[News] Israeli-UAE Aggression In Yemen Could Backfire Enormously – Analysis

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Israeli-UAE Aggression In Yemen Could Backfire Enormously – Analysis
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Ansarallah military spokesman, Yahya Saree. (Design: Palestine Chronicle)

*By Robert Inlakesh
<https://www.palestinechronicle.com/writers/robert-inlakesh>*

No matter which way you slice it, the US and Israel have no answer for the
predicament they face in Yemen. The only option is to try and keep the
nation in perpetual war.

Although the Yemeni Armed Forces have halted their ballistic missile and
drone attacks against Israel, adhering to the Gaza ceasefire, officials in
Tel Aviv are continuing to insist that their front against Sana’a is not
over.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) backed Southern Transitional
Council (STC) has been busy seizing territory from Saudi-backed forces and
signalling an intent to declare southern Yemen’s independence. Far from
simply domestic disputes between armed groups, these developments will have
major regional implications.

On December 3, the STC seized Hadramout province from forces aligned with
Saudi Arabia, followed by a takeover of al-Mahra province. The UAE-backed
separatists even went a step further, with a number of officials declaring
their intent to break away and declare southern Yemen an independent state.

For context here, the UAE and Saudi proxies in Yemen were operating a joint
governing body out of southern Yemen’s port city of Aden. For years, the
Saudi-led coalition had attempted to prop up deposed Yemeni President,
Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, with the backing of the US, UK, and Israel. Hadi was
therefore referred to as the “internationally recognised” leader of the
Yemeni State, when in reality he had no such power.

Despite the glaringly obvious fact that Ansarallah had set up and was
operating a government in the nation’s capital, enjoying a lot of popular
support, the United Nations continued to play along with the West’s demands
to recognise Saudi’s puppet proxy regime. In 2022, Riyadh then created what
is known as the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), which was endowed
with the powers of the Presidency and serves as the “internationally
recognised government”.

The head of the PLC is a man named Rashad al-Alimi, who is an unelected
leader and is part of the eight-member body. As of May 2023, three of the
eight seats in the PLC were handed to officials belonging to the UAE-backed
STC, which recently ran Saudi-backed officials out of Aden.

The STC’s recent territorial gains have posed an active security threat to
Saudi Arabia and Oman, deepening the ongoing feud between Abu Dhabi and
Riyadh. The UAE, for its part, also appears to have been sizing up an
offensive campaign against Ansarallah at some stage, as it acts in
coordination with the Israelis.

The recent developments in Yemen have triggered anxiety amongst Zionist
analysts in Washington, as they see a UAE-Saudi conflict in Yemen between
their proxies as detrimental to the fight against Ansarallah in Sana’a. In
line with this way of thinking, the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy (WINEP) recently published a Policy Analysis piece arguing that such
a UAE-Saudi conflict should be avoided and instead both should focus on
Ansarallah.

It is clear that the primary goal of the Israelis is to see their Emirati
allies use the STC to try and seize the port city of Hodeidah, thus
securing dominance over the Red Sea. This is important to Tel Aviv as it
means weakening the Yemeni Armed Forces and preventing them from being able
to effectively impose a blockade on their ships. Israel even pushed the
Trump administration to launch a war in Yemen for over a month in an
attempt to break the blockade in the Red Sea, which resulted in resounding
failure.

The Zionist think-tank WINEP has warned that any conflict between Saudi
proxies and Emirati proxies could open the door for Ansarallah’s forces to
seize the oil-rich region of Marib, a major catastrophe for the Israelis
and Americans. Yet, so far, no UAE-Saudi understandings appear to have come
about to find any solution to their competition in Yemen.

Instead, the major agreement that was just brokered came between the Yemeni
government in Sana’a and Saudi Arabia, the largest prisoner exchange deal
since the beginning of the war. This meant agreeing upon the release of
1,700 Ansarallah detainees in exchange for 1,200 opposition prisoners.

Another important clarification is that the Ansarallah government is often
labelled “the Houthis” in the Western media, and the Saudi proxy opposition
is called the “Yemeni government”. This can sometimes get confusing, but it
is important to point out that this propagandistic rhetoric is used to
shape the conflict in a way that reflects Western bias, not the objective
reality on the ground.

Some will try to argue that the Saudi proxy opposition is the
“internationally recognised government” according to the United Nations,
which is true, but again, this has little bearing on the reality on the
ground. There simply aren’t enough powerful States or even smaller nations
that are willing to bat for recognising the government in Sana’a, therefore
the West and their Arab allies have managed to prevent any reflection of
reality reaching the United Nations or even the international media.

At this phase, the UAE’s STC appears to be in control of the majority of
opposition-held territory in Yemen, greatly undermining Saudi Arabia’s
role. However, the STC is not exactly a movement with the popular support
to sustain and operate a lasting, or stable, southern Yemeni State. The STC
has faced countless protests against their rule, after failing to deliver
even basic services to the people living under its control. Blatant
corruption, combined with criminal activities and a lack of basic governing
skills, has left people with very little. Even in the Hadramout and
al-Mahra provinces, there is significant opposition that could lead to
their swift overthrow.

Amidst this, if the STC decides to commit to offensives against the Yemeni
Armed Forces of Ansarallah, the strategy to defeat the UAE-proxy forces is
rather simple. Ansarallah will not only most likely batter these armed
militants on the ground, but need only direct drone and missile fire
towards the real headquarters of the STC, Dubai. If ballistic and cruise
missiles, along with drones, flood Dubai and Abu Dhabi, the Emirati plot
will quickly collapse.

When it comes to Saudi Arabia, it is a much larger nation and has the
capacity to endure a lot more than the much smaller Emirates, making Riyadh
a more formidable foe than Abu Dhabi. If the STC proxy forces become the
main opposition and Saudi Arabia can no longer maintain any significant
foothold in Yemen, the recipe for Yemeni unification becomes much simpler.

A war between Ansarallah and the STC has a very easy solution: flooding the
UAE with missiles and drones for a sustained period, which will force them
to give up and depart from Yemen. If this happens, Riyadh will have no
choice but to reach a broader agreement with Sana’a, effectively ending the
war altogether.

In the eyes of the Israelis and the United States, this outcome would be a
catastrophe. If Ansarallah, even under a power-sharing styled agreement,
reigned supreme over all of Yemen and became its officially recognised
leadership, it would significantly increase its power and pose an even
greater threat to Israel. In Tel Aviv’s eyes, this would be Iran 2.0 in the
Arab World, an Islamic government that is openly hostile to Israel and a
staunch supporter of the Palestinian resistance.

No matter which way you slice it, the US and Israel have no answer for the
predicament they face in Yemen. The only option is to try and keep the
nation in perpetual war, tightening the sanctions and ensuring immense
suffering amongst its civilian population, all to avoid the inevitable rise
of an Ansarallah-controlled Yemeni State, equipped with a military arsenal
that will continue to develop.

*(The Palestine Chronicle)*


*– Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer, and documentary filmmaker. He
focuses on the Middle East, specializing in Palestine. He contributed this
article to The Palestine Chronicle. *
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