[News] Gaza: Is Annexation Israel’s ‘Permanent Solution’?

[Anti-Imperialist News]

31st July 2014
*http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2499454/gaza_is_annexation_israels_permanent_solution.html*


  Gaza: Is Annexation Israel’s ‘Permanent Solution’?

by OLIVER TICKELL

At this point in Israel’s unfolding war on Gaza, it’s reasonable to stop 
and ask – what is Israel’s end game?

Not it’s stated purpose, which is to stop rocket attacks from Gaza, 
destroy Hamas’s /“terrorist infrastructure”/ of/“death tunnels”/ and so 
on, and break its hold on political power in the territory – but the 
true long term, sustainable outcome it’s aiming for, the /“permanent 
solution”/ to the Gaza problem.

To answer this question, let’s look at what it is actually doing in this 
war, and what strategic purposes may underlie those actions.

*Civilian infrastructure destroyed*

Early on in the war, Israel began to target essential civilian 
infrastructure 
<http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2480165/gaza_israel_bombs_water_and_sewage_systems.html> - 
such as water supply pipes, sewage works, water pumping stations. There 
is no reason to believe that these actions were anything other than 
deliberate. Certainly Israel never apologised for them.

More recently it destroyed Gaza’s only power station 
<http://rt.com/news/176364-powerplant-israel-gaza-strike/>, and it’s now 
beyond repair. And this does rather more than just put the lights out. 
Any water pumps or sewage works that have somehow survived the bombing 
and shelling have now ground to a halt for lack of power.

As noted by Luisa Gandolfo 
<http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2499292/gaza_water_crisis_grows_as_israel_targets_essential_infrastructure.html> in 
the /Ecologist/, ”Cutting off the electricity means cutting off the life 
support to those who have a chance to survive the bombardment”. Would it 
be so extraordinary to imagine that this is, in fact, the precise 
purpose – to render Gaza uninhabitable?

*Targeting civilians*

We must also consider the numerous apparently deliberate attacks on 
civilians. Perhaps the most egregious example is the yesterday’s 
shelling of a school operated by the United Nations agency UNRWA as a 
shelter for 3,300 civilian refugees, killing 15.

Another is the bombing of an outdoor market 
<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2710397/15-Palestinians-killed-90-injured-Israeli-tank-shell-attack-UN-school-used-refugee-shelter.html>, 
which also took place yesterday, killing 17, shortly after Israel 
declared a 4-hour ceasefire. Following an initial bombing, a second bomb 
was dropped minutes later 
<http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/30/world/meast/mideast-crisis/> just as 
ambulances arrived at the scene, as CNN caught on camera.

 From a military point of view these attacks make no sense. They have 
also attracted international condemnation and have done nothing to boost 
Israel’s already low, and plummeting reputation.

So we have to ask – do the attacks serve a purpose that justifies those 
collateral costs? What if that purpose is to tell Palestinians:

    “We will kill you and you can do nothing about it. It does not
    matter who you are or where you are, even if you are under supposed
    international protection. We will kill you and we will get away with
    it. No matter what our crimes, we are untouchable.”

*Sticks and stones …*

UNRWA has spoken in unprecedently harsh terms of the attack. ”Tens of 
thousands may soon be stranded in the streets of Gaza, without food, 
water and shelter if attacks on these areas continue”, tweeted UNRWA 
spokesman Chris Gunness.

And its Commissioner-General Pierre Krähenbühl released 
<http://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/official-statements/unrwa-strongly-condemns-israeli-shelling-its-school-gaza-serious> a 
statement: ”Children killed in their sleep – this is an affront to all 
of us, a source of universal shame. Today the world stands disgraced.”

“I condemn in the strongest possible terms this serious violation of 
international law by Israeli forces … We have moved beyond the realm of 
humanitarian action alone. We are in the realm of accountability. I call 
on the international community to take deliberate international 
political action to put an immediate end to the continuing carnage.”

And therein lies the problem. The UN Security Council stands supine, 
knowing that the US will veto any attempt to hold Israel and its 
military accountable. We are not in the /“realm of accountability”/, but 
precisely where we have always been as far as Israel’s crimes are 
concerned – in the realm of impunity.

We may like to imagine otherwise, but we know the truth. Neither Israel, 
nor its soldiers, nor its commanders, not its political leaders, will 
ever have to defend their actions in this round of conflict, or face any 
kind of punishment or sanction, no matter what they do.

*In fact it’s the gas*

Now consider another dimension to the issue, already written about in 
/The Ecologist/: Gaza is valuable property thanks to its enormous 
resources of natural gas 
<http://www.theecologist.org/search.php?q=gaza+gas&offset=0&submit=Go>.

When originally discovered in 2000, Gaza’s ofshore 1.4 trillion cubic 
feet of gas reserves were valued at $4 billion. Since then the Gaza 
Marine reserve has been re-estimated to 1.6 trillion cubic feet, 
according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 
while”offshore Gaza territory may hold additional energy resources.”

Israel is approaching a severe domestic ‘gas crunch’ pending the 
development of its own deep-water Leviathan gas field. Moreover it is 
now estimated that Gaza Marine’s exploitation could yield revenues of 
$6-7 billion per year.

And one thing is clear – Israel has no intention of letting Hamas 
anywhere near that money – nor even Fatah, which runs the West Bank, on 
any terms other than those that Israel lays down. In 2007 Moshe Ya’alon, 
a former IDF chief of staff, stated 
<http://jcpa.org/article/does-the-prospective-purchase-of-british-gas-from-gaza-threaten-israel%E2%80%99s-national-security/>:

    “It is clear that without an overall military operation to uproot
    Hamas control of Gaza, no drilling work can take place without the
    consent of the radical Islamic movement.”

And needless to say, that would be entirely unacceptable.

*The international dimension*

Another factor to consider is international politics. Currently Israel 
commands overwhelming political support in the USA and Canada, and 
rather weaker support in Europe and the Arab world, where governments 
side with Israel but with fast diminishing public support.

For now, Israel get get away with its crimes, not only scot-free but to 
applause and material support. Hot on the heels of its attacks on 
‘protected’ civilians, for example, as reported on CNN 
<http://edition.cnn.com/2014/07/30/world/meast/mideast-crisis/>, the US 
decided to release stocks of munitions for Israel to continue its attacks:

    “Among the items being bought are 120mm mortar rounds and 40mm
    ammunition for grenade launchers, the [anonymous US defense]
    official said. Those will come from a stockpile the United States
    keeps in Israel, which is worth more than $1 billion.”

But this situation may not continue indefinitely. Thanks to its 
uncritical support of Israel, America’s standing as the world’s leading 
advocate of freedom, democracy and human rights is looking increasingly 
threadbare, and many senior US officials and politicians are surely 
looking for a long term way out – no matter what praise, money and 
weaponry they shower on Israel today.

While support for Israel in Europe falls away, elsewhere in the world, 
sentiment is turning to outright hostility. Bolivia now classifies 
Israel as a /“terrrorist state”/ 
<http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/30/declaring-israel-terrorist-state-bolivia-president-ends-free-entry-for-israeli/>, 
and on 23rd July the UN Human Rights Council voted overwhelmingly 
<http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/SpecialSessions/Session21/Pages/21stSpecialSession.aspx> (only 
the US voted against) to

    “urgently dispatch an independent, international commission of
    inquiry … to investigate all violations of international
    humanitarian law and international human rights law in the Occupied
    Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, particularly in the
    occupied Gaza Strip …”

And only yesterday, the Palestinian Authority decided to accede 
<http://www.timesofisrael.com/pa-to-sign-rome-statute-of-international-criminal-court/> to 
the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court – a first move 
towards allowing the proto-state to file lawsuits against Israel for its 
alleged war crimes.

*So what does this mean?*

For now Israel can act with impunity, but not forever. Even in a few 
years time the international political climate is likely to have turned 
further against Israel and restrict its freedom of action. In short, 
Israel has a finite window of opportunity in which to impose its will on 
Gaza.

So what is Israel’s will? It could be this simple: to finish the job of 
1948, when the indigenous inhabitants of southern Palestine were 
‘ethnically cleansed’ from the land by Jewish militia, terrorised into 
abandoning their homes, towns and villages, and forced to seek refuge in 
the narrow strip of land that is Gaza.

The next step in this historic process would be to empty Gaza of its 
people. A drastic step indeed – but not an irrational one. It was all 
very well to keep 1.8 million Palestinans incarcerated in Gaza, so long 
as the land was of little value. But now, thanks to its offshore wealth, 
it’s a treasure trove.

So why can’t Israel simply take the gas, but leave the people where they 
are? In a word, rockets. So long as Hamas and other armed groups can 
target offshore gas infrastructure with their rockets, the gas is 
unexploitable. So not only must Hamas go, but the entire ‘sea’ in which 
Hamas swims (that is, the Palestinian people) must also go.

Moreover, so long as Palestinians control the territory of Gaza, they 
will also be able to assert and sustain claims of ownership of its 
offshore marine resources.

The real estate of Gaza would be an additional boon – and a highly 
valuable one, releasing 365 square kilometres of prime development land, 
including 41 kilometres of to-die-for Mediterranean coast. Estimates of 
its economic value must surely begin around $10 billion.

Israel is also severely alarmed at the impact that Hamas’s increasingly 
sophisticated rockets can have on vulnerable infrastructure: in 
particular Tel Aviv airport, which came under a partial international 
travel ban <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28457734> last week after 
a Hamas rocket landed nearby.

And more importantly, the Dimona nuclear reactor which provides Israel 
with its military plutonium. Of a salvo of three rockets targetted at 
the reactor 
<http://www.jta.org/2014/07/09/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/hamas-says-aiming-for-israels-nuclear-reactor-in-dimona> on 
9th July, only one was intercepted by Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ missile 
protection system. A successful strike on Dimona would represent an 
‘existential threat’ to Israel from the nuclear fallout that would be 
released.

If it is indeed Israel’s intention to ‘cleanse’ Gaza of its people, then 
the attacks on civilians, and vital civilian infrastructure, make 
perfect sense. So too do Netenyahu’s warnings of a /“prolonged 
offensive”/ and his call-up of another 16,000 military reservists 
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28579278>, and the US’s 
release of further munitions into the fray.

*Where would the people go?*

There does remain one unanswered question: where are all the people to 
go? One answer is that many may die. Not from direct bombing and 
shelling – the total of dead, now approaching 1,400, is well short of 
having a ‘demographic’ impact on the territory. Even if 6,000 are killed 
by the time it’s all over, that would be only 0.5% of Gaza’s population.

But what could have a demographic impact is the effect of disease. If by 
some mischance the ebola virus, or cholera were to take root in Gaza, 
with its filthy water, lack of electrical power, failed sewage system 
and demolished hospitals, a great many more would surely die, perhaps 
hundreds of thousands.

And this would also increase the pressure for the survivors to be 
removed to safety, for purely humanitarian reasons.

With appropriate financial inducements –  in all probability financed by 
the US in its ‘honest broker’ role – some could be sent to enclaves in 
the West Bank, others to Egypt, others again to Jordan, and yet more 
dispersed across the world to countries where Palestinian relatives may 
have settled. Some may even find refuge in Israel itself.

We cannot know if this really is Israel’s plan for Gaza – the true 
purpose of its Operation Protective Edge. But if it is, that would 
explain otherwise inexplicable aspects of Israel’s conduct of the war so 
far, and fit with Israel’s strategic interests.

It would be a dazzling display of Netenhayu’s proverbial /chutzpah/, and 
enormously popular with Israel’s increasingly right-wing, nationalist 
electorate. The construction boom would also create much needed housing 
and employment, and trigger a huge surge of money-making to rekindle 
Israel’s depressed economy.

And as for the principle – would Israel really contemplate such a 
wholesale theft of Palestinian land? – we already have the answer in 
Israel’s unceasing annexation of land in East Jerusalem and the West 
Bank, notably the entire Palestinian section of the Jordan Valley.

The annexation of Gaza is therefore a possibility – and one that 
Palestinians, their supporters, and the wider international community 
must consider, and decide how to respond if this is indeed the scenario 
that plays out in coming weeks and months.

/*Oliver Tickell* is the editor of The Ecologist, 
<http://www.theecologist.org/> where this essay originally appeared./

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