[News] Threats of Military Intervention Against Venezuela - US Disregard for International Law Is a Menace to Latin America
Anti-Imperialist News
news at freedomarchives.org
Thu Sep 20 11:12:04 EDT 2018
https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14060
US Disregard for International Law Is a Menace to Latin America
By Nino Pagliccia - Sep 20th 2018
------------------------------------------------------------------------
International Community Principles
At the 25th U.N. session of October 1970, the General Assembly adopted a
resolution titled 'Declaration on Principles of International Law
Concerning Friendly Relations and Co-operation Among States in
Accordance with the Charter of the United Nations
<http://www.un-documents.net/a25r2625.htm>.' Not too many people would
know that, therefore I think it is important to remember what those
principles are (emphasis added):
* The principle that states shall refrain in their international
relations from the /threat or use of force against the territorial
integrity or political independence of any state/or in any other manner
inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.
* The principle that/ states shall settle their international disputes
by peaceful means/in such a manner that international peace and security
and justice are not endangered.
* The principle concerning the /duty not to intervene in matters within
the domestic jurisdiction of any state/, in accordance with the Charter.
* The duty of states to co-operate with one another in accordance with
the Charter.
* The principle of /equal rights and self-determination of peoples/.
* The principle of /sovereign equality of states/.
* The principle that states shall fulfill in good faith the obligations
assumed by them in accordance with the Charter.
The OAS Charter has similar principles.
I have often criticized the U.N. for being ineffective and I still stand
by that. I am going out on a limb by saying that the more 'principles'
and 'resolutions' the U.N. issues, the more military interventions,
invasions, terrorist actions, incitation to violence, wars, and of
course punitive economic sanctions have occurred in the last 40 or more
years.
However, I must clarify that a world organization like the U.N. is
necessary, albeit one that should be radically modified to really live
up to its promise stated in the principles listed above. At least one
principle should be essential: the principle of sovereign equality of
states.
But I don't think I am going out on a limb when I say that only one
country, among the 193 U.N. member states, stands out as having
committed consistently and relentlessly the large majority of
international infractions: the United States.
Many of its infractions are clearly apparent. Many others occur behind
the cover of 'diplomacy,' such as incitement to rebellion and coups,
bribery and corruption. Often, the U.N. and other international bodies,
including embassies, are the preferred venues for fomenting subversion.
It is not unusual that this type of unlawful activity would also be
'delegated' to some so-called civil society organization or NGO.
Today we are seeing blatant examples of U.S. unlawful behavior to the
point that it is a serious menace to Venezuela and the rest of Latin
America.
Overcoming Sanctions
I have already referred to the U.S. sanctions and their connection to
the U.S.-centered financial system in the context of the recent monetary
conversion in Venezuela
<https://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Venezuelas-Monetary-Revolution-Vis-a-Vis-Economic-Sanctions-20180808-0023.html>. But
unilateral U.S. sanctions have become the economic version of an
epidemic. Cuba, Russia, Iran, Syria, and North Korea are current targets.
It is to be noted that the United States and other countries have
consistently issued sanctions against Venezuela every time the Maduro
government has undertaken important policy measures, the last one being
issued on May 21 a day after Nicolas Maduro was re-elected president.
What is striking this time is that after the major monetary revolution,
initiated by the Maduro government on Aug. 21, not a single new sanction
has been issued. Surprisingly, one can say that U.S. sanctions stand out
for their absence. This can have two possible interpretations.
The immediate one is that the Venezuelan monetary conversion, pegging
their currency to the largest Venezuelan oil resources through the
cryptocurrency Petro, is successfully rendering sanctions avoidable to a
certain extent, and therefore less effective economic weapons. The
United States dollar may be losing its thunder as the world's reserve
currency with the consequent weakening of the U.S. financial system that
is at the core of economic sanctions.
Other countries threatened by U.S. sanctions like Iran and Iraq are
taking notice and are considering similar monetary policies dropping the
dollar in their bilateral trade transactions. China and U.S.-sanctioned
Russia are also increasing their financial interaction away from the
dollar
<https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/287735-expulsar-dolar-mercado-asiatico>. The
president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was more adamant, declaring:
"Now we have to gradually end the domination of the dollar
<https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/287339-erdogan-acabar-dominio-dolar>once
and for all by using national money among us."
Even some opposition economists foresee that a more independent
Venezuelan economy
<http://sakerlatam.es/america-latina-y-el-caribe/analisis-informal-de-las-medidas-economicas-adoptadas-en-venezuela/> will
free itself of the crippling foreign-induced inflation
<http://www.simpatizantesfmln.org/blog/?p=56528>. And this can only lead
to a healthy recovery in terms of availability of essential products.
The prospect of economic recovery is quite real, as suggested by the
positive response of the Venezuelan private sector. But a more
encouraging sign is the willingness of many Venezuelans, who had left,
to return home and are now receiving logistical support from the Maduro
government to come back. We are seeing a 'migration crisis' myth destroyed.
This scenario will not only be a bad example for other nations, but it
will also destroy other myths to justify a regime change in Venezuela
such as 'humanitarian crisis.' No such thing has any real foundation, as
recently reported by the U.N. independent expert on the promotion of a
democratic and equitable international order, Alfred de Zayas, to the
39th session of the U.N. Human Rights Council
<https://chicagoalbasolidarity.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/un-report-on-venezuela-and-ecuador-alfred-de-zayas.pdf>.
Military Intervention & Proxy War
So, given that sanctions are being overcome and are not anymore, at
least for now, the weapon of choice of the United States for regime
change in Venezuela, we are left with a second possible scenario that
the United States is preparing for another course of action: military
intervention or, equivalently, a proxy war. This would be a tragic
decision and should sound an alarm to all Venezuela observers and
governments of the region. There has never been a U.S. military
intervention that has brought any positive outcome to the population
anywhere. All 'gains' are only assured for U.S. corporations.
The latest report that the United States is somehow involved in building
a Venezuelan military rebellion comes from the New York Times
<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/08/world/americas/donald-trump-venezuela-military-coup.html>:
"The Trump administration held secret meetings with rebellious military
officers from Venezuela over the last year to discuss their plans to
overthrow President Nicolás Maduro."
How is the military intervention to take place and what would the
reaction be?
If we are to learn from past U.S. interventions in other conflict zones,
the United States may not put its own troops on the ground in Venezuela,
at least initially, but more likely will provide full logistic,
intelligence and weaponry support to 'rebels.' This requires a 'rebel
force' that is so far non-existent, despite attempts to manufacture one
that gives the impression of 'hundreds' of Venezuelan military
'disaffected' with the Maduro administration.
However, in this possible scenario, infiltration attacks, including
sabotage, would come from Colombia and less likely, for now, from Brazil
due to the upcoming elections in October. But in the likelihood that
Jair Bolsonaro is the winning Brazilian candidate, Venezuela will face
two right-wing governments in the two border countries. They would be
fully-prompted by the United States to act and they would comply. The
Venezuelan border states to watch are Tachira, Zulia and Bolivar.
Ahead of an overt military intervention or proxy war, we will see an
increase in the infowar that is already being waged against Venezuela.
The current infowar is the overstated 'exodus' of Venezuelans.
One detailed study clearly shows that there is no 'migration crisis.'
<https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/287848-vecindad-incomoda-dimension-real-migracion-venezuela>
Although no conclusion can be drawn at this point about a U.S. military
intervention, the history of Latin America shows that it cannot be
excluded. It is dependent on three main conditions: the creation of a
U.S.-style 'plausible reason' to intervene (mostly done), a local real
or made-up rebel group (still underway), and enough support from a
majority of regional and international governments (not quite likely
yet). The Venezuelan representative at the U.N., Samuel Moncada, tweeted
a few days ago that the "United States is pushing Brazil, Chile, Peru
and Colombia to war, demanding to make the tough decision to start the
aggression."
This leads to the question of what the reaction in the Latin American
and Caribbean region and beyond would be.
So far, the little over a dozen countries of the so-called Lima Group
have hijacked the voice of the OAS, inciting regime change at all cost.
But that is still a minority of the 35 OAS member states.
The Trump administration must weigh its decision very carefully. Tilting
the balance towards a military intervention could create a serious
backlash in the region, not only political, but also social, with
prolonged conflicts.
Beyond the region, Washington must consider the possible reactions from
Moscow and Beijing. Russia and China have developed close economic and
business ties in Latin America and Venezuela in particular. China is now
the fourth-largest destination for Venezuelan oil.
Realistically, the most important point for the United States to
consider is the reaction of the Venezuelan people. The U.S. government
is misinforming the international community about the lack of support
for the Maduro government in Venezuela, however, it must have firsthand
information about the following facts: 1) a large majority of the
Venezuelan population is indeed a very cohesive democratic and
constitutional society; 2) Venezuela has a loyal National Bolivarian
Militia with about half a million personnel whose main function is to
'establish permanent links between the National Bolivarian Armed Forces
and the Venezuelan people, in order to contribute to ensuring the
overall defense of Venezuela.'
Concluding Thoughts
In a fair international community of nations truly based on U.N.
principles for the sake of peace, the United States would abide by the
first principle listed above: “that states shall refrain in their
international relations from the threat or use of force against the
territorial integrity or political independence of any State”. But the
United States has not and will not. Its only principle seems to be that
of exceptionalism. It is determined to suffer the isolation of a bully
state.
Unfortunately, the United States' reckless actions have consequences not
only for the 30 million people of Venezuela but also for the rest of the
region.
Venezuela has initiated a process that promises to effectively reduce
the impact of unilateral and punitive economic sanctions slapped on the
country, and begin an economic recovery process. A possible sign that
Venezuela's monetary reform may have outmaneuvered the United States is
that there have been no new sanctions against Venezuela since May from
the United States or other countries.
However, this is not a complete victory for Venezuela. A more serious
threat may lie ahead. Based on a recent report by the New York Times,
this danger has been brewing for some time, and judging by at least one
analysis, it is fast approaching in the form of a possible military
intervention
<http://resumen-english.org/2018/09/the-next-90-days-will-define-the-future-of-venezuela-and-south-america/>whose
final outcome is not clear yet.
There have been several threats from the Trump administration in the
past so it is clear that today military action against Venezuela cannot
be ruled out. Venezuela has always taken any threat to its national
security seriously and has responded diplomatically and publicly with
protests. It has just done so once again, with the stated intention of
informing public opinion that the United States is breaking
international law on top of U.N. and OAS principles.
A military intervention, direct or through proxies, will not be a
guaranteed success for the United States. The claim in the New York
Times that a "few hundred" Venezuelan troops may be disaffected is
neither credible nor sufficient to confront a loyal population as the
attempted coup against Hugo Chavez in 2002 proved. Further, it would
trigger a chain reaction of events never seen before. In this emerging
multipolar world, the involvement of Russia and China cannot be
excluded; if not militarily, at least politically.
But this is a situation where Venezuela cannot wait or hope for any
immediate help except from its own people, and it has to lean on the
side of caution. The price of misjudging the danger may be too high.
There can be no doubt that the Bolivarian Armed Forces and the National
Bolivarian Militia are on full alert and ready.
/Nino Pagliccia is a Venezuelan-Canadian activist and writer based in
Vancouver, Canada. He writes about international relations with a focus
on the Americas and is editor of 'Cuba Solidarity in Canada
<http://www.cubasolidarityincanada.ca/>– Five Decades of
People-to-People Foreign Relations.'/
--
Freedom Archives 522 Valencia Street San Francisco, CA 94110 415
863.9977 https://freedomarchives.org/
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