[News] Text of the parts of the US National Intelligence Estimate report declassified

[Anti-Imperialist News]

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/96B66353-9F35-4685-B6F9-5DF1F25A1C35.htm

Full text: US intelligence findings
by
Wednesday 27 September 2006 6:15 AM GMT

The full text of the parts of the US National Intelligence Estimate 
report declassified on Tuesday.

The document was written in April, before the death of al-Qaeda in 
Iraq leader,  Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the 
leadership of al-Qaeda and disrupted its operations; however, we 
judge that al-Qaeda will continue to pose the greatest threat by a 
single terrorist organization to the homeland and US interests abroad.

We also assess that the global jihadist movement, which includes 
al-Qaeda, affiliated and independent terrorist groups and emerging 
networks and cells, is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a 
large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists 
identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of 
Muslims, are increasing in number and geographic dispersion.

If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad 
will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

Dispersed groups

Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in 
Muslim-majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances 
jihadists exploit.

Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted 
programmes aimed at the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and 
continued pressure on al-Qaeda, could erode support for the jihadists.

We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralised, lacks a 
coherent global strategy and is becoming more diffuse.

New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are 
increasingly likely to emerge.

The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it 
harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalised cells 
will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly 
abroad but also in the homeland.

Iraq impact

The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking 
Western interests.

Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe 
facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated 
by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of 
terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there 
would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

The Iraq conflict has become the "cause celebre" for jihadists, 
breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world, and 
cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement.

Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, 
to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on 
the fight.

Unpopular politics

We assess that the underlying factors fuelling the spread of the 
movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the 
duration of the timeframe of this estimate.

Four underlying factors are fuelling the spread of the jihadist movement:

1. Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of 
Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation and a sense of 
powerlessness.

2. The Iraq jihad.

3. The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social and political 
reforms in many Muslim majority nations.

4. Pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims, all of which 
jihadists exploit.

Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged 
that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread 
of the movement.

They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related 
conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists' radical ideology, the 
emergence of respected voices of moderation and criticism of the 
violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens.

The jihadists' greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate 
political solution - an ultraconservative interpretation of 
Shariah-based governance spanning the Muslim world - is unpopular 
with the vast majority of Muslims.

Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by 
the jihadists' propaganda would help to divide them from the 
audiences they seek to persuade.

Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious 
interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that 
could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist 
ideology: peaceful political activism.

This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of 
broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the 
ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support.

In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful 
weapon in the war on terror.

Al-Zarqawi

Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require 
co-ordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to 
capture or kill terrorist leaders.

If democratic reform efforts in Muslim-majority nations progress over 
the next five years, political participation probably would drive a 
wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the 
political process to achieve their local objectives.

Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing 
transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.

Al-Qaeda, now merged with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's network, is 
exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors 
and to maintain its leadership role.

The loss of main leaders, particularly Osama bin Laden, Ayman 
al-Zawahiri and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause 
the group to fracture into smaller groups.

Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the 
mission, the loss of these main leaders would exacerbate
strains and disagreements.

We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a 
time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qaeda.

Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks 
against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and 
present a global threat.

The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qaeda 
in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts 
on external operations.

Other affiliated Sunni-extremist organizations, such as Jemaah 
Islamiya, Ansar al-Sunnah and several North African groups, unless 
countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable 
of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional 
areas of operation.

Wider concern

We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the homeland than 
does al-Qaeda, but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies 
and to US interests abroad.

The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local 
regime targets and regional or global ones.

We judge that most jihadist groups - both well-known and newly formed 
- will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks, focused 
primarily on soft targets, to implement their asymmetric warfare 
strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist 
attacks in urban environments.

Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership 
for jihadists pursuing these tactics.

(Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapon) capabilities 
will continue to be sought by jihadist groups.

While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active 
state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to 
prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists.

Anti-US and anti-globalisation sentiment is on the rise and fuelling 
other radical ideologies.

This could prompt some leftist, nationalist or separatist groups to 
adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests.

The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, 
and more anonymously in the internet age, raising the likelihood of 
surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may 
be difficult to pinpoint.

We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the 
internet to communicate, propagandise, recruit, train and obtain 
logistical and financial support.


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