courage to do this," Merz said.
Though France has publicly supported the Israeli attack, on the
sidelines of the same summit French President Emmanuel Macron expressed
some worry about the possibility of another war in the Middle East aimed
at toppling a government, stating that "the biggest mistake today would
be to try to do a regime change in Iran through military means because
that would lead to chaos. Macron added, "no one can say what comes next."
A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has begun pushing for legislation
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block the U.S. from becoming directly involved in the fighting.
Republican Senator Josh Hawley also offered a word of caution
<https://substack.com/redirect/8614e60a-3d9c-4481-8d18-772e005d9098?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM>,
telling a reporter, “I don’t want us fighting a war. I don’t want
another Mideast war.... I’m a little concerned about our sudden military
buildup in the region.”
Despite these misgivings, at present there is no sign of an off-ramp to
a war that may only be in its early stages.
While leaders trade reciprocal threats and gear up for further
escalation, for ordinary Iranians like Ali Masoud, the cost of the war
has already become deeply personal. Masoud lost his fiancée, the Arabic
language professor at the University of Tehran, in the same building
where Zahra Masoudi lived. She had been living in one of the upper-floor
apartments, preparing for their wedding.
"I was counting down the days until we could start our life together.
Now... I don’t know what’s left," he said. Ali had just finished
furnishing a small apartment for them. Every evening, she would call to
share details of her day. On the night of the attack, the phone never rang.
After the Israeli attacks hit, he reached the site and stood frozen
before the mangled wreckage of what had once been a large apartment
complex. Smoke rose from the rubble, thick with dust and the smell of
concrete and fire.
"I was dreaming of children, of ordinary mornings," he said. "But the
war came and stole everything."
/Mahmoud Shaban contributed reporting from Tehran. This article is
published in collaboration with Egab
<https://substack.com/redirect/27586947-1b97-4a08-addb-1c5b99487f74?j=eyJ1IjoibHZwcGIifQ.9RIwWbE6EVIB7Jy8lfazxZKfps8R18neRGMKwOiqnRM>./
**
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