[News] What’s behind Israel’s latest offensive in Jenin and what does the future look like?

[Anti-Imperialist News]

middleeasteye.net
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/palestine-israel-jenin-offensive-analysis>
What’s behind Israel’s latest offensive in Jenin and what does the future
look like?
By Lubna Masarwa in Jerusalem and Nadda Osman in London
July 3, 2023
------------------------------
[image: image.png]
An Israeli army bulldozer drives through Jenin in the occupied West Bank
during a military operation on 3 July (AFP)

Large parts of the occupied West Bank city of Jenin
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-jenin-west-bank-large-scale-offensive>were
covered in rubble on Monday morning, following an Israeli
<https://www.middleeasteye.net/countries/israel>offensive that has killed
at least eight people.

Over 80 people have so far been wounded in the ongoing attack, with
ambulances unable to reach casualties due to destroyed roads and buildings.

Officials in Jenin have described the attack as one of the worst in years,
with one spokesperson at the Jenin Governmental Hospital comparing the
level of destruction to Israel’s attacks on the city in 2002.

As part of it's Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank, Israeli forces
in April 2002 launched a 10-day attack on Jenin which resulted in the
killing of over 52 Palestinians.

During the offensive, where over 150 tanks, fighter jets and armed forces
descended onto civilian areas in Jenin, medical help and essential supplies
were prevented from entering the city, while the Jenin refugee camp was
shelled.
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Peter Bouckaert, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch who was involved
in investigating the offensive, described the attack at the time as
"extremely serious" and said that "some cases appear to be war crimes".

However, experts say there are some notable differences between today’s
offensive and attacks in previous years.
What’s driving the offensive and why now?

Footage of the operation showed hundreds of armoured vehicles and soldiers
taking part in the operation, which has also included raiding homes and
arresting people.

Army bulldozers were seen razing homes and streets, leaving piles of rubble
across Jenin.

Tariq Ziad, a journalist from Jenin, said the current offensive differs
from the operation in 2002, during the Second Intifada.

"In 2002, Israel knew that invading would lead to the collapse of the
Palestinian Authority, and at the time it wanted to eliminate the PA
because it considered that Yasser Arafat was part of the resistance," he
told Middle East Eye.

[image: jenin]
Palestinian youths run for cover amid Israel's offensive on Jenin (AFP)

[image: image.gif]According to Ziad, Israel is no longer interested in the
collapse of the Palestinian Authority.

Instead, he said, the motivation behind the offensive is more so to target
the growing armed resistance in Jenin, such as the Jenin Brigades.
Sending a message to resistance groups

Sari Abu Nasr el-Din, a writer and political analyst, said Israeli forces
caused widespread levels of destruction, hitting the camp's infrastructure,
electricity, water and phone lines.

Nasr el-Din, who lives in a neighbourhood close to Jenin, said Monday's
offensive targeted homes that were used to house members of the Jenin
Brigades.

'The occupation wants to show that this destruction is the result of anyone
who supports the resistance'

*- Sari Abu Nasr el-Din, political analyst*

“[Israeli forces] struck Jenin refugee camp from all areas, using some of
the tactics used in 2002. There have been dozens of injuries.”

Nasr el-Din said one of the main reasons behind the offensive is targeting
resistance groups that Israel accuses of carrying out several attacks.

“Another reason is to send a message to people about housing members of the
Brigade and solidarity with them. The occupation wants to show that this
destruction is the result of anyone who supports the resistance,” he said.

“There are also political reasons behind the offensive, some of it has been
made public, some of it you have to read between the lines.”
Other cities to rise up

Palestinian armed resistance groups have previously called for direct
confrontations against Israeli occupation forces, and have garnered
widespread support across the West Bank and Gaza.

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad group said in a statement that “all options
are open to strike the enemy in response to the aggression in Jenin.”

Awni al-Mashni, an activist and member of the consulting council for the
Fatah movement, said the offensive in Jenin might eventually cause other
Palestinian cities to rise up and resist the occupation.

[image: jenin]
Smoke billows above a residential area of Jenin during Israel's offensive
(AFP)

[image: image.gif]“What is happening is expected, this is how the
relationship is with the occupation forces - civilians reject occupation
and the occupation imposes themselves by force,” he said.

Mashni believes that the offensive could signal the beginning of a
different reality on the ground.

“Israel’s offensive on Jenin will not end in it becoming a peaceful city
under the Israelis, this is a delusion,” Mashni told Middle East Eye.

“What is more likely to happen is for other Palestinian cities to end up
like Jenin.

“The same thing will happen in the West Bank, and also take place in
Qalqilya, Tulkarem, Nablus, Ramlallah, Hebron and Bethlehem, and the people
will continue to resist.”

Mashni said that following today’s offensive, the resistance in cities like
Jenin will only get stronger.

“They will have a bigger role now, they will have stronger morale,” he
added.
Reaction from Gaza and Lebanon

Experts say the coming days are critical, and will determine how severe -
if at all - the reaction will be from both inside Palestine as well as from
Lebanon.

According to Ziad, today’s offensive is different from 2002 due to the
potential of a reaction from Gaza and Lebanon.

'The amount of people killed will determine how this operation will go and
the response to it'

*- Tariq Ziad, Journalist*

“The amount of people killed will determine how this operation will go and
the response to it,” he said.

“If there is a lot of bloodshed, Gaza will intervene.”

“In 2002, there were 73 martyrs, so now I don’t think that Gaza is going to
wait for the numbers to reach 73 again.”

So far, there has not been a response from Gaza or Lebanon, but their
reaction in previous years is making Israel think twice before carrying out
long and large-scale attacks.

“This government wants to wipe Palestinians from the face of the earth, but
the resistance in Gaza will make them think hard before taking any actions
that would trigger a response,” said Ziad.

Nasr el-Din believes that today’s offensive could trigger a reaction from
Palestinians, both organised and sporadically by individuals, in the West
Bank and aimed towards settlers.

“What happens next depends on the actions of the occupation forces,” he
says.
What does the future look like?

The military attack on Jenin has continued for over 12 hours, with no signs
of it ending any time soon.

Eyewitnesses and local journalists have described the situation on the
ground as one of the worst they have seen since the 2002 invasion.

With no signs of the tensions waning, some predict that the events could
potentially continue on, and even spill out into other cities.

According to Almashni, the resistance in Jenin will expand to other cities
and the Palestinian Authority’s power in the West Bank will gradually
weaken.

“Eventually the occupation will come to terms with the fact that their
tactics can not continue,” he says.

“In my opinion, this is the start of a changed behaviour from Palestinian
people, this is a normal reaction from them and the occupation will not
last long in the West Bank.”
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