[News] Hezbollah and the escalation ladder

Sat Jul 27 23:15:24 EDT 2024

english.almayadeen.net
<https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/hezbollah-and-the-escalation-ladder>
Hezbollah and the escalation ladder
David Miller
July 27, 2024
------------------------------

It is clear that the period since October 7 has molded the Axis of
Resistance into a functioning regional military entity.
[image: c944859e-9836-47c7-887c-603ab6d73187.jpg]

   - With Hezbollah on the border, there is a clear concern for the future
   of the entity (Illustrated by Batoul Chamas; Al Mayadeen English)

What is the risk to the Zionist entity in the event of attacking Hezbollah
and invading Lebanon?

According to a Zionist think tank, the Institute for "National Security
Studies", with close links to the security establishment, the risk is very
significant.

A report from the think tank
<https://www.inss.org.il/publication/homefront-north/> issued on 7 July
this year was titled "How Would a Full-Scale War with Hezbollah Affect the
Resilience of Israel’s Civilian Front?"

It turns out to be very depressing for supporters of Zionism. In summary, it
anticipates <https://www.inss.org.il/publication/homefront-north/> “severe
damages expected in such a war to Israel’s civilian home front and its
functional continuity, and consequently to the resilience of Israeli
society and its ability to recover from the war.“ It doesn’t quite envisage
the collapse and end of the Zionist regime, but there is a clear concern
for the future of the entity.

Let’s look at the main points of the report.

●     It admits that more than 60,000 settlers have been forced to evacuate
28 separate settler colonies and the settlement of Kiryat Shmona, near the
Lebanese border. The settlers are being accommodated at government expense
elsewhere.

●  It states that “so far, Hezbollah has launched more than 5,000
high-trajectory and direct-fire projectiles toward civilian and military
targets in Israel," and “above all”, it says “there is a growing sense of
futility regarding the future of the northern border."

●     It says the 5,000 missiles fired so far are only just over 3% of
Hezbollah’s estimated armory, and some estimates put their stock of
missiles and drones much higher.

It goes on to state that Hezbollah’s arsenal consists of “at least 150,000
missiles, rockets, and other lethal weapons, including hundreds of
precision-guided medium- and long-range missiles, covering Israel’s entire
populated areas. These include cruise missiles, ballistic missiles,
advanced coastal anti-ship missiles, thousands of UAVs and other drones,
and precise short-range anti-tank missiles."
[image: 09b74b49-3f0e-4d2b-ac13-7eec9ac57f29.jpg]

   - Israel Occupation Forces graphic from 2016 showing that Hezbollah
   missiles can reach way beyond the territory of occupied Palestine. Source
   <https://free.messianicbible.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Hezbollah-map-en-2-21-1024x1024.jpg>

This arsenal, they write “can cause massive fatalities and critical
national infrastructure destruction to civilian and military targets in
Israel.”

In a full-scale war with Hezbollah, they say that “not all … can be
intercepted,” and they “could overwhelm” air defenses. This “represents a
military and civilian threat that Israel has never experienced.”

Laughably, however, the report claims that there have been only 29 civilian
and military fatalities as a result of this. Hezbollah claims more than
2,000 military operatives have been eliminated.
[image: a167e2d1-8057-4002-9f1b-7866f0e00ae2.jpg]

While the onslaught in Gaza continues,s the INSS say that "Israel" should
not attack Lebanon. Whatever happens, they say, “There should be
significant coordination of expectations with the public.” So far, they
conclude “no steps have been taken to prepare the public for this severe
scenario."

The military establishment in the settler colony is scared of being
defeated by Hezbollah.

   - [image: The CSIS, a Washington DC base think tank historically very
   close to the CIA gives its assessment. Source]
   <https://alpha-en-media.almayadeen.net/media/image/2024/7/27/7e47d21c-6824-4853-b600-6b22181db763.png?width=1000>
   The CSIS, a Washington DC base think tank historically very close to the
   CIA gives its assessment. Source
   <https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/180705_Williams_HezbollahMissiles_v3.pdf>[image:
   7e47d21c-6824-4853-b600-6b22181db763.jpg]

Hezbollah and the Axis of Resistance

>From the outside, it seems incomprehensible to many why Hezbollah and the
other elements of the Axis of Resistance don’t just actively target and
collapse the whole Zionist entity. Even Zionist think tanks appear to
suggest that Hezbollah alone may be capable of such a feat.

The answer is the escalation ladder.

While it is plain that the various elements of the Axis of Resistance are
not proxies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is also clear that the
period since October 7 has molded the Axis of Resistance
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/14/irans-axis-of-resistance-is-a-potent-coalition-but-a-risky-strategy>
into a functioning regional military entity. The fact that all of these
many groupings work together is increasingly recognized internationally.

It was claimed in 2021 <https://english.almanar.com.lb/1352914> that
officers from Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps coordinated
the military confrontation in Gaza in that year. The center certainly
involves Hamas, and we can assume that Saleh al-Arouri, the recently
murdered Hamas leader in Beirut, participated. It is also reported that as
many as 12 Palestinian factions also participated.

Additionally, it seems likely that there is information and intelligence
sharing with the government of Syria, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and
of course the Yemeni Armed Forces under Ansar Allah. Recent reports
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25901> indicate that “the Armed Forces of
Yemen… have established a communication and coordination office in Iraq’s
capital, Baghdad.” Sanaa’s forces “announced their first joint operation
with the IRI on 6 June. The operation
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25316> targeted weapons shipments in the
port of Haifa. The second operation <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25577>,
announced later that month, also targeted vessels in the port of Haifa, as
well as in the Mediterranean Sea.”

The creation of a formidable and quite new regional army has been a
remarkable achievement of the Zionist genocidal strategy in Gaza.

Since October 7, the so-called escalation ladder has involved very
significant restraint from Hezbollah. All of the data on the military
struggle show first that the Zionists have expended much greater firepower
and confined themselves to a far wider geographical area, not to mention
extensively targeting civilians. Hezbollah has by contrast focused almost
exclusively on military targets and within a 5km distance of the border.
[image: c735ad33-3d03-4b02-ac27-6e344cc96bfe.jpg]

The strategy of Hezbollah has been to systematically destroy the Zionists'
<https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2024/05/17/hezbollah-blinds-israeli-defences-with-drone-strike-on-sky-dew-airship/>
vast array of espionage equipment rendering the occupation forces blind
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/25351> and making it much easier for
Hezbollah (or others) to target the north and other areas of the interior
of the occupied lands
<https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israeli-officials--jaws-drop-over-hezbollah-s-complex-operat>
.

Escalations from Hezbollah
<https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/gaza-hezbollah-israel-war-ghaziyeh-escalation/>
have only occurred when Zionist provocations called for increased
deterrence.

Two examples are when Hezbollah deliberately responded to take out Iron
Dome batteries
<https://www.newarab.com/news/hezbollah-footage-shows-successful-hit-israels-iron-dome>,
following a Zionist escalation, in order to show that they could do it at
will.

A second response
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mAq9-7NlV4&ab_channel=TRTWorld> was the
fire bombings that set large areas of the northern occupied lands ablaze.

Psychological warfare tactics have included circulating three long clips of
footage
<https://en.mehrnews.com/news/216664/VIDEO-Hezbollah-s-drone-footage-over-occupied-lands>
filmed by Hezbollah drones at close range over scores of Zionist military
installations and bases. The drones have been dubbed the HudHud.

The more recent responses to Zionist escalations hold out the prospect of
further significant escalatory exchanges, which will seriously challenge
the stability of the Zionist entity.
[image: 09b74b49-3f0e-4d2b-ac13-7eec9ac57f29.jpg]
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