[News] As Ramadan approaches, Israel threatens war on Lebanon

[Anti-Imperialist News]

 As Ramadan approaches, Israel threatens war on Lebanon

The reckless US–Israeli attempt to forcibly move Hezbollah far from its
border risks driving the region into a full-on war, which neither Tel Aviv
nor Washington could hope to manage. And they're picking this fight as the
holy Muslim month of Ramadan approaches.

Khalil Harb <https://thecradle.co/authors/khalil-harb>

FEB 19, 2024 -
https://thecradle.co/articles/as-ramadan-approaches-israel-threatens-war-on-lebanon
Photo Credit: The Cradle

Tel Aviv's mounting threats to destroy Beirut as it has done to Gaza,
coupled with growing Israeli public support
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23436> for aggressive military action
against Lebanon, have spiked tensions on the northern battlefront in recent
days.

Furthermore, the precarious game at play in Washington – which has done
absolutely nothing to impede Israeli occupation forces from launching an
assault on Rafah and uprooting more than a million Palestinians from their
last refuge on the Egyptian border – is driving the war to a volatile,
dangerous brink.

Adding fuel to this already incendiary mix are two critical factors. First,
Israel's targeted strikes on Lebanese civilians, exemplified by the recent
attacks in Nabatiyeh <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23272> and
Al-Sowanah, have provoked a stern response from Hezbollah Secretary-General
Hassan Nasrallah, who vowed retribution, declaring
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/23471> that "the price of civilian blood
will be blood."

Second is the approaching month of Ramadan, a sacred period observed by
hundreds of millions of Muslims worldwide, which adds a transnational
dimension to these developments. Fasting Muslims from Indonesia to Morocco
will grow increasingly frustrated with Washington's inaction in preventing
genocide and the displacement of over two million Palestinians in Gaza,
many of whom are on the brink of starvation
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/19677>.

*Escalations will lead to an exodus *

Despite US assurances that it is pressuring Israel to mitigate casualties,
the relentless onslaught has resulted in an appalling daily death toll
<https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67764664> of around 300, with
nearly 29,000 lives lost, and over 60 percent
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231120-hamas-israeli-attacks-targeted-60-per-cent-of-residential-units-in-gaza/>
of
homes and infrastructure decimated.

When Nasrallah declared that "for every drop of blood shed in Gaza and the
entire region, the primary responsibility falls on [US President Joe]
Biden, [US Secretary of State Antony] Blinken, and [US Secretary of Defense
Lloyd] Austin," his words resonated deeply – not only within the Islamic
world but with millions globally – calling for an end to the war by halting
the influx of American weapons to the Israeli military.

The US State Department has received multiple warnings from diplomats in
the region of the growing resentment toward Washington for its complicity
in Israel's genocidal campaign. Despite its tone-deaf attempts to adjust
its stance and emphasize a need to protect Palestinian civilians, the
regional backlash threatens to undermine US diplomacy, unravel Arab
normalization deals with Israel, and jeopardize US business interests
<https://thecradle.co/articles/west-asian-chains-profit-from-regional-boycott-of-western-brands>
 throughout West Asia.

Speaking to *The Cradle*, sources close to the Axis of Resistance in
Lebanon said the next fortnight carries the potential for a catastrophic
escalation, particularly if Israel intensifies its military aggression
during Ramadan and advances its plans to displace Palestinians from Rafah.

Additionally, the discontent among Israeli settlers displaced by Lebanese
resistance operations along the northern border poses further risks, with
officials in Tel Aviv contemplating drastic measures
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/18019> to ensure calm, including
potential military action – a preview of which southern Lebanese civilians
have recently witnessed.

The discontent among northern settlers grows as they grapple with the new
security dynamics in the aftermath of the Hamas-led Al-Aqsa Flood operation
on 7 October. Extending over 100 kilometers from Naqoura to the Shebaa
Farms and penetrating 5 to 10 kilometers deep, this border strip has seen
the displacement of thousands of settler families.

*Israel wants Hezbollah purged from its border  *

Despite stern warnings from senior Israeli officials to restore "calm"
along the northern frontier – including Energy Minister Eli Cohen's pledge
<https://twitter.com/elicoh1/status/1736380733533413549> that "if this
threat is not removed diplomatically, we will not hesitate to take military
action" – the situation remains fraught.

A poll by the Hebrew newspaper *Maariv* showed that 71 percent
<https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/303402-maariv-poll-71-of-israelis-in-favor-of-operation-against-lebanon#:~:text=Maariv%20poll%3A%2071%25%20of%20Israelis%20in%20favor%20of%20operation%20against%20Lebanon,-by%20Naharnet%20Newsdesk&text=A%20poll%20published%20by%20right,scale%20military%20operation%20against%20Lebanon.>
 of Israelis believe Israel should launch a large-scale military operation
against Lebanon to keep Hezbollah away from the border. At the same time,
the Israeli military leadership is acutely aware of the significance of
Nasrallah's statement on 13 February, when he insisted that the settlers
fleeing from the north "will not return" and that Israeli officials should
"prepare shelters, hotels, schools and tents for *two million people*."

In two consecutive speeches, Nasrallah stressed that "only stopping the war
on Gaza will stop the Lebanon front." And he reminded Israelis that since
1982 they would respond militarily when a mere Lebanese bullet or Katyusha
rocket would hit its areas, but now – despite more than 2000
<https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/02/06/hezbollah-rocket-attack-wounds-two-israeli-soldiers/>
rocket
strikes by the resistance against critical Israeli targets – Tel Aviv has
been unable to escalate to a full-scale war.

A Lebanese political source informs *The Cradle* of Israel's dual strategy:
while exerting military pressure through direct raids on southern Lebanon
to instill fear, the occupation state also pins hopes on western diplomatic
overtures to Beirut. Their aim? To force the removal of Hezbollah, not just
from the border, but from regions beyond the Litani River.

*Hezbollah won't budge from western pressure *

Nasrallah recounted a telling anecdote from discussions with western envoys
– all singularly focused on the goal of pushing Hezbollah north of the
Litani. Faced with this onslaught of illogical demands, a Lebanese official
quipped, "It's easier to relocate the river to the border than to push
Hezbollah north of it."

In short, even pro-west Lebanese officials understand the impossibility of
this ambition.

The recent statement by US chief energy diplomat Amos Hochstein merely
confirms what Hezbollah already knows: Washington's aim is not to end the
conflict but to manage it <https://en.royanews.tv/news/49376/2024-02-17>.
Western engagements with Beirut, according to the political source, amount
to little more than message transmission, primarily conveying Israel's
demands and threats rather than facilitating genuine mediation. This lack
of earnestness in addressing the gravity of the situation in southern
Lebanon has not gone unnoticed.

Even Prime Minister Najib Mikati, known for his calm demeanor, expressed
frustration with this superficial approach, stating
<https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/lebanese-prime-minister-says-calm-in-lebanon-requires-cease-fire-in-gaza/3107465>
 on 12 January:

We informed all the international delegates who visited Lebanon that
talking about a truce in Lebanon only is illogical … a ceasefire be reached
as soon as possible in Gaza, in parallel with a serious ceasefire in
Lebanon.

In this context, another political source reveals the contents of a
document presented by France to Lebanese officials, proposing a ceasefire
on the border and the formation of a monitoring committee comprising US and
French representatives alongside Lebanese and Israeli delegates.

However, it also outlines a three-stage process: ceasefire, withdrawal of
resistance fighters and their military assets 10 kilometers north of the
border, and subsequent negotiations aimed at establishing a resistance-free
buffer zone.

*The US and Israel face a critical choice*

Nasrallah takes such proposals with a pinch of salt, emphasizing instead
that any negotiations must center on the core principle of liberating
Lebanese territory currently occupied by Israel. Hezbollah's response to
such diplomatic overtures is to be expected. Why would it concede anything
when it is causing its enemy unprecedented pain and is, for the first time
ever, coordinating its military efforts with multiple resistance
battlefronts in West Asia, including Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq?

Sources close to the resistance say recent remarks
<https://www.arabnews.com/node/2460361/amp> by Israeli Defense Minister
Yoav Gallant that his forces had deliberately bombed Beirut have made
Nasrallah conclude that Tel Aviv's recent targeting of civilians in
Nabatiyeh, Sowanah, and Adshit "was deliberate and not a mistake."
Moreover, it is an Israeli attempt to violate the rules of engagement in
place since 1992, which if not upheld, can change the military game
considerably for Israel – to its detriment, as well as Lebanon's. For
starters, the Hezbollah leader has promised a strong response on the
frontlines, targeting the enemy directly rather than "targeting sites, spy
devices, and vehicles."

Informed sources who spoke to *The Cradle* say that the US and Israel will
be forced to make some critical choices in the next two weeks, not only as
the month of Ramadan approaches, but also because Tel Aviv has now crossed
the line of military "proportionality" by targeting Lebanese civilians and
inviting escalation.

Their most perilous move may be for Israel to launch a war on Lebanon – and
Hezbollah specifically – which will prompt the Axis of Resistance to
recalibrate its region-wide strategies.

This recalibration could manifest through several avenues: intensification
and resilience of the Lebanese resistance, breaking the fragile truce
<https://thecradle.co/articles-id/21328> by Kataib Hezbollah and its Iraqi
resistance allies to strike broader US targets, Syria assuming a more
prominent role, adjustments in the direction and potency of Yemeni missile
attacks and drone operations <https://thecradle.co/articles-id/17195> (beyond
the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden), and shifts in Iran's power centers toward
favoring confrontation – which would be a major deviation from its regional
approach over the past four months.

Such shifts could occur if the gaze of Netanyahu and Biden shifts firmly
towards the north.
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