[News] The Gaza war is lost: But will Netanyahu concede?

[Anti-Imperialist News]

middleeastmonitor.com
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231009-the-gaza-war-is-lost-but-will-netanyahu-concede/>
The Gaza war is lost: But will Netanyahu concede? by Dr Ramzy Baroud
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/6-author/178473/>- October 9, 2023
------------------------------

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had often boasted about the
readiness of his army to deal with and to eliminate all threats to Israel’s
‘security’.

The Israeli military, too, has contributed to the Israeli hasbara that Tel
Aviv would be able to face several threats on all fronts, from Gaza, to the
West Bank, to Lebanon and Syria.

But the Hamas attack on numerous Israeli targets on Saturday at precisely
6am Palestine time, proved him utterly and humiliatingly wrong. Neither
Netanyahu, nor his army were in fact able to face a single Palestinian
group, operating alone and under siege.

It will take time for all of this to sink in among Israeli leaders,
military brass, media, and society. For now, however, Netanyahu is
desperate to show that Israel remains a powerful country and a regional
power that deserves its often-touted status of having an ‘invincible’ army.

But all his options are nearly impossible.

*Read MEMO’s live blog on the situation on the ground*
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231007-israel-palestine-escalation-live-al-qassam-brigades-launch-operation-tuphon-al-aqsa/>

It was obvious that Hamas, and later the Islamic Jihad, were keen on
capturing as many Israelis – both soldiers and settlers – as possible.

Doing so means creating a new line of defence that would limit the Israeli
military response and would eventually force Israel to negotiate.

But what the Palestinian resistance wants from Netanyahu is too high a
price for the embattled prime minister to pay.

Statement after statement, starting with that of Al-Qassam Brigades’ top
commander, Mohammed Deif – followed by Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s
political bureau, and later Ziyad Al-Nakhalah of the Islamic Jihad .. –
showed that the Palestinian demands are both clear and precise:

Freeing all prisoners; respecting the sanctity of Palestinian holy sites in
Jerusalem, ending the siege on Gaza
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180810-what-everyone-should-know-about-israels-siege-of-the-gaza-strip/>
and more.

Or, else.

[image: The resistance unleashes the ‘Floods of Al-Aqsa’ campaign after
Israel’s continued targeting of Palestinians, their homes and religious
sites - Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]]

The resistance unleashes the ‘Floods of Al-Aqsa’ campaign after Israel’s
continued targeting of Palestinians, their homes and religious sites –
Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]

Those demands, although should be considered reasonable, are nearly
impossible for Netanyahu and his far-right government to meet. If he
concedes, his government will quickly collapse, sending Israeli politics
once more into another tailspin.

Either way, that collapse seems imminent.

The extremist Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir almost
completely disappeared from the political scene. That is an important
development.

Indeed, one of the achievements of the resistance in Gaza is marginalising
such notorious characters, who acted with impunity against unarmed
Palestinian civilians in Jerusalem, at Al-Aqsa Mosque, even in Israel’s
many prisons.

But a new coalition in Israel would complicate Netanyahu’s mission even
more.

The cabinet has already declared a state of war, and potential new
ministers want Netanyahu to commit that he must link that declaration of
war to ending Hamas. Forever.

This is the first real Gaza war, they say. They also want it to be the last.

But if Netanyahu carried on killing civilians in Gaza, through air strikes
and shelling, as he and other Israeli leaders have done in previous
military operations, neither Hamas, nor any other group would be eliminated.

The Palestinian resistance is too careful to present themselves as easy
targets for Israeli warplanes, drones and snipers. Their operations are
conducted almost entirely underground.

It follows that destroying the resistance would require a massive land
invasion.

*Watch: Palestinians break through Israel’s Gaza fence & cross into
pre-1948 areas
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231008-palestinians-break-through-israels-gaza-fence-cross-into-pre-1948-areas/>*

Not only has the resistance anticipated all scenarios, including the land
incursion, but an invasion of Gaza would surely lead to thousands of
Israeli deaths; let alone, the harvesting of tens of thousands of
Palestinian lives.

Moreover, the Israeli soldier has proven incapable of fighting a ground
battle. Hamas has shown that in recent days, as Hezbollah in Lebanon
demonstrated the same fact as well, in 2000 and, again in 2006
<https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180712-remembering-israels-2006-war-on-lebanon/>
.

But even if we assume that Israel will be able to carry out such an
invasion, what will it do once Gaza is conquered?

In 2005, the Israeli army escaped from Gaza because of the intense
resistance throughout the Strip. It evacuated its forces and quickly
redeployed, circulated Gaza from all directions, thus the notorious siege
of today.

The resistance back then was much weaker, less organised and far less armed
than it is now.

If Israel takes charge of Gaza again, it will have to fight that same
Palestinian resistance daily, and possibly for years to come.

It is unclear what direction Netanyahu will choose. But either way, no
matter what will happen in the coming days and weeks, Israel has, in many
ways, lost the war.

Let that sink in.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not
necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
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