[News] What Actually Happened in the Iranian Presidential Election?
Anti-Imperialist News
news at freedomarchives.org
Mon Jun 22 11:37:04 EDT 2009
http://www.counterpunch.org/amin06222009.html
June 22, 2009
A Hard Look at the Numbers
What Actually Happened in the Iranian Presidential Election?
By ESAM AL-AMIN
Since the June 12 Iranian presidential elections,
Iran "experts have mushroomed like bacteria in a
Petri dish. So here is a quiz for all those
instant experts. Which major country has elected
more presidents than any in the world since 1980?
Further, which nation is the only one that held
ten presidential elections within thirty years of its revolution?
The answer to both questions, of course, is Iran.
Since 1980, it has elected six presidents, while
the U.S. is a close second with five, and France
at three. In addition, the U.S. held four
presidential elections within three decades of its revolution to Irans ten.
The Iranian elections have unified the left and
the right in the West and unleashed harsh
criticisms and attacks from the outraged
politicians to the indignant mainstream media.
Even the blogosphere has joined this battle with
near uniformity, on the side of Irans
opposition, which is quite rare in cyberspace.
Much of the allegations of election fraud have
been just that: unsubstantiated accusations. No
one has yet been able to provide a solid shred of
evidence of wide scale fraud that would have
garnered eleven million votes for one candidate over his opponent.
So lets analyze much of the evidence that is available to date.
More than thirty pre-election polls were
conducted in Iran since President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and his main opponent, former Prime
Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, announced their
candidacies in early March 2009. The polls
varied widely between the two opponents, but if
one were to average their results, Ahmadinejad
would still come out on top. However, some of the
organizations sponsoring these polls, such as
Iranian Labor News Agency and Tabnak, admit
openly that they have been allies of Mousavi, the
opposition, or the so-called reform movement.
Their numbers were clearly tilted towards Mousavi
and gave him an unrealistic advantage of over 30
per cent in some polls. If such biased polls were
excluded, Ahmadinejads average over Mousavi would widen to about 21 points.
On the other hand, there was only one poll
carried out by a western news organization. It
was jointly commissioned by the BBC and ABC News,
and conducted by an independent entity called the
Center for Public Opinion (CPO) of the New
America Foundation. The CPO has a reputation of
conducting accurate opinion polls, not only in
Iran, but across the Muslim world since 2005. The
poll, conducted a few weeks before the elections,
predicted an 89 percent turnout rate. Further, it
showed that Ahmadinejad had a nationwide advantage of two to one over Mousavi.
How did this survey compare to the actual
results? And what are the possibilities of wide scale election fraud?
According to official results, there were 46.2
million registered voters in Iran. The turnout
was massive, as predicted by the CPO. Almost 39.2
million Iranians participated in the elections
for a turn out rate of 85 percent, in which about
38.8 million ballots were deemed valid (about
400,000 ballots were left blank). Officially,
President Ahmadinejad received 24.5 million votes
to Mousavis 13.2 million votes, or 62.6 per cent
to 33.8 per cent of the total votes,
respectively. In fact, this result mirrored the
2005 elections when Ahmadinejad received 61.7 per
cent to former President Hashemi Rafsanjanis
35.9 per cent in the runoff elections. Two other
minor candidates, Mehdi Karroubi and Mohsen
Rezaee, received the rest of the votes in this election.
Shortly after the official results were announced
Mousavis supporters and Western political
pundits cried foul and accused the government of
election fraud. The accusations centered around
four themes. First, although voting had been
extended several hours due to the heavy turnout,
it was alleged that the elections were called too
quickly from the time the polls were closed, with
more than 39 million ballots to count.
Second, these critics insinuated that election
monitors were biased or that, in some instances,
the opposition did not have its own monitors
present during the count. Third, they pointed out
that it was absurd to think that Mousavi, who
descended from the Azerbaijan region in northwest
Iran, was defeated handily in his own hometown.
Fourth, the Mousavi camp charged that in some
polling stations, ballots ran out and people were turned away without voting.
The next day, Mosuavi and the two other defeated
candidates lodged 646 complaints to the Guardian
Council, the entity charged with overseeing the
integrity of the elections. The Council promised
to conduct full investigations of all the
complaints. By the following morning, a copy of a
letter by a low-level employee in the Interior
Ministry sent to Supreme Guide Ali Khamanei, was
widely circulating around the world. (Western
politicians and media outlets like to call him
Supreme Leader but no such title exists in Iran.)
The letter stated that Mousavi had won the
elections, and that Ahmadinejad had actually come
in third. It also promised that the elections
were being fixed in favor of Ahmadinejad per
Khamaneis orders. It is safe to assume that the
letter was a forgery since an unidentified
low-level employee would not be the one
addressing Ayatollah Khamanaei. Robert Fisk of
The Independent reached the same conclusion by
casting grave doubts that Ahmadinejad would score
third garnering less than 6 million votes in
such an important election- as alleged in the forged letter.
There were a total of 45,713 ballot boxes that
were set up in cities, towns and villages across
Iran. With 39.2 million ballots cast, there were
less than 860 ballots per box. Unlike other
countries where voters can cast their ballots on
several candidates and issues in a single
election, Iranian voters had only one choice to
consider: their presidential candidate. Why would
it take more than an hour or two to count 860
ballots per poll? After the count, the results
were then reported electronically to the Ministry of the Interior in Tehran.
Since 1980, Iran has suffered an eight-year
deadly war with Iraq, a punishing boycott and
embargo, and a campaign of assassination of
dozens of its lawmakers, an elected president and
a prime minister from the group Mujahideen Khalq
Organization. (MKO is a deadly domestic violent
organization, with headquarters in France, which
seeks to topple the government by force.) Despite
all these challenges, the Islamic Republic of
Iran has never missed an election during its
three decades. It has conducted over thirty
elections nationwide. Indeed, a tradition of
election orderliness has been established, much
like election precincts in the U.S. or boroughs
in the U.K. The elections in Iran are organized,
monitored and counted by teachers and
professionals including civil servants and retirees (again much like the U.S.)
There has not been a tradition of election fraud
in Iran. Say what you will about the system of
the Islamic Republic, but its elected legislators
have impeached ministers and borked nominees of
several Presidents, including Ahmadinejad.
Rubberstamps, they are not. In fact, former
President Mohammad Khatami, considered one of the
leading reformists in Iran, was elected president
by the people, when the interior ministry was run
by archconservatives. He won with over 70 percent
of the vote, not once, but twice.
When it comes to elections, the real problem in
Iran is not fraud but candidates access to the
ballots (a problem not unique to the country,
just ask Ralph Nader or any other third party
candidate in the U.S.) It is highly unlikely that
there was a huge conspiracy involving tens of
thousands of teachers, professionals and civil
servants that somehow remained totally hidden and unexposed.
Moreover, while Ahmadinejad belongs to an active
political party that has already won several
elections since 2003, Mousavi is an independent
candidate who emerged on the political scene just
three months ago, after a 20-year hiatus. It was
clear during the campaign that Ahmadinejad had a
nationwide campaign operation. He made over sixty
campaign trips throughout Iran in less than
twelve weeks, while his opponent campaigned only
in the major cities, and lacked a sophisticated campaign apparatus.
It is true that Mousavi has an Azeri background.
But the CPO poll mentioned above, and published
before the elections, noted that its survey
indicated that only 16 per cent of Azeri Iranians
will vote for Mr. Mousavi. By contrast, 31 per
cent of the Azeris claim they will vote for Mr.
Ahmadinejad. In the end, according to official
results, the election in that region was much
closer than the overall result. In fact, Mousavi
won narrowly in the West Azerbaijan province but
lost the region to Ahmadinejad by a 45 to 52 per
cent margin (or 1.5 to 1.8 million votes).
However, the double standard applied by Western
news agencies is striking. Richard Nixon trounced
George McGovern in his native state of South
Dakota in the 1972 elections. Had Al Gore won his
home state of Tennessee in 2000, no one would
have cared about a Florida recount, nor would
there have been a Supreme Court case called Bush
v. Gore. If Vice-Presidential candidate John
Edwards had won the states he was born and raised
in (South and North Carolina), President John
Kerry would now be serving his second term. But
somehow, in Western newsrooms Middle Eastern
people choose their candidates not on merit, but on the basis of their tribe.
The fact that minor candidates such as Karroubi
would garner fewer votes than expected, even in
their home regions as critics charge, is not out
of the ordinary. Many voters reach the conclusion
that they do not want to waste their votes when
the contest is perceived to be between two major
candidates. Karroubi indeed received far fewer
votes this time around than he did in 2005,
including in his hometown. Likewise, Ross Perot
lost his home state of Texas to Bob Dole of
Kansas in 1996, while in 2004, Ralph Nader
received one eighth of the votes he had four years earlier.
Some observers note that when the official
results were being announced, the margin between
the candidates held steady throughout the count.
In fact, this is no mystery. Experts say that
generally when 3-5 per cent of the votes from a
given region are actually counted, there is a 95
per cent confidence level that such result will
hold firm. As for the charge that ballots ran out
and some people were turned away, it is worth
mentioning that voting hours were extended four
times in order to allow as many people as
possible the opportunity to vote. But even if all
the people who did not vote, had actually voted
for Mousavi (a virtual impossibility), that would
be 6.93 million additional votes, much less than
the 11 million vote difference between the top two candidates.
Ahmadinejad is certainly not a sympathetic
figure. He is an ideologue, provocative, and
sometimes behaving imprudently. But to
characterize the struggle in Iran as a battle
between democratic forces and a dictator, is to
exhibit total ignorance of Irans internal
dynamics, or to deliberately distort them. There
is no doubt that there is a significant segment
of Iranian society, concentrated around major
metropolitan areas, and comprising many young
people, that passionately yearns for social
freedoms. They are understandably angry because
their candidate came up short. But it would be a
huge mistake to read this domestic disagreement
as an uprising against the Islamic Republic, or
as a call to embark on a foreign policy that
would accommodate the West at the expense of
Irans nuclear program or its vital interests.
Nations display respect to other nations only
when they respect their sovereignty. If any
nation, for instance, were to dictate the United
States economic, foreign or social policies,
Americans would be indignant. When France, under
President Chirac opposed the American adventure
in Iraq in 2003, some U.S. Congressmen renamed a
favorite fast food from French Fries to Freedom
Fries. They made it known that the French were unwelcome in the U.S.
The U.S. has a legacy of interference in Irans
internal affairs, notably when it toppled the
democratically elected government of Prime
Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953. This act, of
which most Americans are unaware, is ingrained in
every Iranian from childhood. It is the main
cause of much of their perpetual anger at the
U.S. It took 56 years for an American president
to acknowledge this illegal act, when Obama did so earlier this month in Cairo.
Therefore, it would be a colossal mistake to
interfere in Irans internal affairs yet again.
President Obama is wise to leave this matter to
be resolved by the Iranians themselves. Political
expediency by the Republicans or pro-Israel
Democrats will be extremely dangerous and will
yield serious repercussions. Such reckless
conduct by many in the political class and the
media appears to be a blatant attempt to demonize
Iran and its current leadership, in order to
justify any future military attack by Israel if
Iran does not give up its nuclear ambition.
President Obamas declarations in Cairo are now
being aptly recalled. Regarding Iran, he said, I
recognize it will be hard to overcome decades of
mistrust, but we will proceed with courage,
rectitude, and resolve. There will be many
issues to discuss between our two countries, and
we are willing to move forward without
preconditions on the basis of mutual respect.
But the first sign of respect is to let the
Iranians sort out their differences without any overt or covert interference.
Esam Al-Amin can be reached at
<http://us.mc365.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=alamin1919@gmail.com>alamin1919 at gmail.com
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