[News] Could unmanned submarines be a gamechanger for the Ansar Allah movement

[Anti-Imperialist News]

middleeasteye.net
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-gaza-could-submarines-be-gamechanger-houthis>
Could unmanned submarines be a gamechanger for the Houthis?
By Alex MacDonald
February 25, 2024
------------------------------

For several months now, Yemen
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/yemen>'s Ansar Allah movement
(more commonly referred to as the Houthis) has managed to bring much of the
traffic in the Red Sea to a halt.

Using mainly cheap drone technology, the Houthis have provoked fury in
western capitals over their disruption of maritime traffic, and despite a
fierce military response from the US and UK, the group has pledged to
effectively make the seas of the Middle East no-go areas for Israel and its
supporters as long as the bombardment of Gaza continues.

As they continue to step up their operations, the group have unveiled a new
addition to their arsenal: submarine technology.

"We introduced the submarine weapons into the confrontation in the Red Sea,
and it is a weapon that will worry the enemy," Yemen's Al-Masirah TV
channel quoted Abdulmalik al-Houthi as saying on Thursday.

That same day the group warned shipping insurers and firms that any
Israel-flagged vessels or ships wholly or partially owned by Israelis would
be banned from the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea.

According to Reuters, statements sent to shipping insurers from the
Houthi's Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center - which the group
established to monitor passage of non-prohibited shipping - also said that
vessels owned by US or British individuals or entities, or sailing under
their flags, were now banned.

What does this new addition to the Houthis' arsenal mean for their ongoing
operations in the region?
Cheap and effective

Last week, the US said it had launched five strikes against Houthi mobile
anti-ship cruise missiles, as well as an one unmanned underwater vessel
(UUV) and one unmanned surface vessel (USV).

So far, the Houthis have not gone into any detail about the technology, and
much of the analysis is speculative, with many quick to point the finger at
the group's ally Iran, which does manufacture naval drones.

According to a report
<https://news.usni.org/2024/02/19/houthi-lethal-underwater-drones-adds-new-threat-to-red-sea>by
the US Naval Institute, the photographs released by the US military last
week showed "a propeller (screw) section that is consistent with UUVs used
by Iran".

'I think there is a lot, unfortunately, that they will surprise us with'

*- Farea Al-Muslimi, Chatham House*

"The UUV, along with those seen in Iran, appears similar to a torpedo or
one-way attack underwater drone (OWA-AUVs)," said the report.

"Generally, these have a greater range than a torpedo but are slower,
making them most effective against static targets such as ships in port or
at anchor."

The fundamental benefit of UUVs is that they are considerably less easy to
detect as well as being substantially cheaper than missiles.

A naval drone previously publicised by the Ukrainian government - used to
sink Russian ships in the Black Sea - reportedly cost $250,000, which the
BBC described <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66373052>as "cheaper
than many types of long-range missiles".

Earlier this month, a Ukrainian naval drone, with a payload capacity of
320kg of explosives, reportedly struck a Russian landing ship in the Black
Sea, sinking it.

The remote-controlled drones, which are highly manoeuvrable and limit the
loss of human life, have been hailed
<https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/05/europe/ukraine-drone-jet-skis-russian-warship-intl/index.html>for
allowing Ukraine to punch above its weight compared to the more militarily
advanced Russians.

Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, told Middle East Eye
that the Houthis clearly did not come into possession of the technology
overnight and its revelation was strategically timed.

"We haven't seen even half of the Houthi capabilities in submarine
technology," he said. "I think there is a lot, unfortunately, that they
will surprise us with."
Expected impact

Alberto Rizzi, a visiting fellow and associate researcher at the European
Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said that Ukraine had already proven
the potential threat posed by such drones.

"They can hit ships in more vulnerable parts and are much more difficult to
intercept and target, making them a serious threat to tankers or cargo
vessels," he explained.

"However, undersea and surface drones are much more complex than aerial
ones to develop and build and, although Iran has some capabilities in this
domain, it is unlikely that the Houthis have wide numbers of them in their
arsenal."

The impact of the Houthis' Red Sea operations is already being starkly felt.

According to the Suez Canal Authority chief, revenue from Egypt
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/egypt>'s Suez Canal dropped by
almost half in January following the beginning of their attacks.

'Technological developments are bringing down the economic and technical
threshold to manufacture drones that can be employed against ships'

*- Alberto Rizzi, ECFR*

The official said that income had dropped to $428m in comparison to $804m
for the same period in 2023 and that the number of ships navigating the
canal fell by 36 percent.

The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), meanwhile, said global
shipping costs
<https://news.sky.com/story/shipping-costs-are-more-than-300-up-as-suez-shipping-crisis-deepens-13046610>
were up more than 300 percent as a result of the Houthi blockade.

Muslimi said that "perception" was as important as anything else, and that
even if the US and UK air strikes actually harmed the Houthis, companies
and insurers had already effectively written-off the route for the
foreseeable future.

"Yemen is 44 times bigger than Lebanon and the maritime is huge. It's
really easy to make an eruption there," he explained. "It doesn't take a
rocket scientist to make a rocket any more."

With the death toll in Gaza close to 30,000, there is no indication that
the Houthis plan to stop their operations.

As such, Rizzi suggested that the new naval drones were unlikely to have
much immediate impact since those routes were increasingly being avoided
anyway.

Nevertheless, it could easily point the way forward for other groups
wanting to leverage comparatively low military strength against more
powerful enemies.

"Sea routes, despite their apparent simplicity, are extremely complex and
vulnerable: technological developments are bringing down the economic and
technical threshold to manufacture drones that can be employed against
ships," he said.

"This makes other armed groups in proximity of maritime chokepoints a
future danger, as they can draw inspiration from the Houthis and carry out
similar attacks elsewhere."
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