[News] Gaza’s ceasefire caught in a political minefield

[Anti-Imperialist News]

 Gaza’s ceasefire caught in a political minefield

With violations mounting and mediation on shaky ground, the latest prisoner
exchange between the Palestinian resistance and the occupation state may be
the calm before a new storm.

The Cradle's Palestine Correspondent
<https://thecradle.co/authors/the-cradles-palestine-correspondent-68>

FEB 17, 2025 -
https://thecradle.co/articles/gazas-ceasefire-caught-in-a-political-minefield
Photo Credit: The Cradle

The handover of the sixth batch
<https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/15/israeli-captives-story> of
Israeli prisoners from Gaza, numbering three, exchanged for 369 Palestinian
detainees on 15 February, proceeded “smoothly.” Contrary to US President
Donald Trump’s dire warnings
<https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-hamas-israel-gaza-ceasefire-all-hell-break-out-un-gutteres-rcna191620>
that “all hell is going to break out” if all remaining Israeli prisoners
were not released by the end of the week, the deal held – for now. But the
precarious march through a political minefield is far from over.

*First mine: Fragile mediation *

Palestinian resistance forces initially stepped back, allowing Egyptian and
Qatari mediators, with Turkiye in the background, to assume the role of
“guarantor.” Yet, sources within the resistance inform *The Cradle* that
any failure to uphold commitments will not only reset their stance but
harden it further.

According to the sources, the decision to delay prisoner handovers
originated in Gaza, particularly at the military level, while political
leaders abroad viewed negotiations with more optimism. Meanwhile, newly
emerging military and political figures have been instructed to go back
into hiding – a sign of uncertainty.

Mediation remains fraught with roadblocks, including the occupation state’s
refusal
<https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/no-caravans-heavy-machinery-entered-gaza-local-authorities/3482533>
to allow desperately needed mobile homes or heavy machinery for the rubble
removal into Gaza, fearing they could be repurposed for weapons
manufacturing. Instead, higher-cost wooden mobile homes, funded by Qatar,
were proposed, yet at the time of writing, not a single one of the promised
60,000 has been delivered.

The resistance had warned that it would not hand over the prisoners if Tel
Aviv did not abide by the terms of the agreement. However, it chose to give
mediators time while documenting at least 269 Israeli violations over 23
days, including:

As of now, the resistance has secured 53,147 tents out of the 200,000
agreed upon – each with an iron mast to withstand winter storms. Aid truck
deliveries have risen to approximately 800 daily, retroactively covering
the backlog from the 24-day period when only 500–600 entered daily. Yet,
this meets only 50 percent of the promised aid.

Hamas originally planned to delay the fifth exchange to pressure Israel
into allowing more tents, mobile homes, food, fuel, and other essential
supplies, but when occupation forces hadn’t fully withdrawn from the Netzarim
corridor
<https://thecradle.co/articles/israeli-troops-begin-withdrawal-from-strategic-netzarim-corridor-in-gaza>,
they postponed the move to ensure this critical objective was met.

*Second mine: Trump's strategic ambiguity*

In an attempt to avoid appearing weak, Trump threw a curveball at the
occupation government, declaring his demand was for the release of all
prisoners, not just batches of three. Now, Tel Aviv must decide whether to
push forward or stall, while Trump, in typical fashion, claims he will
stand behind any decision Israel makes.

Is this mere rhetoric, an attempt to shift responsibility, or a calculated
step to accelerate the deal and take credit for brokering it? Either way,
Hamas remains unfazed.

After weeks of Israeli stalling, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally
agreed to facilitate talks on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire
agreement, following phone calls with US envoy Steve Witkoff. Netanyahu had
initially avoided setting a date to review Israel’s stance on the second
phase negotiations, but decided on Sunday night to hold discussions on
Monday. His decision to convene a Cabinet meeting came after Witkoff’s
intervention, marking a shift in Israel’s approach. However, in light of
the fact that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has been threatening to
collapse Netanyahu's coalition if the ceasefire deal is completed, Israel’s
state broadcaster reported Monday that Netanyahu assured Smotrich that
second phase negotiations would not begin without Cabinet approval. It
remains unclear what new conditions or obstacles Tel Aviv may introduce as
talks move forward.

The resistance group's sources tell *The Cradle* that the blockade's
tightening and Israeli violations of the agreement aim to turn public
frustration against the movement. But as one Hamas leader puts it, “If
there must be confrontation, let it be with the occupation as we are still
in a state of war.”

Between 14 and 16 February, Israeli public opinions and statements were
conflicting. The far-right demanded war, while more “moderate” voices
insisted on completing the exchange. Protests
<https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/hundreds-of-israelis-protest-in-tel-aviv-demand-completion-of-hostage-deal/3477890>
surged in the streets, amplified by Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic
Jihad’s (PIJ) strategic decision not to release entire settler families
together – keeping some prisoners behind to fuel uncertainty and pressure
from the Israeli public on the government.

Hours after the latest handover on 16 February, Israel resumed committing
violations
<https://thecradle.co/articles/israel-unserious-about-moving-forward-with-gaza-ceasefire-hamas>:
airstrikes targeting aid workers in Rafah killed four, delays stalled the
travel of the 14th batch of medical patients, and authorities refused entry
for mobile homes and heavy machinery needed for rebuilding efforts.

Despite the ceasefire agreement taking effect three weeks ago, Israel has
only allowed four heavy-duty vehicles into Gaza so far – even though at
least 500 are needed. It also blocked construction materials for hospital
repairs and barred Turkish aid trucks unless Turkish logos were removed.

*Third mine: The ‘Day After’ plan*

The most dangerous obstacle looms ahead: Trump’s long-term vision for Gaza
<https://thecradle.co/articles/trump-acquits-israel-shifts-gaza-problem-to-arabs>,
which Netanyahu echoes as his “new plan for the day after.” Hamas suspects
the entire prisoner exchange is a deceitful scheme organized by Tel Aviv
and Washington – an excuse to secure the release of hostages before
resuming the war and carrying out forced displacement. For this reason,
Hamas sees no need to continue the exchange.

However, Israeli and Arab discussions suggest that Trump's remarks were a
deliberate shock tactic not necessarily meant to explode the situation but
rather to push all parties toward compromise and a future settlement – one
whose first condition is unconditional normalization
<https://thecradle.co/articles/the-saudi-israeli-normalization-delusion>
between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which very much depends on the upcoming
meeting between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).

Resistance factions are not only concerned with outright forced
displacement but also with “alternative solutions” and pressure tactics
being used by the occupation forces, such as suffocating restrictions,
prolonged destruction, and delays in reconstruction that could push
Palestinians in Gaza into voluntary migration. Internal Hamas estimates,
which remain unpublished, suggest that a third of Gaza's youth are
considering leaving at the first opportunity.

Meanwhile, the “alternative solution” being floated is riddled with
dangers. Egypt’s reconstruction plan appears to cater more to US and
Israeli interests than to Gaza’s social and economic realities. Washington
proposed a phased reconstruction plan beginning with clearing Gaza’s rubble
– projected to take three to five years – followed by rebuilding efforts
that will last for another five to 10 years. Cairo, on the other hand,
proposed building quick-fix cities in Gaza’s empty areas before addressing
the destruction.

The Egyptian proposal, however, raises concerns: most of these empty lands
are in central and southern Gaza (Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat, Bureij, Maghazi,
and Khan Yunis), while the northern governorates – where most of the
destruction took place – have no open land. This effectively shifts Gaza’s
population away from the border with Israel, aligning with Tel Aviv’s
longstanding goal of depopulating northern Gaza.

Further mines lurk in the reconstruction details, such as Israeli-imposed
urban planning measures that insist on wider spacing between buildings and
roads, similar to its post-2002 rebuilding of the Jenin Refugee Camp
<https://news.un.org/en/story/2002/07/40752> with UAE funding. Hamas has
also detected a calculated delay in rebuilding schools and universities –
prioritizing housing instead – to suppress youth activism and resistance.

*Hamas’s ‘Day After’ doctrine *

In the broader power struggle, linking Gaza’s reconstruction to a
US-aligned Arab coalition, which would likely involve the perfidious
Palestinian
Authority
<https://thecradle.co/articles/in-the-west-bank-another-gaza-genocide-unfolds>
(PA), threatens to stifle the resistance’s influence. Hamas and the PIJ
have made it clear: any force attempting to replace Israel in Gaza will be
treated as an occupying power and fought accordingly.

Speaking at the Al Jazeera Forum in Doha, Hamas political bureau member
Osama Hamdan iterated the movement’s own ‘Day After’ stance: “We will not
accept to pay the price of an imagined defeat.” He stressed that Hamas
refuses to be sidelined despite being open to discussing power-sharing.
Regarding Trump’s threats, Hamdan asserted that shock tactics would not
work against the resistance movement.

For Hamas, Gaza is just one part of a larger struggle – the Palestinian
cause, which includes the West Bank and Jerusalem, remains a central
concern for the resistance. While halting bloodshed remains the immediate
priority, Hamas insists that Operation Al-Aqsa Flood
<https://thecradle.co/articles/al-aqsa-flood-delivered-the-final-nail-in-the-coffin-of-the-israeli-occupation-abu-obeida>
must remain the guiding objective. Securing Gaza alone while abandoning the
broader battle could risk the end of the entire Palestinian cause.
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